Global Understanding Institute

Armistice Day, Veteran's Day

2009-11-08T10:31:00.002-08:00

This was posted by me as a comment to another journal on another web site. The writer wrote about Veteran's Day, and made what I considered a few minor, yet specific errors in her otherwise well-written essay.

First error: "The holiday was established as Armistice Day in 1918 to honor soldiers who have served this country in the Air Force, Army, Marines and Navy."

Second error: "It’s not a day of remembrance, but of recognition."

I thought I'd put my comment here in my journal as well. First, to give paragraph breaks. ;) Secondly, so others who read my own journal may see where I stand on the issue.

~~~

Just a point of historical correction. The first Armistice Day was declared in 1919 by Woodrow Wilson to commemorate the end of the war. As the years went on, Congress decided to formalize the purpose of the Holiday, and passed an Act of Congress. As Wikipedia puts it: An Act (52 Stat. 351; 5 U. S. Code, Sec. 87a) approved May 13, 1938, made the 11th of November in each year a legal holiday; "a day to be dedicated to the cause of world peace and to be thereafter celebrated and known as 'Armistice Day'."

It was only after World War II and Korea that Armistice Day changed in meaning, from the dedication to world peace, to the commemoration of Veteran's service. In a way, I believe that this disenfranchised many people, such as the civilian contributors to wartime efforts, and those that strive for peaceful outcomes -- to ameliorate present conflicts and prevent future ones. If we returned to the original intent, then the vast majority of the world, civilians and soldiers alike, can feel invested in the cause of the day.

Lastly, I must correct this point of yours. For it is a day of remembrance. Indeed, around the nations of the British Commonwealth, it is still called "Remembrance Day," in commemoration of the Armistice and those that fought and died to achieve the peace that follows war. To remember, they wear the red poppy, symbolizing the fallen soldiers, strewn like flowers on the field.

Call me a traditionalist, but I believe that we should all remember that 20 million died in the First World War. 72 million in the Second World War. And, especially in the latter conflict, and to the present day, it is the civilians who suffer the vast majority of casualties. A mother huddled in a house, sheltering her children from the onslaught around her, knows the same -- if not greater -- threats and fears of battle as any soldier. All-too-often she and her children suffer the same fate the soldiers do. Armistice Day is now called Veteran's Day. Yet truly recall and reflect this year on the origins of the holiday, thank you.

~~~

This is not to disrespect the contributions and sacrifices of anyone in uniform. Indeed, anyone who knows my past will know the work I have done in analysis and commemoration of military history. Yet so long as we segregate the holiday to honor only those who wore a uniform (about 10% of the U.S. population), it bifurcates our populace, with the majority of the civilian population seeming only to mark the day as one of increased shopping discounts. How do we ensure that all people would reflect on the dangers of our world, and those who strove, and still work to keep us safe from them?

Ninety one years ago on this 11th of November was the original Armistice of the Great War. There was not a Second World War yet. Indeed, they had hoped that it would be the "war to end all wars." Sadly, there would be no "peace for our time." And through this very day, chaotic, violent wars are still being fought in dozens of conflict zones spanning both hemispheres. What can we do between now and the 100th Anniversary of the Armistice, the 11th of November 2018?

For me, and for some certain friends of mine, we are returning to an original intent. We are personally referring henceforth to the day as Armistice Day. Not out of spite to any veteran, but to remind all -- civilian and military -- that the origin of the national, indeed, global holiday was to ensure that we never again commit our nations to the horrific destructive methods and ends we, and our forefathers, sought in the past. That we seek a world where the amelioration and end to such horrors is a goal and an ethical standard we all must commit ourselves to.

So how about you? Would you support returning to the original intent of the holiday, and to call it Armistice Day? Should we specifically commemorate the uniformed veterans only, or should we consider the entirety of those involved -- civil government as well as military, those who serve in NGOs, the war correspondents, the peacemakers and the peacekeepers, the civilians and refugees. Can we use this day, once per year, to honor all those who suffer from war, and those who contribute to the cessation of hostilities. Can we commit ourselves, united again to the cause of world peace?

MSNBC: World Running Amok?

2009-07-08T21:13:00.000-07:00

Iraq and Afghanistan. Pakistan. Iran. Honduras. Nigeria. Somalia. Uganda. Palestine. The list goes on-and-on.

On MSNBC, the question was raised as to whether the world is running amok these days. Is there greater violence? And is the new media feeding the unrest?

In a way, yes. Media is being used by people for propagandistic reasons: to sow ethnic tensions, breed distrust, and to foment conflict. However, that can be done even more effectively through traditional mass media: print and television and radio broadcast systems.

