tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33798895117002497982024-03-05T10:47:04.906-08:00Global Understanding Institute<p><i>Let us live together in harmony</i></p>
<p>Global Understanding was formed by a group of like-minded individuals, who wish to see a peaceful, multicultural, pluralistic world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behavior; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.</p>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.comBlogger119125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-64747423275236448062009-11-08T10:31:00.002-08:002009-11-08T10:32:00.523-08:00Armistice Day, Veteran's DayThis was posted by me as a comment to another journal on another web site. The writer wrote about Veteran's Day, and made what I considered a few minor, yet specific errors in her otherwise well-written essay.<div id="post_content_4990471235722453445" class="entry_text"> <p>First error: <em>"The holiday was established as Armistice Day in 1918 to honor soldiers who have served this country in the Air Force, Army, Marines and Navy."</em></p> <p>Second error: <em>"It’s not a day of remembrance, but of recognition."</em></p> <p>I thought I'd put my comment here in my journal as well. First, to give paragraph breaks. ;) Secondly, so others who read my own journal may see where I stand on the issue.</p> <p>~~~</p> <p>Just a point of historical correction. The first Armistice Day was declared in 1919 by Woodrow Wilson to commemorate the end of the war. As the years went on, Congress decided to formalize the purpose of the Holiday, and passed an Act of Congress. As Wikipedia puts it: An Act (52 Stat. 351; 5 U. S. Code, Sec. 87a) approved May 13, 1938, made the 11th of November in each year a legal holiday; "a day to be dedicated to the cause of world peace and to be thereafter celebrated and known as 'Armistice Day'."</p> <p>It was only after World War II and Korea that Armistice Day changed in meaning, from the dedication to world peace, to the commemoration of Veteran's service. In a way, I believe that this disenfranchised many people, such as the civilian contributors to wartime efforts, and those that strive for peaceful outcomes -- to ameliorate present conflicts and prevent future ones. If we returned to the original intent, then the vast majority of the world, civilians and soldiers alike, can feel invested in the cause of the day.</p> <p>Lastly, I must correct this point of yours. For it is a day of remembrance. Indeed, around the nations of the British Commonwealth, it is still called "Remembrance Day," in commemoration of the Armistice and those that fought and died to achieve the peace that follows war. To remember, they wear the red poppy, symbolizing the fallen soldiers, strewn like flowers on the field.</p> <p>Call me a traditionalist, but I believe that we should all remember that 20 million died in the First World War. 72 million in the Second World War. And, especially in the latter conflict, and to the present day, it is the civilians who suffer the vast majority of casualties. A mother huddled in a house, sheltering her children from the onslaught around her, knows the same -- if not greater -- threats and fears of battle as any soldier. All-too-often she and her children suffer the same fate the soldiers do. Armistice Day is now called Veteran's Day. Yet truly recall and reflect this year on the origins of the holiday, thank you.</p> <p>~~~</p> <p>This is not to disrespect the contributions and sacrifices of anyone in uniform. Indeed, anyone who knows my past will know the work I have done in analysis and commemoration of military history. Yet so long as we segregate the holiday to honor only those who wore a uniform (about 10% of the U.S. population), it bifurcates our populace, with the majority of the civilian population seeming only to mark the day as one of increased shopping discounts. How do we ensure that all people would reflect on the dangers of our world, and those who strove, and still work to keep us safe from them?</p> <p>Ninety one years ago on this 11th of November was the original Armistice of the Great War. There was not a Second World War yet. Indeed, they had hoped that it would be the "war to end all wars." Sadly, there would be no "peace for our time." And through this very day, chaotic, violent wars are still being fought in dozens of conflict zones spanning both hemispheres. What can we do between now and the 100th Anniversary of the Armistice, the 11th of November 2018?</p> <p>For me, and for some certain friends of mine, we are returning to an original intent. We are personally referring henceforth to the day as Armistice Day. Not out of spite to any veteran, but to remind all -- civilian and military -- that the origin of the national, indeed, global holiday was to ensure that we never again commit our nations to the horrific destructive methods and ends we, and our forefathers, sought in the past. That we seek a world where the amelioration and end to such horrors is a goal and an ethical standard we all must commit ourselves to.</p> <p>So how about you? Would you support returning to the original intent of the holiday, and to call it Armistice Day? Should we specifically commemorate the uniformed veterans only, or should we consider the entirety of those involved -- civil government as well as military, those who serve in NGOs, the war correspondents, the peacemakers and the peacekeepers, the civilians and refugees. Can we use this day, once per year, to honor all those who suffer from war, and those who contribute to the cessation of hostilities. Can we commit ourselves, united again to the cause of world peace?</p> </div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-49890667114677074472009-07-08T21:13:00.000-07:002009-07-08T22:23:47.611-07:00MSNBC: World Running Amok?Iraq and Afghanistan. Pakistan. Iran. Honduras. Nigeria. Somalia. Uganda. Palestine. The list goes on-and-on.<br /><br />On MSNBC, the question was raised as to whether the world is running amok these days. Is there greater violence? And is the new media feeding the unrest?<br /><br /><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/X2a_S4x_GSI&hl=en&fs=1&"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/X2a_S4x_GSI&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object><br /><br />In a way, yes. Media is being used by people for propagandistic reasons: to sow ethnic tensions, breed distrust, and to foment conflict. However, that can be done even more effectively through traditional mass media: print and television and radio broadcast systems.<br /><br />For centuries, atrocities and uprisings have been the source of civil changes. Paintings, printed cartoons and articles in newspapers, and popular songs inspired, and were inspired by, the American and French Revolutions.<br /><br />Goya was commissioned to depict the <a href="http://www.jmu.edu/evision/archive/volume1/essays/connell.html">atrocities of the Napoleonic Wars</a> and their impact on Spain in the 19th Century.<br /><br />A century later, in the same nation, Picasso painted his famous <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guernica_%28painting%29">Guernica</a> in the teeth of the Spanish Civil War, capturing the shattered spirit of his nation by depicting the <a href="http://www.pbs.org/treasuresoftheworld/guernica/glevel_1/1_bombing.html">bombing of a village</a> by Fascist forces.<br /><br />The 20th Century added the radio report and movie newsreel, which affected the popular support of World War II. And in the latter half of the century, television reports dramatically altered public perceptions of many conflicts, from Vietnam to the Balkans.<br /><br />So today we have podcasts from battlezones, and Twitter and YouTube revolutions. Should we expect any less?<br /><br />During the history of the world, powers-that-be and counter-regime movements all used the available technology to promulgate their visions and foment conflict and raise their points of view to their domestic audiences and to appeal to the masses overseas. To its credit, at times media has also been used to sooth tensions, promote unity and call for peace and resolution of violence.<br /><br />Conflicts have gone on for millennia, so human violence is not new. The technology to conduct or put down civil instability and insurrection is more advanced today. The technology to report about such civil disorder and martial action is more advanced and permeated globally than ever before.<br /><br />In absolute terms, I would argue that global violence is increasing greatly in potential terms, but has so far only been bubbling up modestly in actual incidence rates.<br /><br />There has never before been 6.7 billion people in the world. Thus the total amount of potential and actual violence is greater these days simply because there are more people who can, and do, enter into conflict.<br /><br />Yet we should also thank our lucky stars. While we have many regional wars around the world, we have so far, fortunately, avoided an all-out regional or full-scale world war between major powers, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction.<br /><br />The question is: what are the desires of people today to use their communications technology? To resist unjust oppression, to promote truth, or to stir ancient enmities and fuel bitterness based on falsehoods? What are the aims and purposes? What is the trend globally towards raising the bars of tension and violence, or to find civil and just solutions to the world’s problems without resorting to the fist, the bullet, the bomb, or the IED.<br /><br />One thing is certain. Between 1914-1918 there was the First World War. Between 1939-1945 we had World War II. Since then, though anti-colonial wars and the Cold War, and various regional conflicts have been bloody and brutal, we have avoided further nuclear war, and we have avoided a total war on a global basis between superpowers.<br /><br />Today’s violence is troubling because it harkens back to the days of the Balkans Wars that proceeded World War I, or the expansionist wars and jostling for global dominance that proceeded World War II. Many regional wars can each become flashpoints for larger conflicts.<br /><br />Each conflict, when taken in isolation, can be rationalized for why it exists. From the uprisings against the oil-backed regime in Nigeria, to the Muslim extremist conflicts of Taliban forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the violent mobs of Uyghurs in China. Solutions to such chronic problems are more elusive, especially when the populations involved would rather remain in conflict rather than seek mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence.<br /><br />Americans can sometimes be at odds with our own nature when it comes to consideration of other nation’s civil unrest and uprisings. It is natural rebellion against tyranny. Should we support such causes, much as we venerate the original American Revolution? Or is it the work of power brokers and even criminal elements disguising themselves under layers of propaganda capitalizing on popular unrest?<br /><br />Media is required to see the acts of repression of brutal governments. Media is required to expose agents provocateur bent on causing violence regardless of whether it is justified or not, for their own private agenda’s benefit. Media both promotes the acts of terrorism by making them more visible, and it also makes possible states to repress civil disapproval through propaganda and social controls. Yet media is also required to put all such stories in context and perspective.<br /><br />The world has not yet run amok. Not yet. It is vital for humanity to collectively discuss what needs to happen to prevent a global war over the course of this century as we suffered from in prior centuries. It is appropriate to confer, both as political regimes and as private citizens and public groups to devise strategies to prevent an unprecedented risk to the billions of people around the world presently and in the decades to come.<br /><br />It is also folly to believe good wishes and thoughts alone can prevent calamity. For everyone who benefits from a peaceful, stable world economy, there are those for whom the concept of peace is anathema. The harmony and stability do not serve their ends.<br /><br />We must also allow for the just expression of grievances and changes to social structure over time. There must be permissible “safety valves” of civil unrest to allow peoples to collectively choose their own desired states rather than live with domineering regimes that offer “peace and stability” in false measures through insidious means. For one person’s peaceful and pleasant society is often another person’s brutally repressive regime.<br /><br />This past week has been the celebration of the U.S. Independence Day. A day that marked a declaration to the world of the principles of liberty and the ends to which people would go to oppose repressive tyranny. Yet increasingly, many people around the world worry that the U.S. has become the same sort of dominant, repressive power that we once fought to overthrow.<br /><br />I marvel and worry this year. Not so much for the survival of the centuries-old American experiment in democracy, as for the vitality and long-term viability of the new hatchling popular movements for justice around the world. Will they lead to peaceful redress of civil grievances, or plunge the planet into countless fractious civil wars?<br /><br />Will we, as a civilization, be trapped by our centuries of past means to solve our problems, or will we evolve? Unless we devise new means to settle differences, we will have a hundred Guernicas played out through Twitter and YouTube every year.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-75147785148084496122009-07-01T22:03:00.000-07:002009-07-01T22:40:18.332-07:00Reflections on the Honduras Presidential Removal<span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:100%;" >The following comes from a Facebook thread regarding</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;"> the situation of </span><a style="font-family: georgia;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manuel_Zelaya">Manuel Zelaya</a> </span><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:100%;" >begun by Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia. His own opening comment was as follows:</span><br /><blockquote style="font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">Baffled by Honduras situation. The Supreme Court and the democratically elected Congress voted unanimously to remove President Zeleya [sic], who was in open defiance of a court decision about an illegal dismissal of the military command, and about to stage an illegal 'election'. And yet, this action is universally condemned internationally as a "coup"? There must be facts of which I am unaware?</span> — Jimmy Wales (30 June 2009 6:17 pm)<br /></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">He later accepted the “friendly amendment” of the correct spelling of “Zelaya.”