For centuries, atrocities and uprisings have been the source of civil changes. Paintings, printed cartoons and articles in newspapers, and popular songs inspired, and were inspired by, the American and French Revolutions.

Goya was commissioned to depict the atrocities of the Napoleonic Wars and their impact on Spain in the 19th Century.

A century later, in the same nation, Picasso painted his famous Guernica in the teeth of the Spanish Civil War, capturing the shattered spirit of his nation by depicting the bombing of a village by Fascist forces.

The 20th Century added the radio report and movie newsreel, which affected the popular support of World War II. And in the latter half of the century, television reports dramatically altered public perceptions of many conflicts, from Vietnam to the Balkans.

So today we have podcasts from battlezones, and Twitter and YouTube revolutions. Should we expect any less?

During the history of the world, powers-that-be and counter-regime movements all used the available technology to promulgate their visions and foment conflict and raise their points of view to their domestic audiences and to appeal to the masses overseas. To its credit, at times media has also been used to sooth tensions, promote unity and call for peace and resolution of violence.

Conflicts have gone on for millennia, so human violence is not new. The technology to conduct or put down civil instability and insurrection is more advanced today. The technology to report about such civil disorder and martial action is more advanced and permeated globally than ever before.

In absolute terms, I would argue that global violence is increasing greatly in potential terms, but has so far only been bubbling up modestly in actual incidence rates.

There has never before been 6.7 billion people in the world. Thus the total amount of potential and actual violence is greater these days simply because there are more people who can, and do, enter into conflict.

Yet we should also thank our lucky stars. While we have many regional wars around the world, we have so far, fortunately, avoided an all-out regional or full-scale world war between major powers, potentially involving weapons of mass destruction.

The question is: what are the desires of people today to use their communications technology? To resist unjust oppression, to promote truth, or to stir ancient enmities and fuel bitterness based on falsehoods? What are the aims and purposes? What is the trend globally towards raising the bars of tension and violence, or to find civil and just solutions to the world’s problems without resorting to the fist, the bullet, the bomb, or the IED.

One thing is certain. Between 1914-1918 there was the First World War. Between 1939-1945 we had World War II. Since then, though anti-colonial wars and the Cold War, and various regional conflicts have been bloody and brutal, we have avoided further nuclear war, and we have avoided a total war on a global basis between superpowers.

Today’s violence is troubling because it harkens back to the days of the Balkans Wars that proceeded World War I, or the expansionist wars and jostling for global dominance that proceeded World War II. Many regional wars can each become flashpoints for larger conflicts.

Each conflict, when taken in isolation, can be rationalized for why it exists. From the uprisings against the oil-backed regime in Nigeria, to the Muslim extremist conflicts of Taliban forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the violent mobs of Uyghurs in China. Solutions to such chronic problems are more elusive, especially when the populations involved would rather remain in conflict rather than seek mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence.

Americans can sometimes be at odds with our own nature when it comes to consideration of other nation’s civil unrest and uprisings. It is natural rebellion against tyranny. Should we support such causes, much as we venerate the original American Revolution? Or is it the work of power brokers and even criminal elements disguising themselves under layers of propaganda capitalizing on popular unrest?

Media is required to see the acts of repression of brutal governments. Media is required to expose agents provocateur bent on causing violence regardless of whether it is justified or not, for their own private agenda’s benefit. Media both promotes the acts of terrorism by making them more visible, and it also makes possible states to repress civil disapproval through propaganda and social controls. Yet media is also required to put all such stories in context and perspective.

The world has not yet run amok. Not yet. It is vital for humanity to collectively discuss what needs to happen to prevent a global war over the course of this century as we suffered from in prior centuries. It is appropriate to confer, both as political regimes and as private citizens and public groups to devise strategies to prevent an unprecedented risk to the billions of people around the world presently and in the decades to come.

It is also folly to believe good wishes and thoughts alone can prevent calamity. For everyone who benefits from a peaceful, stable world economy, there are those for whom the concept of peace is anathema. The harmony and stability do not serve their ends.

We must also allow for the just expression of grievances and changes to social structure over time. There must be permissible “safety valves” of civil unrest to allow peoples to collectively choose their own desired states rather than live with domineering regimes that offer “peace and stability” in false measures through insidious means. For one person’s peaceful and pleasant society is often another person’s brutally repressive regime.

This past week has been the celebration of the U.S. Independence Day. A day that marked a declaration to the world of the principles of liberty and the ends to which people would go to oppose repressive tyranny. Yet increasingly, many people around the world worry that the U.S. has become the same sort of dominant, repressive power that we once fought to overthrow.

I marvel and worry this year. Not so much for the survival of the centuries-old American experiment in democracy, as for the vitality and long-term viability of the new hatchling popular movements for justice around the world. Will they lead to peaceful redress of civil grievances, or plunge the planet into countless fractious civil wars?

Will we, as a civilization, be trapped by our centuries of past means to solve our problems, or will we evolve? Unless we devise new means to settle differences, we will have a hundred Guernicas played out through Twitter and YouTube every year.

Reflections on the Honduras Presidential Removal

2009-07-01T22:03:00.000-07:00

The following comes from a Facebook thread regarding the situation of Manuel Zelaya begun by Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia. His own opening comment was as follows:

Baffled by Honduras situation. The Supreme Court and the democratically elected Congress voted unanimously to remove President Zeleya [sic], who was in open defiance of a court decision about an illegal dismissal of the military command, and about to stage an illegal 'election'. And yet, this action is universally condemned internationally as a "coup"? There must be facts of which I am unaware? — Jimmy Wales (30 June 2009 6:17 pm)

He later accepted the “friendly amendment” of the correct spelling of “Zelaya.”

It reminded me of the quote by Benjamin Franklin wittily delivered in the musical 1776:

Why, Mr. Dickinson, I’m surprised at you! You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person – such as ‘our’ rebellion. It is only in the third person – ‘their’ rebellion – that it is illegal.
— Benjamin Franklin

Another Facebook friend of his stated:

i think the point everybody is missing is that the UN et al cannot condone a government that has seized power in a coup -- by taking the president at gunpoint in his pyjamas. If the president was acting illegally -- as zelaya apparently was -- impeach him dont threaten to murder him and cart him off to costa rica. The Honuduran military has done far worse than Zelaya. Two wrongs don't make a right and other cliches.

Reflecting from a generally naïve point-of-view, I responded:

It was a coup, though a bloodless one. The proper legal method to get rid of him would have been impeachment, with arrest by a civil authority. The military of nations generally are limited constitutionally because the President is generally considered C-in-C. When you overthrow your boss, it is a rebellion. When the military overthrow a president, rather than a legislature, it violates standard civil government checks-and-balances. Thus, technically, a coup.

In response to my thoughts, another direct reply was made to the thread:

Peter, ... the boss of the civil authorities (e.g., the police) that would have to carry the arrest is also the president. By your reasoning it would still be a rebellion. If a subordinate gets a court order to arrest the boss, what should he/she do?

Which is a good point. So tonight I wanted to dig a little deeper. I happened upon a good friend who was perfect for the necessary detective work! Tonight, I replied as follows:

I am sitting tonight with a good friend who is a very educated socio-political academic from Venezuela. He is helping me go over the Honduran Constitution.

The biggest problem is that there is *no* clear provision in the lengthy document on how the various powers maintain checks and balances. There is no direct clause for how to conduct the removal of the Presidente, or most any other elected official. Impeachment is not mentioned, per se.

However, there are a few clauses to work with, primarily: "...la usurpación de los poderes constituidos se tipifican como delitos de Traición a la Patria." Usurpation of constitutional powers is treason.

Thus, if you disobey the Constitution, no one need obey you. This is the argument of the Supreme Court. They can theoretically declare anything unconstitutional, thus treasonable, and can immediately have their judgments put into effect. There is no override on their decisions, except by a popular referendum for a constitutional revision.

In review, the decision of the Honduran Supreme Court seems tacitly legal, though highly disputable.

According to one assessment (CountryStudies.us):

"Honduran constitutions are generally held to have little bearing on Honduran political reality because they are considered aspirations or ideals rather than legal instruments of a working government."

http://countrystudies.us/honduras/84.htm

For the Constitution itself:

http://pdba.georgetown.edu/Constitutions/Honduras/hond05.html

I still maintain my view that this was a quasi-legal coup. While arguably a de jure power of the Supreme Court, it is could be just as arguable that the Supreme Court usurped and overstepped their Constitutional authority. They just had the backing of the military.

Thus, quite conforming to a coup as per Wikipedia: "A coup consists of the infiltration of a small, but critical, segment of the state apparatus, which is then used to displace the government from its control of the remainder.”

The truth of the matter is that the Honduran Constitution is a rather poorly-written set of rules to govern from. Anyone used to playing diplomatic strategy games could spend days arguing about the gaps and fuzzy parts. Eventually the consensus of the players would be that the game seriously needs a second edition of the rules, and, in the meanwhile, a full-blown set of errata and addendum.