</span><br /><br /></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">It reminded me of the quote by Benjamin Franklin wittily delivered in the musical </span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >1776</span><span style="font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-style: italic;">:<br /></span></span></span><blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style=";font-family:georgia;font-size:10;" ><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:100%;" >Why, Mr. Dickinson, I’m surprised at you! You should know that rebellion is </span><span style="font-size:100%;"><em style="font-style: italic;">always</em></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-size:100%;" > legal in the first person – such as ‘our’ rebellion. It is only in the third person – ‘their’ rebellion – that it is illegal.</span><br /><div style="text-align: right;"><span style="font-size:100%;">— Benjamin Franklin</span></div></span></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">Another Facebook friend of his stated:</span><br /></span><blockquote style="font-weight: bold;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: italic; font-weight: normal;">i think the point everybody is missing is that the UN et al cannot condone a government that has seized power in a coup -- by taking the president at gunpoint in his pyjamas. If the president was acting illegally -- as zelaya apparently was -- impeach him dont threaten to murder him and cart him off to costa rica. The Honuduran military has done far worse than Zelaya. Two wrongs don't make a right and other cliches.</span><br /></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">Reflecting from a generally naïve point-of-view</span><a style="font-family: georgia;" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manuel_Zelaya"></a><span style="font-family:georgia;">, I responded:</span><br /></span><blockquote style="font-weight: bold;font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: normal; font-style: italic;">It was a coup, though a bloodless one. The proper legal method to get rid of him would have been impeachment, with arrest by a civil authority. The military of nations generally are limited constitutionally because the President is generally considered C-in-C. When you overthrow your boss, it is a rebellion. When the military overthrow a president, rather than a legislature, it violates standard civil government checks-and-balances. Thus, technically, a coup.</span><br /></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">In response to my thoughts, another direct reply was made to the thread:</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" ></span></span><blockquote style="font-family:georgia;"><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-style: italic;">Peter, ... the boss of the civil authorities (e.g., the police) that would have to carry the arrest is also the president. By your reasoning it would still be a rebellion. </span></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >If a subordinate gets a court order to arrest the boss, what should he/she do?</span><span style="font-size:100%;"><br /></span></blockquote><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-family:georgia;">Which is a good point. So tonight I wanted to dig a little deeper. I happened upon a good friend who was perfect for the necessary detective work! Tonight, I replied as follows:<br /></span></span><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" ></span><blockquote><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >I am sitting tonight with a good friend who is a very educated socio-political academic from Venezuela. He is helping me go over the Honduran Constitution.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >The biggest problem is that there is *no* clear provision in the lengthy document on how the various powers maintain checks and balances. There is no direct clause for how to conduct the removal of the Presidente, or most any other elected official. Impeachment is not mentioned, per se.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >However, there are a few clauses to work with, primarily: "...la usurpación de los poderes constituidos se tipifican como delitos de Traición a la Patria." Usurpation of constitutional powers is treason.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >Thus, if you disobey the Constitution, no one need obey you. This is the argument of the Supreme Court. They can theoretically declare anything unconstitutional, thus treasonable, and can immediately have their judgments put into effect. There is no override on their decisions, except by a popular referendum for a constitutional revision.</span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" ></span><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >In review, the decision of the Honduran Supreme Court seems tacitly legal, though highly disputable.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >According to one assessment (CountryStudies.us):</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >"Honduran constitutions are generally held to have little bearing on Honduran political reality because they are considered aspirations or ideals rather than legal instruments of a working government."</span><br /><br /><a href="http://countrystudies.us/honduras/84.htm"><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >http://countrystudies.us/honduras/84.htm</span><br /></a><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >For the Constitution itself:</span><br /><br /><a href="http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Honduras/hond05.html"><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Honduras/hond05.html</span></a><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >I still maintain my view that this was a quasi-legal coup. While arguably a de jure power of the Supreme Court, it is could be just as arguable that the Supreme Court usurped and overstepped their Constitutional authority. They just had the backing of the military.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:georgia;" >Thus, quite conforming to a coup as per Wikipedia: "A coup consists of the infiltration of a small, but critical, segment of the state apparatus, which is then used to displace the government from its control of the remainder.”<br /></span></blockquote>The truth of the matter is that the Honduran Constitution is a rather poorly-written set of rules to govern from. Anyone used to playing diplomatic strategy games could spend days arguing about the gaps and fuzzy parts. Eventually the consensus of the players would be that the game seriously needs a second edition of the rules, and, in the meanwhile, a full-blown set of errata and addendum.<br /><br />While the definitions of “high crimes and misdemeanors” is elastic and arguable, the U.S. Constitution has a far more explicit, albeit very brief, method to determine what to do in case of such crises of confidence in a chief executive.<br /><br />In Honduras, lacking such explicit methods for removal, the national Supreme Court basically has the tacit de jure power to do what they did. It may indeed rub many people the wrong way, given cultural and political biases towards what we are familiar with in our own systems.<br /><br />I would be quite interested to hear other opinions on such a topic. Was this a de facto coup d’etat, or a de jure removal of an executive in broach of his constitutional duties?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-65356932569668790452009-07-01T22:00:00.000-07:002009-07-01T22:03:07.356-07:00Mea Culpa - A Hopefully Forgiveable Leave of AbsenceDue to economic requirements during this recession, I was forced to work quite a bit on other duties for the past two months, often seven-days-a-week, and thus was unable to attend to the requirements of world-watching that is implicit in the Global Understanding Movement. Thus you have my mea culpa maxima.<br /><br />However, I have not been exactly idle.<br /><br />Stay tuned! More to come!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-37444502236019577522009-05-05T21:05:00.000-07:002009-05-06T07:01:27.895-07:00Swat Valley: The Pot Boils OverAny pretensions for an uneasy truce in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swat_%28Pakistan%29">Swat Valley</a> between the Pakistani government and the Taliban <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090506/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan">came to an abrupt end today</a>, as the Taliban began to seize government buildings, and fighting erupted in Mingora, the main city of the valley.<br /><br />Taliban militants began to siege the police building and many government offices were taken over. 46 government paramilitaries were reported to <a href="http://www.centredaily.com/news/world/story/1270869.html">still hold the city’s electrical grid station</a>. At least <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/05/pakistan.taliban/">18 civilians were reported wounded</a> in the crossfire. Over the past week, sporadic fighting and casualties were reported around many other districts of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malakand">Malakand</a>, a region in Pakistan’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NWFP">Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP)</a>. That fighting now seems to be intensifying considerably across the NWFP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).<br /><br />Indeed, the government is <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/05/2009558549617908.html">encouraging citizens to flee for their safety</a>, according to reports from Al Jazeera. CNN reports that a major offensive may begin as soon as Wednesday, 6 May 2009. As soon as the government warning was issued, residents of Mingora began to pile on buses to escape the expected fighting. The Pakistani government predicts that as many as 500,000 people may flee the region in coming days.<br /><br />This number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) would exceed the numbers that fled in the wake of prior conflicts in the Swat Valley last year. In February 2009, it was reported that over <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5je49LdBHNOF_j8oQXJoSsgb9rLZA">337,000 had fled ahead of the fighting</a>. Though most of those returned to their homes after the cease fire between the Taliban and the government.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Forces Involved</span><br /><br />UPDATE: Taliban forces cited in the AP as 7,000; Pakistani military forces at 15,000. (6 May 2009)<br /><ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Taliban:</span> The militants are believed to have forces of about <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090506/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan">7,000 insurgents</a> in the Swat Valley and environs. According to the Pakistani military,<a href="http://www.asiantribune.com/?q=node/17230"> 400 Taliban</a> had advanced into the Buner area and had put up stiff resistance. Many of those were killed in the past week’s counterinsurgency by government forces.</li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pakistani military</span>: Frontier Corps province forces bolstered by heavy armor, artillery and paratroopers positioned around the Swat Valley in preparation for an offensive. Totaling approximately <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090506/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan">15,000 troops</a>. While the Pakistani Army has a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/5245457/Analysis-Pakistan-still-learning-how-to-fight-insurgents.html">total force of 550,000 regular troops</a>, there has not yet been a dramatic shift in defensive posture in the nation. About half of Pakistan’s forces, approximately <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/03/AR2009050301847.html">250,000 soldiers, remain deployed against the border with India</a>, Pakistan’s traditional enemy.</li></ul><ul><li><span style="font-weight: bold;">Pakistani police</span>: This force has proven so far to be the least reliable of the government forces. When the Taliban first advanced through the Swat Valley region, <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-05-05-pakistancops_N.htm">700 of total 1,700 police officers abandoned their posts</a>. However, they are regrouping since their initial defeats. In the NWFP capital of Peshawar, antiterrorist police forces <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/world/asia/06pstan.html?em">killed 88 suspected terrorists</a> in the past few months.<br /></li></ul> The Taliban claims that it now controls 90% of Swat. However, if it spread its 7,000 troops across the Swat district, which is 5,337 square km (an area about the size of the state of Delaware), that would equate to a bit more than 1 man per square kilometer. It is unlikely there are any Taliban in much of the province. Instead, based on various reports, the more likely situation is that the Taliban are grouped in central locations: blocking major roads, seizing strategic facilities and key strongpoints, and patrolling the capital and other urban areas.<br /><br />The question for both sides will be the amount of resolve, numbers, and reserves they bring with them to the conflict. This is not the first time the Pakistani military has attempted to wrest back control of Swat Valley. In the past, the Taliban has been able to keep control of this central and key region.<br /><br />This time seems different. The government and the Pakistani people seem to be recognizing the degree to which the government has lost control of its territory. And the people of Swat seem somewhat reticent to greet the Taliban as welcome liberators. Part of this may be due to the presence of foreign fighters: Uzbeks and Tajiks.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Prospects for Peace</span><br /><br />Not good, to begin with. The Taliban seem unapologetic and ready for a fight. For its own part, the Pakistani military seems ready to flex its considerable muscles and is likewise ready for a fight, albeit somewhat reluctantly.<br /><br />The Taliban has been, so far, the mouse that roared. Its few thousand irregular insurgents, armed with the ubiquitous small arms of AK-47 and RPGs, have in the past beaten off poorly-paid Pakistani provincial forces, police and paramilitaries. Now, the regular Pakistani military seems to be bringing out, quite literally, its big guns for the upcoming fight.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-34145104775761590922009-05-03T21:44:00.000-07:002009-05-03T22:33:39.047-07:00Pakistan's Swat Valley SimmersIn Pakistan’s northern <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090504/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan">Swat Valley this week</a>, the Pakistani Army and the Taliban have both been pushing and prodding each other in a turf war. Likewise, the Pakistani Army went on the full offensive across <a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/05/20095265816730115.html">Swat, Buner and Dir</a>.<br /><br />The Army announced that it had recently killed 80 militants, including local Taliban commanders; a total of 170 - 200 have been killed since the Army’s offensive was launched on 26 April. The Taliban retaliated by <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKTRE5421AQ20090503">beheading two captured soldiers</a>.