While the definitions of “high crimes and misdemeanors” is elastic and arguable, the U.S. Constitution has a far more explicit, albeit very brief, method to determine what to do in case of such crises of confidence in a chief executive.

In Honduras, lacking such explicit methods for removal, the national Supreme Court basically has the tacit de jure power to do what they did. It may indeed rub many people the wrong way, given cultural and political biases towards what we are familiar with in our own systems.

I would be quite interested to hear other opinions on such a topic. Was this a de facto coup d’etat, or a de jure removal of an executive in broach of his constitutional duties?

Mea Culpa - A Hopefully Forgiveable Leave of Absence

2009-07-01T22:00:00.000-07:00

Due to economic requirements during this recession, I was forced to work quite a bit on other duties for the past two months, often seven-days-a-week, and thus was unable to attend to the requirements of world-watching that is implicit in the Global Understanding Movement. Thus you have my mea culpa maxima.

However, I have not been exactly idle.

Stay tuned! More to come!

Swat Valley: The Pot Boils Over

2009-05-05T21:05:00.000-07:00

Any pretensions for an uneasy truce in the Swat Valley between the Pakistani government and the Taliban came to an abrupt end today, as the Taliban began to seize government buildings, and fighting erupted in Mingora, the main city of the valley.

Taliban militants began to siege the police building and many government offices were taken over. 46 government paramilitaries were reported to still hold the city’s electrical grid station. At least 18 civilians were reported wounded in the crossfire. Over the past week, sporadic fighting and casualties were reported around many other districts of Malakand, a region in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). That fighting now seems to be intensifying considerably across the NWFP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Indeed, the government is encouraging citizens to flee for their safety, according to reports from Al Jazeera. CNN reports that a major offensive may begin as soon as Wednesday, 6 May 2009. As soon as the government warning was issued, residents of Mingora began to pile on buses to escape the expected fighting. The Pakistani government predicts that as many as 500,000 people may flee the region in coming days.

This number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) would exceed the numbers that fled in the wake of prior conflicts in the Swat Valley last year. In February 2009, it was reported that over 337,000 had fled ahead of the fighting. Though most of those returned to their homes after the cease fire between the Taliban and the government.

Forces Involved

UPDATE: Taliban forces cited in the AP as 7,000; Pakistani military forces at 15,000. (6 May 2009)

Taliban: The militants are believed to have forces of about 7,000 insurgents in the Swat Valley and environs. According to the Pakistani military, 400 Taliban had advanced into the Buner area and had put up stiff resistance. Many of those were killed in the past week’s counterinsurgency by government forces.

Pakistani military: Frontier Corps province forces bolstered by heavy armor, artillery and paratroopers positioned around the Swat Valley in preparation for an offensive. Totaling approximately 15,000 troops. While the Pakistani Army has a total force of 550,000 regular troops, there has not yet been a dramatic shift in defensive posture in the nation. About half of Pakistan’s forces, approximately 250,000 soldiers, remain deployed against the border with India, Pakistan’s traditional enemy.

Pakistani police: This force has proven so far to be the least reliable of the government forces. When the Taliban first advanced through the Swat Valley region, 700 of total 1,700 police officers abandoned their posts. However, they are regrouping since their initial defeats. In the NWFP capital of Peshawar, antiterrorist police forces killed 88 suspected terrorists in the past few months.

The Taliban claims that it now controls 90% of Swat. However, if it spread its 7,000 troops across the Swat district, which is 5,337 square km (an area about the size of the state of Delaware), that would equate to a bit more than 1 man per square kilometer. It is unlikely there are any Taliban in much of the province. Instead, based on various reports, the more likely situation is that the Taliban are grouped in central locations: blocking major roads, seizing strategic facilities and key strongpoints, and patrolling the capital and other urban areas.

The question for both sides will be the amount of resolve, numbers, and reserves they bring with them to the conflict. This is not the first time the Pakistani military has attempted to wrest back control of Swat Valley. In the past, the Taliban has been able to keep control of this central and key region.

This time seems different. The government and the Pakistani people seem to be recognizing the degree to which the government has lost control of its territory. And the people of Swat seem somewhat reticent to greet the Taliban as welcome liberators. Part of this may be due to the presence of foreign fighters: Uzbeks and Tajiks.

Prospects for Peace

Not good, to begin with. The Taliban seem unapologetic and ready for a fight. For its own part, the Pakistani military seems ready to flex its considerable muscles and is likewise ready for a fight, albeit somewhat reluctantly.