<br /><br />Furthermore, as proof of the violation of the peace deal brokered earlier in the year, the Pakistani Army <a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hkiMxbHNH0BqgpWA2ZG6VD6wVTmAD97US0A05">announced it had captured three Taliban vehicles filled with explosives</a> that were to be used in suicide attacks. Plus, a bank had been looted, the power grid had been attacked, and a bridge was partially blown up, all laid at the doorstep of the Taliban and its forces. Overnight curfews have been imposed, but the Taliban has taken to patrolling the streets with their own armed soldiers.<br /><br />Eight Islamic <span style="font-style: italic;">Sharia</span>-law judges, known as <span style="font-style: italic;">qazis</span>, have been appointed, and a new <span style="font-style: italic;">Sharia</span> appellate court, called the Darul Qaza, has been established. Yet the Taliban is rejecting these government measures.<br /><br />The Pakistani government, for its part, seems to be preparing to use this week’s news as collective proof of the government’s good faith, and to regard the Taliban’s actions as a broach of the agreement, thereby possibly opening up a full resumption of military activities.<br /><br />Indeed, according to Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Information Minister Sufi Muhammed, with the establishment of the new Sharia-based <span style="font-style: italic;">qazi</span> courts, “<a href="http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia/2009/05/200953134926978319.html">Now anyone carrying arms would be treated as a rebel and would be prosecuted in the <span style="font-style: italic;">qazi</span> court.</a>” It is unlikely that the Taliban will comply with this government edict.<br /><br />A major concern for the conflict is the prospect of civilian casualties and refugees. According to the Sunday Times, 2,000 hostages are being held as <a href="http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Taliban-holding-villagers-as-shields-Report/articleshow/4478085.cms">human shields in Pir Baba</a>. The unrest has caused 90,000 refugees to flee the conflict zones in the NFWP; <a href="http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?a=je2qawcgfgh&title=Pakistan_s_fight_against_Taliban_displaces_30_000_people">30,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)</a> were caused from the fighting in Lower Dir alone. However, the Pakistani government has been somewhat obscure on civilian casualties.<br /><br />The Voice of America did not go into specifics of threats to the civilian populace, other than the passing reference to the <a href="http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-05-01-voa43.cfm">execution of three civilians</a>, instead focusing on the advance of Pakistani troops to the borders of Swat itself. If the Pakistani government declares the deal with the Taliban forfeit due to numerous violations, it is to be expected those troops will advance into the Swat Valley.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-20242456623083600632009-05-03T20:40:00.001-07:002009-05-03T21:13:29.253-07:00Influenza A (H1N1) Update 3 May 2009 - Some StatisticsThere are some people wondering if the media and government attention to the current <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_H1N1_flu_outbreak">Influenza A H1N1 outbreak</a> seems to be warranted, or whether there has been too much hype on the topic.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Seems Less Deadly Now<br /><br /></span>The good news is this strain has not become the “killer pandemic” that has worried epidemiologists for years. Yet it is still a cause for concern.<br /><br />Even now, a pandemic warning seems prudently warranted. Emphasis on “seems.” Out of the 935 proven cases so far, there have been 23 deaths, for a mortality rate of 2.46%. Out of the suspected 4,585 cases, there have been 101 suspected deaths; a mortality rate of 2.2%.<br /><br />The good news is that this mortality rate of 2.2% - 2.46% is as little as half that of earlier in the week, when it was <a href="http://globalunderstandinginstitute.blogspot.com/2009/04/influenza-h1n1-background-in-pandemic.html">calculated</a> to be between 3.4% - 4.3%.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">How Bad Can It Get?</span><br /><br />Influenza outbreak typically affects 5% - 20% of the population, according to the CDC. If this particular strain of A H1N1 spread worldwide to a maximal uncontrolled extent, that would equate to 335 million to 1.34 billion cases. Given a 2.2% - 2.46% mortality rate, that would equate to global deaths of 8.2 million to 32 million. This is a worst-case scenario, predicated on the mortality rate remaining at >2%, and for 100% of the world to be exposed to infection.<br /><br />By analogy, consider smaller populations. Take a subway car of 200 New Yorkers. If they all had the flu, pull two of them off the train in body bags. Take a flight of 200 people on an airliner. Pull two off in gurneys sent to the morgue. No one wants to be those two people. No public health official wants that risk.<br /><br />Those analogies would be if all 200 persons aboard that train or aircraft actually caught the H1N1 virus, and if the present mortality rate remained unchanged. A more accurate analogy would be that, out of a busy subway station or airport, as many as one subway car or aircraft out of five, or as few as one out of twenty, would eventually contain virus-carriers.<br /><br />If it was a sports stadium of 50,000 people, somewhere between 2,500 - 10,000 would get sick, and somewhere between 50 - 200 would die. Again, predicated on exposure of 100% of the attendees.<br /><br />That is what would happen if we allowed the virus to remain uncontained, if we took no precautions to prevent the spread of the disease, and if the public remained unwary to seek medical assistance.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Take Care and Due Precaution</span><br /><br />This is why minimizing exposure to the virus is so vital, and why those affected should not hesitate to seek help. The more the virus can be contained so it burns out before spreading, the better. The more people who go to the doctor when they feel as if something is just not right the better. Thus, while panic is unwarranted, precaution and care is quite important.<br /><br />The U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) has a number of recommendations for <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/preventing.htm">preventing seasonal flu</a>, and how to take care of yourself if and when you <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/takingcare.htm">catch the flu</a>.<br /><br />Global Understanding wishes everyone the best and safest of spring seasons. Let’s hope this is an emerging crisis that becomes a non-issue with proper care and due diligence.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-37893783900862860282009-04-30T09:13:00.000-07:002009-04-30T23:13:00.365-07:00Influenza A (H1N1) - A Background in PandemicMany people around the world have heard now of the outbreak of the flu, informally nicknamed the “swine flu,” or “Mexican flu,” yet which is officially designated as a strain of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_H1N1_flu_outbreak">Influenza A virus subtype H1N1</a>. It is actually a unique mutation, with a combination of four strains of flu, comprised of human, avian and two separate swine flu virus elements.<br /><br />As of this writing, the virus is confirmed to have spread across thirteen separate nations in North America (Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and the U.S.), South America (Peru), Europe (Austria, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, U.K.), Asia (Israel), and the Pacific (New Zealand). Beyond that, there are suspected cases in 25 more nations spanning every continent barring Antarctica.<br /><br />In response, the Mexican government has already decided to shutter a great deal of places of education and business, and has cancelled many events to minimize public contact. Individual schools in the United States have also closed due to localized outbreaks. Many other nations have taken extreme, seemingly irrational proactive measures, such as slaughtering pigs, or putting a ban on pork products, though there has been no evidence of a pig being infected by this strain of virus.<br /><br />As of 30 April 2009, there have been at least 3,964 suspected cases around the world, with the vast majority (2,498) occurring in Mexico. Out of those suspected cases there have been 265 cases confirmed by laboratories a being the H1N1 strain. It has caused 168 suspected deaths and 9 confirmed deaths, with most of those deaths occurring in Mexico.<br /><br />This puts the mortality of the virus, so far, between 3.4% - 4.2%.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Comparison With Other Influenza Outbreaks</span><br /><br /><a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/2003/fs211/en/">Influenza outbreaks</a> and related hospitalizations and deaths occur annually, and each flu season varies greatly. Even during mild years, influenza takes more lives on an annual basis than many other causes of death.<br /><br />According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 5-15% of populations are generally affected. Every year worldwide, three to five million people are stricken with severe illness due to influenza, and 250,000 - 500,000 die. That equates roughly to a global mortality rate of 0.004% - 0.0075% of the total world population, and 0.02% - 0.15% for those infected with the virus.<br /><br />It is sometimes not the influenza itself that kills, but the pneumonia that sets in as the body’s immune system responds. Therefore, the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) commonly combines annual mortality statistics as Pneumonia/Influenza, or “P&I,” and <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/index.htm">estimates</a> an annual death rate in the U.S. of 36,000, and hospitalizations at over 200,000. The CDC estimates between 5% - 20% of the U.S. population is affected by flu every season. Annual U.S. deaths can therefore range between 30,000 to 50,000. Which equates to an annual mortality rate between 0.01% - 0.015% of the total population, or 0.05% - 0.33% of the infected population.<br /><br />Thus note that most flu outbreaks infect a large population, but are generally mostly mildly debilitating. While deaths and hospitalizations occur, they are limited to a small percentage of the affected population; with usually far less than 1% mortality rate.<br /><br />In comparison, consider the avian flu outbreak of 2003-2009. It was caused by a very different strain of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1">A(H5N1)</a>, the total number of human cases was limited to 421, but the mortality rate was very high: 257 deaths, or 61%.<br /><br />The outbreak of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome">Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)</a> virus in 2002-2003 also serves as a comparative example. Out of 8,273 cases reported, there were 775 deaths. This equates to a mortality rate of 9.6%.<br /><br />Right now, the current rate of mortality for the A(H1N1) virus is half that of SARS, and far less than a tenth of the lethality of the avian flu outbreak.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Influenza vs. Cholera</span><br /><br />Another comparison to give pause is that of cholera in <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_02_20/en/index.html">Zimbabwe</a> and sub-Saharan Africa over the past year. According to the U.N. Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, through 2 April 2009, in Zimbabwe alone there were <a href="http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/contentCholeraZimbabwe.aspx">94,443 suspected cases of bacterial cholera and 4,127 deaths</a>, for a fatality rate of 4.3%.<br /><br />It has been confirmed to have spread to neighboring Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. Other cases are reported across sub-Sarahan Africa: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, and Togo.<br /><br />It is too early to predict the rapidity of the spread and long-term mortality rate of the present A(H1N1) virus, yet to date its mortality rate is comparable to the African cholera epidemic. However, global reaction to the cholera outbreak remains muted in comparison to the front-page news of the A(H1N1) virus.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Present and Future Considerations</span><br /><br />Unknowns still to be determined would be why the disease has proven fatal in Mexico (and one case of a Mexican child who came to the U.S. with the infection), while other cases around the world have not proven fatal.<br /><br />GlobalSecurity.org has an article analyzing the possible impact of an <a href="http://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_flu-pandemic-deaths.htm">influenza pandemic</a> on the U.S. economy. Note that the actual effects of the actual present A(H1N1) influenza outbreak will vary widely from these estimates and that Health and Human Services (HHS)’s figures vary widely from those of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Related TED Talks<br /><br /></span>In 2006, Dr. Larry Brilliant talked about the eradication of small pox and polio, and how influenza pandemics occur. In his talk, he mentioned the Canadian organization <a href="http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/gphin/index-eng.php">GPHIN</a>, and its role in identification of SARS. From that, with his $100,000 TED prize, he created <a href="http://instedd.org/">InSTEDD</a>, a global disease tracking organization based in Palo Alto, California.<br /><br /><object height="326" width="334"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/LarryBrilliant_2006-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/LarryBrilliant-2006.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=320&vh=240&ap=0&ti=58"><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#ffffff" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/LarryBrilliant_2006-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/LarryBrilliant-2006.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=320&vh=240&ap=0&ti=58" height="326" width="334"></embed></object><br /><br />Pulitzer-prize winner Laurie Garrett spoke at TED in 2007 about the 1918 flu pandemic, and what is different between then and now. Her words are quite illuminating towards how we can, and how we may not be able to, respond as communities and governments.<br /><br /><object height="326" width="446"><param name="movie" value="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="wmode" value="transparent"><param name="bgColor" value="#ffffff"> <param name="flashvars" value="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/LaurieGarrett_2007U-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/LaurieGarrett-2007U.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=529"><embed src="http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf" pluginspace="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" bgcolor="#ffffff" allowfullscreen="true" flashvars="vu=http://video.ted.com/talks/embed/LaurieGarrett_2007U-embed_high.flv&su=http://images.ted.com/images/ted/tedindex/embed-posters/LaurieGarrett-2007U.embed_thumbnail.jpg&vw=432&vh=240&ap=0&ti=529" height="326" width="446"></embed></object><br /><br />Both speakers focus on the avian flu, which is a different strain than the A(H1N1) “swine” flu. Yet the overall message and information remains relevant for knowing about how to face a global influenza outbreak.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-34142990635950335772009-04-24T23:44:00.000-07:002009-04-25T00:19:54.424-07:00Latest developments in ThailandThe Prime Minister has withdrawn the decree imposing emergency rule, agreed to an independent inquiry into the clashes and called for constitutional reforms to heal the deep political rift; Red shirts plan a protest in Bangkok tonight; Detained red shirt leaders have been freed on bail; Thaksin is in Liberia.<br /><br />"The lifting of the decree will send a signal to the world that Thailand is back to normal," the Prime Minister said.<br /><br />"We will demand Abhisit's resignation, a dissolution of the House and the scrapping of all arrest warrants against the red shirts," said Somyos Prueksakasemsuk, a leader of the pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).<br /><br />Meanwhile, police are hunting for others blamed for Thailand's worst street violence in 16 years, as well as gunmen who attempted to assassinate the leader of a royalist, pro-government group.<br /><br />In the post below, you will note that forensics analysis has traced the M-16 bullets fired in the 17 April 2009 assassination attempt of Sondhi Limthongkul, to the Thai First Army’s Ninth Infantry division. Could we see the police pitted against the army? Let's not forget, Thaksin is a former policeman.<br /><br />Although Thai officials revoked Thaksin's passport after the latest violence in Bangkok, he has obtained, no less than a diplomatic passport from Nicaragua. Thaksin is in Liberia on a search for investment opportunities in mining, agriculture and gas.<br /><br />Where Thailand goes from here, is anyone's guess. It is hoped that cool heads prevail. Given the deep and bitter divide between the parties and the long-running history of political instability, that seems very unlikely.<br /><br />All eyes will be on the streets of Bangkok tonight, to see if the Red shirts do protest and if they do, what is the reaction by the police and the army. Stay tuned.<br /><br />If ever there was a need for understanding, now is the time and Thailand is the place.Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-21995106796047263882009-04-23T18:31:00.000-07:002009-04-23T19:17:09.543-07:00Thai Army Bullets Used in Sondhi Limthongkul Assassination Attempt<span style="font-weight: bold;">Royal Thai Army Connection to Assassination</span><br /><br />Forensics analysis conducted in the past week have traced the M-16 bullets fired in the 17 April 2009 assassination attempt of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondhi_Limthongkul">Sondhi Limthongkul</a>, founder of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) political party, according to <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090423/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_politics">reports</a> from the Associated Press. The bullets were issued to the Thai First Army’s Ninth Infantry division.<br /><br />How the army’s bullets came to be appropriated and used in the assassination attempt remains unknown. Likewise there have been no arrests. Yet it casts a cloud over the role of the military in Thai politics.<br /><br />Meanwhile, Sondhi is reported to be doing better and is expected to be <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/23/content_11242187.htm">released</a> from the hospital on Friday.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">9th Division History</span><br /><br />The <a href="http://www.geocities.com/pentagon/bunker/7782/9div_eng.html">Royal Thai Army’s 9th Division</a> was originally known as the <a href="http://www.history.army.mil/books/Vietnam/allied/ch02.htm">Royal Thai Army Volunteer Force</a>, a Vietnam War-era unit that grew from a battalion (about 700-800 men) to a division size (11,266 men) between 1966 and 1968. The unit was incorporated into the Thai Royal Army as the 9th Division after its return from Vietnam in 1971. In 1981, it was assigned to the 1st Army’s area of operations, which is centered around Bangkok. It is responsible for internal security.<br /><br />In 1997, the 9th Division was named in allegations of <a href="http://www.burmalibrary.org/reg.burma/archives/199707/msg00246.html">physical abuse of refugees</a> fleeing the instability in Burma (now Myanmar). More recently, in 2002, the 9th Division was specifically mentioned in an Amnesty International <a href="http://www.amnestyusa.org/annualreport.php?id=591ECE1B93C2623380256BAE0056D590&c=THA">report</a> of the forcible deportation of 63 Myanmar refugees. Problems with diplaced persons and a flood of over half-a-million migrant workers have challenged Thailand for the better part of the last decade.<br /><br />The Royal Thai Army has been a decisive factor in the coups and political turnovers of recent years. It was instrumental in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Thai_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat">2006 coup</a> which deposed <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra">Thaksin Shinawatra</a>. At that time, the military supported the PAD’s goal of deposing the Thaksin government.<br /><br />Even considering the assassination attempt of a major political leader, threats of additional armed attacks, and the calls for the present government to step down, the two-week state of emergency Thailand has been under <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8015633.stm">will be lifted</a>, according to current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.<br /><br />For now, Thailand seems to have weathered a major political crisis. Yet the political intrigues are likely far from over.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-88902661713492669262009-04-20T21:31:00.000-07:002009-04-21T04:43:59.352-07:00View of Geneva - Racism<div style="text-align: justify;"><meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5Chp%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5Chp%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5Chp%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> 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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]--> </div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >After the turmoil in Thailand, I was going to look at the unrest in India and Pakistan.<span style=""> </span>However, plans of mice and men oft go astray.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;">The controversial U.N. anti-racism conference in Geneva, Switzerland caught mine and I am sure the attention of many other people.</span><span style="font-family:times new roman;"> </span><span style="font-family:times new roman;">Controversial because Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was invited to deliver a keynote speech, in which he accused the West of making "an entire nation homeless under the pretext of Jewish suffering ... in order to establish a totally racist government in occupied Palestine."</span>
<br /><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><b><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >As reported by CNN<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="text-align: justify;">"It is all the more regrettable that a number of Western governments and the United States have committed themselves to defend those racist perpetrators of genocide," Ahmadinejad said, echoing Tehran's official line on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.</p><div style="text-align: justify;"> </div><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">Many delegates at the controversial U.N. anti-racism conference in Geneva, Switzerland, cheered his words as a minority of diplomats -- mostly from Europe -- collected their papers and briefcases and left the room. Cameras at the scene showed empty seats where delegates from Britain, Spain, France, Finland and Denmark had been sitting.<span style=""> </span>Israel, the US, Australia, Canada, Germany, Poland and Italy boycotted the conference by not sending any representative.</p><p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://gs84.photobucket.com/groups/k6/GQ2IFXVVBQ/?action=view&current=Pic1.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://gi84.photobucket.com/groups/k6/GQ2IFXVVBQ/Pic1.jpg" alt="Pic1" border="0" /></a>
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mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p>U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a statement criticizing Ahmadinejad for using the conference "to accuse, divide and even incite."<span style=""> </span>Ban said he had spoken to the Iranian president and asked him not to focus on "divisiveness" in his address.<span style=""> </span>"It is deeply regrettable that my plea to look to the future of unity was not heeded by the Iranian president," Ban said.</p> <p>Perhaps Peter Gooderham, Britain's envoy to the U.N. in Geneva, said what is on the minds of many people,<span style=""> </span>"The UK unreservedly condemns Iranian President Ahmadinejad's offensive and inflammatory comments. Such outrageous, anti-Semitic remarks should have no place in a U.N. anti-racism forum.</p> <p>While rejecting the boycott, Navi Pillay, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, urged reporters "not allow this one intervention to mar the conference.<span style=""> </span>"I prefer to move on," she said at a news conference after Ahmadinejad's speech. She also criticized the delegates who walked out during his speech, saying his "unsavory remarks" did not "provide justification for anyone to walk out of the conference."<span style=""> </span>She said that she regrets and is "shocked" by the U S decision to boycott the conference.</p> <p><b style="">As reported by Associated Press<o:p></o:p></b></p> <p>The United States understands racism well, it has been and still is an integral part of that nation’s history.<span style=""> </span>Many hope that the election of the nation’s first African-American President would go a long way to bring change and tolerance. </p> <p>The Southern Poverty Law Center, in its annual hate group report, "The Year in Hate" found the number of hate groups grew by 54 percent since 2000.<span style=""> </span>The study identified 926 hate groups -- defined as groups with beliefs or practices that attack or malign an entire class of people -- active in 2008. That's a 4 percent jump, adding 38 more than the year before.</p> <p>Don Black, a 55-year-old former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard claims the number of registered members and readers on his white nationalist Web site surged to unprecedented levels in recent months.<span style=""> </span>On the day after Obama's historic election, more than 2,000 people joined his Web site, a remarkable increase from the approximately 80 new members a day he was getting, Black said.<span style=""> </span>His Web site, which was started in 1995, is one of the oldest and largest hate group sites. The site received so many hits that it crashed after election results were announced. The site boasts 110,000 registered members today, Black said.<span style=""> </span>"People who had been a little more complacent and kind of upset became more motivated to do something," said Black, who also said he joined his first hate group at age 15.
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</w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><style> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0cm; margin-right:0cm; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; 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mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]--> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Hate groups cited by the law center include white nationalists as well as neo-Confederates, neo-Nazis, skinheads, Klansman and black separatists. Skinheads and Klansman saw an increase in membership, while neo-Nazi groups saw a slight decline, according to the law center's report. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Most of the hate groups are located in the South, but the state with the highest number of documented hate groups is California with 84.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Obama serves as a "visual aid" that is helping respark a sense of purpose in current supporters and lure new members, said neo-Nazi David Duke,<b style=""><span style="color:blue;"> </span></b>the former Klan leader who was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives in the 1980s. Duke said he fears "the white European-American" heritage will soon be destroyed. He added that his Web site sees around 40,000 unique visitors a day, up from 15,000 a day before Obama won the election.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Racist anger toward Obama was evident even before he became president. Two weeks before Obama won, authorities said they foiled a skinhead plot to assassinate him. The two suspects, based in Tennessee, also apparently planned to shoot and decapitate dozens of African-Americans, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives said.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >White supremacist groups have gained traction, a reversal from the decline the groups experienced since 2000, according to the law center report.<b> </b>One of the smaller Ku Klux Klan groups,<b> </b>the United Northern and Southern Knights, more than doubled its chapters, widening its geographic reach from eight to 24 states, according to the report. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The image of a black man in the White House angers white racists, who fear nonwhites gaining too much power, said Jack Glaser, associate professor of public policy at the University of California-Berkeley. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >But racist fears can also be more mundane and personal: Nonwhites in the White House could lead to nonwhites in their neighborhoods, which could lead to interracial dating, a great taboo among hate groups. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >"Obama poses a large cultural threat to white racists," Glaser said. "This may explain some of the uptick in hate groups."<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Immigrants are another target of hate groups, according to the report. In a deteriorating economy, illegal immigrants have been blamed by hate groups for allegedly taking subprime loans, according to the report. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Scapegoating occurs most often in times of economic distress, according to experts studying hate crimes. From the Holocaust in Europe to abuses against Irish Catholic immigrants in the 1830s in the United States, people are most likely to lash out against others when they feel vulnerable or need to displace their economic frustrations on others, psychologists say.
<br />
<br />In the city of Detroit, Michigan, where the weak economy has taken a particularly devastating toll, Jeff Schoep serves as the commander for the National Socialist Movement, one of the largest neo-Nazi groups in the United States.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Schoep said he has seen membership grow by 40 percent in recent months, mostly because of the dire economic circumstances. It is the "most dramatic growth" he has seen since he joined the movement in the mid-1990s. The group does not reveal membership numbers to the media, he said.<b style=""><span style="color:blue;"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >"You have an American work force facing massive unemployment," Schoep said. "And you have presidents and politicians flinging open the borders telling them to take the few jobs left while our men are in soup kitchens."<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Experts studying hate crimes say there is no reliable way to link the growing number of hate groups with an increase in hate crimes, since many of the attacks go unreported.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The FBI's uniform crime report found 7,163 hate crime incidents in 2005. However, a special report by the government that same year said the number could be 10 times higher because many of the crimes aren't reported.<b style=""><span style="color:blue;"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The most recent FBI statistics in 2007 saw a slight uptick in hate crimes to 7,624.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Some hate groups such as the National Socialist Movement do not publicly condone violence or terrorist acts."Violence is absolutely counterproductive," said Duke, the former Louisiana legislator and neo-Nazi. <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >But experts say there is a link between joining a hate group and committing violent crimes. Recently in New Orleans, Louisiana, a grand jury indicted four people in the alleged shooting of a woman who tried to leave a Ku Klux Klan initiation, the Southern Poverty Law Center reported.
<br />
<br />More commonly, members of hate groups engage in vandalism such as an incident in Los Angeles, California, this month where vandals slashed tires and sprayed the word "Nazi" on two cars and a house, according to the center. The attack occurred in a neighborhood with signs displaying support for Obama.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Dr. Alvin F. Poussaint, a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School who studied the issue of hate crimes, said people in hate groups can feel paranoid about a specific group of people. This panic leads them to feel threatened, and they may react with violence, he said.<span style=""> </span>"Their thinking is very distorted," Poussaint said.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><b><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >As posted by </span></b><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Arun alias Axee on www.tickledbylife.com</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;">
<br /><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style="font-style: italic;font-family:";font-size:12;" >How times have changed! Black dog is not thrown out of the field!</span><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >South Africa: Circa 1893. Scene: Railway platform Pietermaritzburg railway station.</span><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >A train is halted unceremoniously, by the then white majority.<span style=""> </span>A two legged Indian, “black dog” all suited and booted like an Englishman, was unceremoniously thrown out, onto the platform as he was travelling in the first class.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >
<br />Travelling on business, from Durban to Johannesburg, as an educated, qualified lawyer, who was then, the first so-called “coloured” lawyer admitted to the Supreme Court, he was travelling with a valid ticket.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;">
<br /><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><b style=""><span style="color:blue;"> </span></b><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >There he was lying, on the platform.<span style=""> </span>A human being, with his pride hurt to the hilt.<span style=""> </span>Prejudice towards his skin colour had showed him this day.<span style=""> </span>He resolved here, that he would put an end to this evil.<span style=""> </span>He did so, through sheer grit and determination, in times to come.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >South Africa: April 18, 2009. Scene: Day one of the inaugural Match of IPL: Mumbai Indians versus Chennai Kings.</span><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The match begun, Sachin Tendukar, an Indian cricketer who is recognized and respected by the world as an all time great player, is in full form and flow and in command of the situation.
<br />Runs are flowing from his bat, despite his age.
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<br /><!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Suddenly, the game gets held up; as a four legged “Black Dog” enters the field and holds up the play, for a good 10 minutes!<b style=""><span style="color:blue;"> </span></b>A game that is being aired all over the globe, with millions of viewers glued to their TV sets, comes to a grinding halt!</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >
<br /></span></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><a href="http://gs84.photobucket.com/groups/k6/GQ2IFXVVBQ/?action=view&current=Pic3.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://gi84.photobucket.com/groups/k6/GQ2IFXVVBQ/Pic3.jpg" alt="Pic3" border="0" /></a></span>
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mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} a:link, span.MsoHyperlink {mso-style-priority:99; color:blue; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; color:purple; mso-themecolor:followedhyperlink; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} p {mso-style-priority:99; mso-margin-top-alt:auto; margin-right:0cm; mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto; margin-left:0cm; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;} @page Section1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]--> </p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The world sees a real four legged “Black Dog” holding up the proceedings.<span style=""> </span>Efforts are underway quickly to get rid of the “Black Dog”!<span style=""> </span>Committees designed by organizers for such exigencies, get into the act! The dog is neither lassoed nor is it thrown out!<span style=""> </span>All efforts fail.<span style=""> </span>Patience is not lost.<span style=""> </span>TV Cameras continue to record and report.<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Finally, the “four legged black dog” is respectfully removed from the scene by a white Lady, using the lure of a cookie.<span style=""> </span>Not a hair of that genuine “Black Dog” was ruffled in the bargain. It was lovingly and caringly, removed, by a white human being, in a dignified manner. The commentator too ironically remarked, ‘removed through the VIP stands’ exit!’<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Wow! What a change!<span style=""> </span>All of us as humans, witnessed and enjoyed that change as it happened.<span style=""> </span>In these past 100 plus years change has indeed, happened.<span style=""> </span>Happened for the good: to the whole world.<span style=""> </span>Apartheid has melted away completely.
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<br /><!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >The respect that the dog commanded, made my mind rush back to the events, in 1893 on the platform of <span style="">Pietermaritzburg railway station</span>.<span style=""> </span>A comparative of life then, and life now!</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;">
<br /><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" >Come to think of it, the commentator himself used the word “lassie” and never uttered the words “dog” or a “black dog.”<span style=""> </span>The dog in question, indeed, had its day! <span style=""> </span>A field day, on a billion dollar field.<span style=""> </span>It never bought a ticket for this field day, and it was not thrown out!<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style="line-height: 115%;font-family:";font-size:12;" >We need understanding</span></b><b style=""><span style="line-height: 115%;font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span></b></p> <p>UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the world to rally against the threat that intolerance could rise as a result of the economic crisis, saying “the time is now” to stamp out racism.<span style=""> </span>On opening the conference in Geneva, Ban said that racism including anti-Semitism and Islamophobia need to be tackled.<span style=""> </span>He went on to say, “There comes a time to reaffirm our faith in fundamental human rights and the dignity and worth of us all.”</p> <p>The above shows that there is a crying need for Global Understanding.<span style=""> </span>As Ban said, now is the time.<span style=""> </span>Let us try to live together in harmony, is the motto of the <a href="http://www.globalunderstandinginstitute.org/aboutus.html">Global Understanding Institute </a>(GUI). The Global Understanding movement was formed in 2006 and launched on Valentine's Day of that year (14 February 2006).
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<br />It was formed by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.
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<br />We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.
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<br />We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.
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<br />GUI is now on Twitter (<a href="http://twitter.com/GUInstitute">http://twitter.com/GUInstitute</a>) where you can catch up on the real-time updates. If you would like to play a role in promoting global understanding, please contact Peter Corless at 650-906-3134 (mobile); or by email at petercorless@mac.com. You can also find Peter on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/people/Peter-Corless/594328827">Facebook</a> and on <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/1/616/97a">LinkedIn</a>:</p><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p></o:p></span><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; line-height: normal;"><span style=";font-family:";font-size:12;" ><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p></p> <p></p> Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-83119214472953675042009-04-18T20:08:00.000-07:002009-04-20T20:43:51.933-07:00View from South East Asia - Repercussions of the recent unrest in ThailandAsia Times Online <a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia.html">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia.html</a> continues to produce quality reporting on Thailand. The editor, Shawn Crispin is based there and really has his finger on the pulse. His latest article is ‘Shooting the messenger in Thailand’ (<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae02.html">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae02.html</a>).<br /><br />It a good read about the recent shooting of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group leader Sondhi Limthongkul. He ends the article with the sombre warning, “The fear now is that Friday's assassination attempt could indicate that the UDD and Thaksin's supporters aim to bypass the courts and mete out justice as they see fit on Thailand's increasingly mean streets.” <br /><br />Another good article from Asia Times is ‘ASEAN's Pattaya problem' (<a href="http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae01.html">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae01.html</a>) by Donald K Emmerson. He reminds us that in the last seven months, Thailand has had four different prime ministers, including one interim premier. <br /><br />He comments that “ASEAN has long insisted on occupying the driver's seat in vehicles for cooperation between Southeast Asia and countries outside the region. One of these formats is ASEAN Plus Three (APT), the Three being China, Japan, and South Korea. Another is the East Asia Summit, which adds Australia, India, and New Zealand to the APT. <br /><br />When Thai strife stymied summitry in Pattaya, both of these vehicles were derailed. ASEAN may or may not be outmoded as a vehicle for beneficial comity among Southeast Asians alone. But a second effect of the Thai debacle is to throw into serious doubt the right of ASEAN to drive the larger regional car.“<br /><br />He continues, “But it is unlikely that many of ASEAN's disappointed leaders, as they were evacuated from Pattaya or turned back en route, blamed the waste of their time on Thailand's failure to handle the demonstrators more democratically. More likely was the opposite conclusion: that the Thai government should have cracked down harder on the protests to stop them from getting out of hand.“<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">What does the future hold?</span><br /><br />Donald K Emmerson ends his article with this comment, “Who will lead ASEAN? On present evidence, for the next four to five years, it will be one authoritarian government after another. What is the future of democracy in Southeast Asia? As of now, and for the same near term, not as bright as might be hoped. “<br /><br />In rotation, Vietnam will be the next Chair of ASEAN in 2010. The protests that forced the cancellation of the Asean summit in Thailand last weekend will likely lead Vietnam to move slower on political liberalisation, experts said Monday. <br /><br />"Thailand used to be one of the democratic models for Vietnam, but these incidents in Thailand certainly will make Vietnamese leaders more cautious about democracy," said Professor Trinh Duy Luan, director of Vietnam's Institute for Social Studies. <br /><br />Officially, Vietnam's government expressed "regret" over the postponement of the Asean summit. " In our view, this is a regrettable event, affecting not only Thailand's image but Asean's process of cooperation," said Nguyen Hong Cuong, director of the Asean Department at Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Cuong noted that several agreements on Asean cooperation scheduled to be adopted at the summit had been postponed. <br /><br />The state-run newspaper Vietnam News reported Monday that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung hoped that "political stability" would soon return to Thailand, for the sake of its national development its responsibilities as rotating chair of Asean. <br /><br />But some analysts said the repercussions of Thailand's demonstrations were likely to slow moves in Communist Vietnam to allow greater freedom of organisation and more room for civil society groups. <br /><br />For several years, the country's National Assembly has debated reforms to the national Law on Associations, which regulates the formation of any kind of civic group. Under current law, all such groups must be affiliated with a government agency or government-chartered "mass organisation," such as the Women's Union or the Union of Science and Technology Associations. <br /><br />Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Vietnamese leaders opposed to liberalisation would use the Thai unrest to support strong single-party rule. <br /><br />"Like any instability in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, Vietnamese television will show that violence extensively," Thayer said. "The subtext is 'This is what you get when you have a multiparty democracy.'" <br /><br />Vietnamese television news has been running footage of the protests in Thailand since they began over the weekend. <br /><br />Nguyen Tran Bat, chair of the Vietnamese consulting firm InvestConsult, agreed that moves to broaden civil society in Vietnam would be limited. <br /><br />"Vietnam will allow people to have more rights, but in order to facilitate leadership, it will not consider them as natural rights," Bat said. "The concept of what democracy is will certainly be considered more cautiously by Vietnamese leaders." <br /><br />Being a member of the United Nation Security Council, Vietnam has already chaired the Council for one month and will do so again later this year. It is hope that this experience will bode well when Vietnam chairs ASEAN next year.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />We need understanding</span><br /><br />Asia is a region in turmoil, from the troubles in Thailand to massacres in Mumbai and threats in Korea. If ever there was a crying need for Global Understanding, now is the time and Asia is the place. In future blogs, we will explore the situation in the other hotspots around Asia.<br /><br />For now, let us try to live together in harmony, which is the motto of the <a href="http://www.globalunderstandinginstitute.org/aboutus.html">Global Understanding Institute </a>(GUI). The Global Understanding movement was formed in 2006 and launched on Valentine's Day of that year (14 February 2006). <br /><br />It was formed by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.<br /><br />We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.<br /><br />We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.<br /><br />GUI is now on Twitter (<a href="http://twitter.com/GUInstitute">http://twitter.com/GUInstitute</a>) where you can catch up on the real-time updates. If you would like to play a role in promoting global understanding, please contact Peter Corless at 650-906-3134 (mobile); or by email at petercorless@mac.com. You can also find Peter on <a href="http://www.facebook.com/people/Peter-Corless/594328827">Facebook</a> and on <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/1/616/97a">LinkedIn</a>:Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-68381682063042717492009-04-17T18:01:00.000-07:002009-04-20T21:16:24.236-07:00Who are the Blue Shirts and what about the Black Shirts<meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><meta name="ProgId" content="Word.Document"><meta name="Generator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><meta name="Originator" content="Microsoft Word 12"><link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5Chp%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><link rel="themeData" href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5Chp%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx"><link rel="colorSchemeMapping" 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Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0cm; margin-right:0cm; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} a:link, span.MsoHyperlink {mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; color:blue; mso-themecolor:hyperlink; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed {mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; color:purple; mso-themecolor:followedhyperlink; text-decoration:underline; text-underline:single;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; 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line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <p style="font-family: times new roman;" class="MsoNormal">In my previous blog, I referred to the rainbow on Thailand's streets. There are Yellow Shirts, Red Shirts, Blue Shirts and Black Shirts. We know who the Yellow and Red Shirts are, but what about the Blue and Black Shirts?
<br />
<br />I came across Kevin Butters Twitter account that mentions them. Kevin originates from the UK and settled in Chiang Mai, Thailand around three years ago, having spent time living and working in China.<o:p></o:p></p> <p style="font-family: times new roman;" class="MsoNormal"><u4:p></u4:p> <meta equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"> <!----><xml> <u3:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" defunhidewhenused="true" defsemihidden="true" defqformat="false" defpriority="99" latentstylecount="267"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="0" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Normal"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="heading 1"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 2"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 3"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 4"> <u3:lsdexception locked="false" priority="9" qformat="true" name="heading 5"> 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mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="line-height: 115%;font-size:11;" >The Blue Shirts emerged when the Red Shirts began to mount a serious challenge to the government. First, they said they only wanted to protect public utilities, like the airport. But the Red Shirts soon accused them as being thugs hired by the government. Nirmal Ghosh writes about the confrontation between the Blue Shirts and Red Shirts which may shed light about the real leaders of the Blue Shirts.
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name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="70" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Dark List Accent 6"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="71" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="72" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful List Accent 6"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="73" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="19" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Emphasis"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="21" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Emphasis"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="31" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Subtle Reference"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="32" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Intense Reference"><u6:lsdexception locked="false" priority="33" semihidden="false" unhidewhenused="false" qformat="true" name="Book Title"> In the early morning they (Red Shirts) began marching up the hill to the Royal Cliff Resort, venue of the summit, but came face to face with a few hundred of the pro-government militia, well organized with freshly printed dark blue T-shirts saying ‘Protect the Institution' – institution being the a reference to the monarchy.
<br />
<br />All the blue shirts were armed with sticks, clubs and iron rods.The face-offs occurred at two locations, each with around 1,000 red shirts against about 150 blue shirts. The men in blue held pictures of the king and queen.
<br />
<br />The blue shirted men – clearly a militia – essentially took shelter behind the army, whose officers made no attempt to disarm them.According to two sources, the blue shirts had been organized by the mayor of Pattaya, who is the son of ‘Kamnan Poh' – a controversial strongman of the province.
<br />
<br />What are the reactions of Thai residents who are not directly involved in the political crisis? When the Red Shirts were leaving the ASEAN Summit venue in Pattaya, a group of people wearing black shirts<b> </b>began throwing stones at them. Who are they?
<br />
<br />Indeed, the situation is becoming more and more unpredictable. The red shirts are able to move their forces from place to place. While the yellow shirts - the ones who closed the airport last Nov and Dec - have not yet re-appeared, the emergence of the blue shirts cannot bode well. It is even more troubling that on their very first appearance, the blue shirts provoked violence. 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New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} .MsoPapDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; margin-bottom:10.0pt; line-height:115%;} @page Section1 {size:612.0pt 792.0pt; margin:72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt 72.0pt; mso-header-margin:36.0pt; mso-footer-margin:36.0pt; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style>Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-9898411734810969962009-04-17T00:34:00.000-07:002009-04-17T00:35:58.001-07:00Global Understanding Institute - Now On Twitter!You can now follow updates of the Global Understanding Institute on Twitter.<br /><br /><a href="http://twitter.com/GUInstitute">http://twitter.com/GUInstitute</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-8886131799268333882009-04-16T23:40:00.000-07:002009-04-17T00:05:21.815-07:00A view from Southeast Asia - Focus on ThailandThanks Peter for the timely update. As we can see, Thailand's troubles are far from over.<br /><br />If the reports are true that Thaksin operatives, have during the past two years clandestinely funnelled small arms through Cambodia to his supporters, this does not bode well for the Land of Smiles.<br /><br />If Twitter reports are true that Sondhi Limthongku, the founder of the PAD, was shot by a machine gun that sprayed over 100 bullets, this is a very dangerous turn of events. If the machine gun was in the hands of a Thaksin supporter, this is a serious escalation.<br /><br />One person, whose view of Thailand I respect greatly, is my editor at Asia Times Online. Shawn Crispin has written a great article titles "Smoke, Mirrors and Lies' which can be viewed at <a href="http://http//www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD17Ae02.html">http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD17Ae02.html</a>.<br /><br />I have made contact with a couple of people in Thailand but they are a little pre-occupied at present and hope to interact next week. Stay tuned.<br /><br />If ever there was a time for a little understanding, in Thailand, now is the time. Let cool and sensible heads prevail.Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-80716990330710866802009-04-16T21:15:00.000-07:002009-04-17T00:51:13.809-07:00Breaking News: Thailand: Sondhi Limthongku, Leader of Thai "Yellow Shirts" Shot, WoundedAccording to <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aLXmIDRD3l9A&refer=asia">Bloomberg</a>, <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090417/wl_nm/us_thailand_politics_51">Reuters</a>, <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090417/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_politics">Associated Press</a>, and other news reports, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondhi_Limthongkul">Sondhi Limthongku</a>, the founder of the Thai political party <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Alliance_for_Democracy">People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)</a>, was shot in an apparent assassination attempt early on the morning of Friday, 17 April 2009, at around 5:45 am local time. <span class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1239940244_4">Two or more gunmen shot out the tires of Sondhi’s car while it was stopped at a gas station, then shot and wounded Sondhi, his bodyguard and driver. </span><br /><br /><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/hnELrcI_Z40&hl=en&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/hnELrcI_Z40&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object><br />(Video of Sondi’s bullet-ridden car.)<br /><br />Sondi’s political party, commonly referred to as the “Yellow Shirts,” was the group responsible for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand_political_crisis_2005-2006">2005-2006 political crisis</a> which resulted in the exile of the <span class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1239940244_4">former Prime Minister <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaksin_Shinawatra">Thaksin Shinawatra</a>. As the political crisis continued through <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Thai_political_crisis">2008 to the present</a>, PAD was also responsible for seizing the Bangkok <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Suvarnabhumi_Airport#Seizure_of_Suvarnabhumi_International_Airport">Suvarnabhumi International Airport</a> last year in a massive civil protest in November 2008, which resulted in the ouster of a government supportive of the <span class="yshortcuts" id="lw_1239940244_4">exiled former Prime Minister.<br /><br />Thaksin’s supporters, who are known as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_United_Front_of_Democracy_Against_Dictatorship">National United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)</a>, are commonly referred to as the “Red Shirts.” They are the group responsible for the recent unrest in the streets which has resulted in several deaths and dozens of injuries. Their desire is to disband the Parliament and to call for a new election.<br /></span><br /><object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Xx7vJfoDwmM&hl=en&fs=1"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Xx7vJfoDwmM&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="344" width="425"></embed></object><br />(<span style="font-style: italic;">Al Jazeera English</span> Interview with <span>Sean Boonpracong, spokesman for UDD</span>, 12 April 2009)<br /><br />The attack may increase tensions between the two political parties, and may spur additional levels of violence. </span>Prime Minister <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abhisit_Vejjajiva" onmouseover="return escape( popwSearchNews( this ))">Abhisit Vejjajiva</a>, who is supported by Sondhi and the PAD, has imposed emergency rule in Bangkok this week as violence and protest continue to destablize life and commerce.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-31068634617885387112009-04-16T02:07:00.000-07:002009-04-16T06:17:10.748-07:00A view from Southeast Asia – Focus on ThailandThe most recent event of note, here in Southeast Asia, is the recent turmoil in Thailand. This has been brewing for such a long time, since former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed in 2006. This is the same year that the Global Understanding Movement (GUM) was formed. We have no connection to Thaksin being deposed! Since then, a rainbow has graced the streets of Bangkok and other cities.<br /><br />There have been the red-shirt supporters of Thaksin and the yellow-shirt supporters of those opposed to Thaksin and his allies. Then there have been the blue-shirt people wearing masks in Pattaya, who were there to supposedly protect the ASEAN meeting and show their opposition to the red shirts.<br /><br />In the build up to the September 2006 military coup, which saw Thaksin removed from office, there had been pressure put on Thaksin and his policies by a group called the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD).<br /><br />The PAD were not a political party, but a political pressure group formed by individuals concerned by the power wielded by Thaksin and the direction he was taking Thailand. PAD had some influential backers including those with links to the media, army and Royal Palace.<br /><br />Supporters of PAD adopted the yellow shirt and made international headlines at the end of 2008, when television viewers around the world were shown images of the occupation of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport. The main distinguishing feature was the yellow shirts worn by the protesters, adopted by the protesters to show their allegiance to the king.<br /><br />The Red Shirts managed to force the abandonment of the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Pattaya, where several world leaders were scheduled to attend, by breaking into the venue. Some leaders were whisked away by helicopter, including Vietnam’s Prime Minister.<br /><br />Thaksin, a multibillionaire media tycoon was elected in 2001 on a populist platform that promised universal healthcare and cash handouts to poor villagers. He was ousted from power in a bloodless army coup in 2006 and has been in exile abroad since being sentenced last October to two years in prison after being convicted of a corruption charge by Thailand's Supreme Court.<br /><br />It’s reported that he’s been in negotiations to recover US$2.2 billion of family-owned assets that are now frozen in Thai banks. Those negotiations reportedly stalled because of the military's unwillingness to negotiate and the government's efforts to have Thaksin extradited to serve a two-year prison sentence for criminal conflict of interest charges.<br /><br />Last Wednesday, Thailand's government announced it has revoked Thaksin’s passport with effect from April 12th because he stands accused of helping to stoke the recent anti-government hostility. Thaksin frequently addressed his followers by video or letter and called for his followers to engage in a revolution.<br /><br />"Now that they have tanks on the street and the soldiers are coming out, so it is time for the people to come out for a revolution," Thaksin said. He later pushed for an end to violence. "We absolutely reject any form of violence, and reject the efforts of such enemies to tarnish what we stand for, to portray us as a mob, and to legitimize a crackdown on our people," he said in an open letter to the Thai people.<br /><br />"I reiterate my call here to all my fellow Thais that our struggle for democracy must be non-violent. We must build the future we seek through the force of our ideas and our principles, and resist all the suppressive and aggressive attempts by the state and state-sponsored thugs to provoke us and incite us to violence," he said.<br /><br />On April Fool’s Day, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said the government wanted to avoid violence, he offered to negotiate directly with the exiled Thaksin. "If talks can bring peace to the country, I am ready to meet him anywhere, because Thaksin is the only person that can end the siege."<br /><br />Thasin responded, "Negotiation is out of the question. We are talking about the nation's future now."<br /><br />After the Red Shirts withdrew from their blockade of the Prime Minister’s office, PM Abhisit Vejjajiva said, “The government does not view its success on this occasion as a victory over the protesters and should this be considered a victory, it is one for all Thai people."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Where now?</span><br /><br />The recent events, following on from previous disruptions that were shown on TV screens around the world, have badly affected Thailand’s tourism industry, which accounts for about 12% of the country’s GDP.<br /><br />Thaksin’s trusted aide and former minister in Thaksin’s government, Jakrapob Penkair, now leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) distinguished himself throughout the chaos and some say he could emerge as the opposition's next prime ministerial candidate. This is of course presuming that Thailand will continue to have elections.<br /><br />Some observers say that this is only one battle in the war. Thai society is on-edge because nobody knows what will happen when the highly revered 81-year-old monarch, King Bhumibol eventually passes away. He is of ill health and many wonder how long he will live. When he does, many predict that pent-up frustrations will boil over.<br /><br />A key-player is Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, whom Thaksin recently alleged together with his close associate General Surayud Chulanont, were among the masterminds behind the 2006 coup. This is a public accusation that the royal advisory body was acting outside of its legal mandate.<br /><br />Some say that Thaksin's calls for a national uprising were no idle threat and that the protest group, could in the weeks ahead stir more trouble at the provincial level.<br /><br />There are reports that Thaksin operatives had for the past two years clandestinely funnelled small arms through Cambodia to his supporters in various north-eastern provinces, where Thaksin's grassroots support runs deep. The arms had been moved and distributed with the help of former Communist Party of Thailand (CPT), an ideologically driven insurgent group active in the 1960s and 1970s that frequently criticized the royal family during its years of armed resistance. The group was disbanded in the 1980s, but some of its former student leaders were among Thaksin's top aides while he was in government.<br /><br />It is without doubt that Thailand has not seen the last of public discontent; there are other battles to be fought before the war is won. When and where, nobody knows.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">How about a little understanding?</span><br /><br />The motto of the Global Understanding Institute is: Let us live together in harmony<br /><br />The Global Understanding Institute seeks to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.<br /><br />We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbours. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.<br /><br />At this stage, I don’t know how the Global Understanding Institute can play a role in Thailand, but that is not going to stop us from trying to find out. I am actively reaching out to Thai friends, who represent all colours of the rainbow, to see what can be done.<br /><br />We may not be successful, but at least we must try. If any readers of this post can assist in this worthy goal, please contact me. Together, let’s try to make a difference.Karlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-49492046587741580802009-04-15T22:27:00.000-07:002009-04-20T21:23:42.223-07:00A view from Southeast Asia<span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 102);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">As you will read from http://www.globalunderstandinginstitute.org/aboutus.html, </span></span>the Global Understanding Movement (GUM) was launched on Valentine's Day in 2006 by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest <span style="font-family: georgia;">intentions</span>; <span style="font-family: georgia;">legal </span>and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.<br /><br />We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.<br /><br />We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.<span style="color: rgb(255, 204, 102);"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"></span><br /><br /><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">I have the honour of being the </span></span>Founder of the Global Understanding Movement and together with some friends here in Hanoi, I began the movement by creating a forum for discussion in the wake of the outrage of the September 2005<i> <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy" target="_blank" mce_real_href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy">Jyllands-Posten</a></i><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy" target="_blank" mce_real_href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jyllands-Posten_Muhammad_cartoons_controversy"> Muhammad cartoons controvery</a>.<br /><br />That was then and since that historic moment, the call has been taken up by Peter, who founded the Global Understanding Institute (GUI). Peter is working hard to register GUI as a Not for Profit organisation.<br /><br />I am still in Hanoi, thankful for Peter's lead and hoping that more people will heed the call and join the movement. If you are interested in making the world that we live in, a better place for ourselves and our children, I urge you to be in contact with either Peter or myself.<br /><br />I am going to contribute to this blog, from time to time, with a view from Southeast Asia. I was born in Hong Kong and have lived in Asia for more than 40 years. Therefore, I have a detailed perspective and can be considered an informed 'foreigner'.<br /><br />Actually, I was once described as a 'reverse banana' (white on the outside and yellow on the inside). At the time, I thought it was somewhere between being cute and being an insult. Over the years, I have come to realise that it is quite true!<br /><br />If you have a comment, agree or disagree with anything that I write, please feel free to contact me. I have written quite a lot about Vietnam (http://www.tckgroup.org/news.html). If you want to know more about me, feel free to visit http://www.tckgroup.org/team.html.<br /><br />Until my next blog!<br />KarlKarlhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05543943916001305990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-54045209171478209512009-03-27T23:53:00.000-07:002009-03-28T01:37:35.734-07:00Financial Crisis, 27 Mar 2009: Weekly WrapupThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) roared back over the past week. Monday saw the Dow rise to 7,775. The rest of the week challenged that level of support, which seems to be holding strong. Wednesday saw the Dow drop to around the 7,550 level in intraday trading, but by the close that day the Dow was back to 7,749.<br /><br />Thursday saw the highest level of support, closing at 7924.56. Friday’s close reflected some profit-taking for a generally good week for Wall Street. For the week, the Dow was up nearly 500 points.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />DJIA<br />Weekly Closes<br />March 2009</span><br />06 March : 6,626.94<br />13 March : 7,223.98<br />20 March : 7,278.38<br />27 March : 7,776.18<br /><br />The economic news was not uniformly good. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52Q3ZM20090327">warned</a> that the global recession could lead to instability and social unrest around the world. Dominique Strauss-Kahn of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made the prospect for the world even more dire, citing millions dropping into poverty and the spectre of war breaking out.<br /><br />The contraction of the world’s markets will take months to shake out across the globe. Yet for this week the U.S. economy rebounded dramatically, producing one of the best single-month rises in many years.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-86509200907874678432009-03-20T13:39:00.000-07:002009-03-20T16:06:14.967-07:00Financial Crisis, 20 Mar 2009: Weekly WrapupThe market’s corrosive slide has had a surprising bounce over the past weeks. In fact, had you picked the bottom of a few weeks ago, and you would have been part of the <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFN2051733720090320?rpc=44">best 2-week run of the S&P500 since 1974</a>.<br /><br />A cursory look at the last week’s close to this week’s close alone would not show that. The week-to-week change in the Dow was a modestly buoyed 54-point rise: from 7,223.98 on the close of 13 March to today’s close of 20 March at 7,278.38. That modest rise does not tell the complete story of the volatile market for the week.<br /><br />Just as one comparing the present day’s close to the close of 7,270.89 on 25 February would have left out the volatile weeks in between.<br /><br />Wall Street began with a rocky Monday, which saw an up-and-down day nearly as high as 7,400 and then falling back to near 7200. The Dow then had strong positive days Tuesday and Wednesday, including cresting over the 7,550 mark on Wednesday, 18 March, before it eroded, giving back nearly all the gains over Thursday and Friday. Friday alone the Dow sank back 122.42 points or –1.65%. The NASDAQ and the S&P500 were likewise off –1.8% and –2% respectively.<br /><br />The rise of the Dow from less than 6,500 on 9 March to the over 7,550 intraday high on Wednesday represented a 16.15% rise in value. In the short term, that is a very bright reversal of the downward plummet of stocks. However, the Dow is still down 17% on the year.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">AIG Bonus Pay — Cherry on Top?</span><br /><br />The week’s financial news was filled with the comments about the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/business/15AIG.html">AIG bonus pay of $165 million</a> to its financial products unit managers and the government’s demand that it be returned, either <a href="http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090319.wibaig19/BNStory/Business/home">voluntarily</a> or through a special tax that sailed through Congress. <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=102150228">Tim Geithner</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/nyregion/20dodd.html">Senator Christopher Dodd</a> were both hammered and taken to task for letting provisions for such bonuses slip into the Congressional bailout package in the first place.<br /><br />The bonuses were simply the “cherry on top” of a terrible heart-stopping dessert for the American tax payer. All of it is relative mountains-and-molehills compared to the amount of money already plowed into AIG. $182.5 billion of public money was invested into the company. The company is going to be forced to repay the costs of the bonuses to the taxpayers, and, on top of that, the individual compensation will now <a href="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29771499/">face a specially-passed 90% tax</a>. As will any bonus compensation made to individuals with incomes greater than $250,000 working at companies that received $5 billion or more in federal bailout funds.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...</span><br /><br />The U.S. Federal deficit for 2009 is likely going to be <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE52J3SR20090320?loc=interstitialskip">$1.8 trillion</a>, and another $1.4 trillion for 2010. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that it projects Federal deficits to accrue another $9.3 trillion in debts between 2009 and 2017. The national debt already stands over <a href="http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np">$11.0 trillion</a> (specifically $11,039,686,130,898.10 as of 19 March 2009).<br /><br />The Federal Reserve waded into the situation by offering to buy back $300 billion of Treasury bills, and to acquire $750 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities, and another $100 billion of their outstanding debts.<br /><br />The gross <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt">U.S. debt</a> had been as low as 58% of Gross Domestic Product in 2000. By the time of the end of the Bush administration, that had risen to about 75%. This year’s deficit alone will amount to <a href="http://features.csmonitor.com/economyrebuild/2009/03/20/cbo-us-deficit-ballooning-to-record-19-trillion/">11.9% of GDP</a>. The next year deficit will be an estimated 7.9%.<br /><br />As the national debts pile on, so do the unemployment figures.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Job Losses Mount</span><br /><br />The national average for unemployment in Febrary was measured <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm">8.1%</a> by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, that rate may rise given new information out of leading industrial states like California and Ohio.<br /><br />In California, the unemployment rate rose in February to <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-caljobs21-2009mar21,0,6408644.story">10.5%</a>, the highest since April 1983. The 116,000 Californian jobs shed in February were the most lost in a single month in 19 years. Even the normally ebullient Silicon Valley has been hard hit. Last year, the unemployment rate was 5.1%. Today it is over <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/stories/2009/03/16/daily88.html">10%</a>.<br /><br />Likewise, Ohio faces a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/03/20/ap6193614.html">9.4%</a> unemployment rate, up from 8.4% in January — the worst situation since 1984. A year before it had stood at 5.9%. There were well over a half-million unemployed in Ohio in February 2009 — 566,000 — versus 349,000 unemployed a year ago in February 2008.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Global Setback</span><br /><br />The U.S. economic recession is not a localized market issue. The International Monetary Fund acknowledged today that the entire global economy is now in a recession. The overall world’s production will <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2009/BUSINESS/03/20/imf.global.economy/?iref=hpmostpop">slump 1% over 2009</a>. Some economies will grow, but not as fast as they used to. Most will be in recession, and some be hit far harder than others. Japan, for instance is expecting a retraction of 5.8% in its GDP. Europe will be down 3.2% on average. The U.S. will have a relatively mild 2.6% retraction.<br /><br />The question will be how fast the global economy can spring back after sustaining such precipitous losses. It also doesn’t mean that the problems will go away. Even if the market sprang back 16% over the past few weeks trading, there are still tremendous problems to be burdened, including the incurred national debts of various stimulus packages which were used to get the market moving again.<br /><br />Sustainability is not done by simple means and gross averages. One cannot water a plant “on average” by drowning it one day after weeks of drought. Likewise, the instability of the present up-and-down market is not a sign of good health. It came at a price, which will be burdened for years and decades to come.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-10343534634944578942009-03-13T13:15:00.000-07:002009-03-13T13:54:33.921-07:00Financial Crisis, 13 Mar 2009: Dow 7,223.98, +53.92 (+0.75%)Today the market rose to close the week up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over 7,200. It was up 53.92 points on the day (+0.75%), ending at 7,223.98. For the week the Dow bounced back nearly 600 points over the prior week’s close of 6,626.94, recovering all the losses of the prior week and well over its close at 7,062.93 of two weeks ago. That is a rise of over 9% for the week, and a net rise for March of 2.28%.<br /><br />Though this is welcome news, having a “two-week high” is nothing to really get complacent about. World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of all economic stimuli giving the world economy a “<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSLD23191820090313">sugar high</a>” speaking in London before the start of the G20 Summit.<br /><br />Another bit of good news for the “buy American” crowd was that the U.S. <a href="http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/03/13/afx6164403.html">trade deficit fell 9.7% to $36 billion</a> for the month of January. This was down $2 billion compared with expectations. Adjusted for inflation, the real trade deficit was $41 billion. However, this news must be couched in the fact that all global trade is significantly down for the year. And in the long run, it could hurt many industries and international relationships that rely upon global trade for their success.<br /><br />Many elements of the world economy are still shaking out after the downturn. European powers are considering protectionism. They are still in a great deal of insecurity over their eastern European debt obligations. <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/mar2009/gb20090312_168362.htm">Austria</a>, which had extensive dealings with eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, now finds itself in a greatly insecure position.<br /><br />China is trying to avoid having its trade deficit with the U.S. shrink, and is mulling over the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/13/AR2009031300703.html?hpid=topnews">security of U.S. Treasury bonds</a>. Meanwhile, the U.S. has <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/mar/13/us-china-naval-standoff">dispatched a Navy destroyer</a>, the USS <span style="font-style: italic;">Chung-Hoon</span>, to protect a maritime surveillance ship, the <span style="font-style: italic;">Impeccable</span>, off the Chinese coast. Along with the other issues, a prognosis of uncertainty is developing between the U.S., the present pre-eminent world power, and China, the developing powerhouse of Asia.<br /><br />So while the news for the week is extremely good for the short term, there remains a great deal of uncertainty for the coming year ahead.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-25187260163748563982009-03-12T13:59:00.000-07:002009-03-12T16:31:21.873-07:00Financial Crisis, 12 Mar 2009: Dow 7,170.06, +239.66 (+3.46%)For the third straight day, the Dow Jones has ended higher. For the first time this month, the Dow closed above the 7,000 mark at 7,160.06.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">A Dimmed Light Shines Brighter</span><br /><br /><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/General-Electric-loses-top-apf-14621962.html">General Electric</a>, even though it was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s from AAA to AA+, jumped up $1.08 a share, up 12.72%, to $9.57. Investors had worried the downgrade would have been even worse.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">If Not a Bottom, a Ledge</span><br /><br />Meanwhile other aspects of the economy looked to be settling according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-retail-sales-dip-less-than-rb-14621702.html">Retail spending in February</a>, though still down slightly by 0.1%, was not as bad off as some forecast. Excluding automotive industry, it was actually up 0.7%. Overall retail spending in January, even including the automotive market, was actually up 1.8%. Unemployment remains a chief worry to the sustainability of the consumer spending rate.<br /><br />The present week has been a welcome relief to a market that has seemed nearly in free-fall since October of last year. While prospects are still too murky to determine if this is a bottom to the crevasse, it is possibly at least a ledge that the market has landed safely upon.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Madoff Guilty</span><br /><br />Today also marks the day that Bernie Madoff <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090312_431966.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_top+story">pled guilty</a> to running a massive corrupt investment scheme that lost billions. “I operated a Ponzi scheme,” he told the U.S. District Court judge.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Go to G20</span><br /><br />The leaders of the <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/mar2009/db20090311_773043.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index+-+temp_policy+%2Bamp%3B+government">G20 are preparing to meet this week</a>. The U.S. is proposing two major initiatives:<br /><ul><li>Push for a 2-year stimulus plan from all G20 nations equal to 2% of that nation’s GDP. The U.S. stimulus plan signed by President Obama is already equivalent to 3% of GDP.<br /></li></ul><ul><li>Expand the IMF’s emergency fund for developing nations from $50 billion to $500 billion. The U.S. would contribute $100 billion to that fund and would seek other nations to underwrite the other $400 billion in necessary funds.</li></ul>Many of the nations, however, are so strapped for cash and credit that they are not willing to make such a commitment.<br /><br />Stay tuned for the news from the G20 summit later this month.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-41517901514218867582009-03-11T13:02:00.000-07:002009-03-12T16:30:18.123-07:00Financial Crisis, 11 Mar 2009: Dow 6,929.68, +3.19 (+0.05%)Today the market flirted with the 7,000 mark, crested it, and then spent the day in up-and-down trading. A late-in-the-afternoon rally almost brought the Dow to a close at the 7,000 mark, before a final tumble to close just 3 points higher than the previous day.<br /><br />The intraday low was <span><span id="yfs_g00_^dji">6,867.55, meaning that the present support for this level is not firmly established. With the Dow plunging and rising hundreds of points per day, we will likely see a great deal of volatility yet to come.<br /><br />The general trend for the day was a rapid peak in the AM, followed by a long steady decline. The reversal of that trend to the end-of-the-day rally somewhat mirrors the experience of 6 March 2009, when the market hit new recent lows.<br /><br />The good news is that at 6,929.68, the Dow has recovered 7.6% from the low of </span></span><span>6,440.08</span><span><span id="yfs_g00_^dji">. The unknown propositions are whether it will be able to remain above that point, and whether we have reached a valley, or a bump on the downward slope.<br /><br />The airline industry, for one, sees that there may be some fair weather flying ahead. Delta, for one, saw “<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/carriers-mostly-higher-jetblue-gets/story.aspx?guid=%7BB1CCC02F-6851-4695-940E-5D18ADCD9BF1%7D&siteid=yhoof">revenue trends stabilizing and not getting worse</a>.” BofA-Merrill Lynch even upgraded JetBlue.<br /><br />The issue about whether we’ve reached bottom requires everyone to consider “<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/189.asp">capitulation</a>.” When some people simply abandon their positions in the market and take their losses. <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/tuesday-more-bear-market-rally-new/story.aspx?guid=%7BF072CB1B-D990-4D3A-8F45-D92AB9FCCFFA%7D&dist=TNMostRead">Mark Hulbert</a> of MarketWatch is not convinced we’ve reached a point of capitulation yet, and warns that to be too overly bullish at present may be mistaking a bear market rally for the real McCoy of a reversal of a down trend.<br /></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-82321562450616935242009-03-11T08:46:00.000-07:002009-03-11T09:04:32.241-07:00Financial Crisis, 10 Mar 2009: Dow 6,926.49, +379.44 (+5.8%)Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) roared back up 379.44 points to close at 6,926.49, up 5.8% on the day. This raised the Dow to close to its February close, just above 7,000.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN1054441120090310?rpc=44">good news</a> in <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE52966Z20090310">perspective</a> shows how far the market has yet to recover. It was still down over 2,000 points on the calendar year 2009, which it began over 9,000. For the full twelve month proceeding period, it is far off the 13,000+ value it held back in May 2008. It is estimated by Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group LP that 40-45% of the world’s wealth has been destroyed by the downturn.<br /><br />Yet for Wall Street and for those dependent on their portfolio, 10 March 2009 was a welcome relief.<br /><br />The market cited the reason for the significant uptick was surprising news from Citibank, which internally shared a memo it had made a profit in the first two months of 2009. That message leaked to the market, and there was a definite bounce.<br /><br />Other good news included Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, saying that the “uptick” rule, which curbs short selling, may be reimposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. While in prior days many free market philosophies would have seen this as government interference, in today’s market active involvement of watchdogs is seen as a healthy thing for all parties.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3379889511700249798.post-43462103294126113112009-03-09T22:00:00.000-07:002009-03-09T22:28:57.797-07:00Zimbabwe: Once a Breadbasket, Now a BasketcaseBack in 2002, Robert Mugabe ordered 2,000 white farmers to cease production on their farms. <span style="font-style: italic;">The Economist </span>and <span style="font-style: italic;">The Atlantic </span>began speaking about changing the nation from the <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200312/power">Breadbasket of Africa to the Basketcase</a> of the continent. <span style="font-style: italic;">The Atlantic</span>’s December 2003 article is particularly damning, and the news has only grown grimmer since.<br /><br />Just today, the World Health Organization released information that <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090309/wl_africa_afp/zimbabwehealthcholerawho">over 4,000 people have died </a>of cholera, and and another 89,000 have been infected. The “good news” is that the number of diagnosed cases has dropped to 4,000 - 4,500 per week, down from a peak of 8,000 per week at the height of the crisis. However, the casualty figures are still likely to continue, especially in the hinterlands of the nation, where the death rate is far higher than in the urban areas due to lack of water treatment and medicine.<br /><br />The GDP per capita for the nation was <a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=zi&v=67">$2,400 in the year 2000</a>. By 2004, it had fallen to <a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/zimbabwe/gdp_per_capita.html">$1,700 </a>(as per the 2004 CIA World Factbook). In the latest reports, GDP per capita had <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/zi.html">plunged to $200</a>. While we may rue our financial crisis, in Zimbabwe in 2008, inflation had driven prices up by 11.2 million percent.<br /><br />All forms of social services are collapsing, from education to healthcare to basic security. Human rights are in <a href="http://www.voanews.com/uspolicy/2009-03-09-voa6.cfm">shambles</a>. Corruption is rampant. <a href="http://www.amnestyusa.org/document.php?id=ENGNAU200903049630&lang=e">Arrests of dissidents</a> and opposition figures, disappearances as well as torture, remain a daily factor of life.<br /><br />A possible positive sign of economic change was mentioned today. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met with representatives of the Zimbabwe government to begin talks about <a href="http://www.africasia.com/services/news/newsitem.php?area=africa&item=090309144718.odju9c8m.php">restoring ties to the nation</a>, which nearly had its membership in the IMF revoked in 2006.<br /><br />However, whatever path Zimbabwe will take out of its current predicament will be a long road, simply trying to restore itself to a level of peace, productivity and prosperity it once knew years ago.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03404965919549080512noreply@blogger.com0