The Taliban has been, so far, the mouse that roared. Its few thousand irregular insurgents, armed with the ubiquitous small arms of AK-47 and RPGs, have in the past beaten off poorly-paid Pakistani provincial forces, police and paramilitaries. Now, the regular Pakistani military seems to be bringing out, quite literally, its big guns for the upcoming fight.

Pakistan's Swat Valley Simmers

2009-05-03T21:44:00.000-07:00

In Pakistan’s northern Swat Valley this week, the Pakistani Army and the Taliban have both been pushing and prodding each other in a turf war. Likewise, the Pakistani Army went on the full offensive across Swat, Buner and Dir.

The Army announced that it had recently killed 80 militants, including local Taliban commanders; a total of 170 - 200 have been killed since the Army’s offensive was launched on 26 April. The Taliban retaliated by beheading two captured soldiers.

Furthermore, as proof of the violation of the peace deal brokered earlier in the year, the Pakistani Army announced it had captured three Taliban vehicles filled with explosives that were to be used in suicide attacks. Plus, a bank had been looted, the power grid had been attacked, and a bridge was partially blown up, all laid at the doorstep of the Taliban and its forces. Overnight curfews have been imposed, but the Taliban has taken to patrolling the streets with their own armed soldiers.

Eight Islamic Sharia-law judges, known as qazis, have been appointed, and a new Sharia appellate court, called the Darul Qaza, has been established. Yet the Taliban is rejecting these government measures.

The Pakistani government, for its part, seems to be preparing to use this week’s news as collective proof of the government’s good faith, and to regard the Taliban’s actions as a broach of the agreement, thereby possibly opening up a full resumption of military activities.

Indeed, according to Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Information Minister Sufi Muhammed, with the establishment of the new Sharia-based qazi courts, “Now anyone carrying arms would be treated as a rebel and would be prosecuted in the qazi court.” It is unlikely that the Taliban will comply with this government edict.

A major concern for the conflict is the prospect of civilian casualties and refugees. According to the Sunday Times, 2,000 hostages are being held as human shields in Pir Baba. The unrest has caused 90,000 refugees to flee the conflict zones in the NFWP; 30,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) were caused from the fighting in Lower Dir alone. However, the Pakistani government has been somewhat obscure on civilian casualties.

The Voice of America did not go into specifics of threats to the civilian populace, other than the passing reference to the execution of three civilians, instead focusing on the advance of Pakistani troops to the borders of Swat itself. If the Pakistani government declares the deal with the Taliban forfeit due to numerous violations, it is to be expected those troops will advance into the Swat Valley.

Influenza A (H1N1) Update 3 May 2009 - Some Statistics

2009-05-03T20:40:00.001-07:00

There are some people wondering if the media and government attention to the current Influenza A H1N1 outbreak seems to be warranted, or whether there has been too much hype on the topic.

Seems Less Deadly Now

The good news is this strain has not become the “killer pandemic” that has worried epidemiologists for years. Yet it is still a cause for concern.

Even now, a pandemic warning seems prudently warranted. Emphasis on “seems.” Out of the 935 proven cases so far, there have been 23 deaths, for a mortality rate of 2.46%. Out of the suspected 4,585 cases, there have been 101 suspected deaths; a mortality rate of 2.2%.

The good news is that this mortality rate of 2.2% - 2.46% is as little as half that of earlier in the week, when it was calculated to be between 3.4% - 4.3%.

How Bad Can It Get?

Influenza outbreak typically affects 5% - 20% of the population, according to the CDC. If this particular strain of A H1N1 spread worldwide to a maximal uncontrolled extent, that would equate to 335 million to 1.34 billion cases. Given a 2.2% - 2.46% mortality rate, that would equate to global deaths of 8.2 million to 32 million. This is a worst-case scenario, predicated on the mortality rate remaining at >2%, and for 100% of the world to be exposed to infection.

By analogy, consider smaller populations. Take a subway car of 200 New Yorkers. If they all had the flu, pull two of them off the train in body bags. Take a flight of 200 people on an airliner. Pull two off in gurneys sent to the morgue. No one wants to be those two people. No public health official wants that risk.

Those analogies would be if all 200 persons aboard that train or aircraft actually caught the H1N1 virus, and if the present mortality rate remained unchanged. A more accurate analogy would be that, out of a busy subway station or airport, as many as one subway car or aircraft out of five, or as few as one out of twenty, would eventually contain virus-carriers.

If it was a sports stadium of 50,000 people, somewhere between 2,500 - 10,000 would get sick, and somewhere between 50 - 200 would die. Again, predicated on exposure of 100% of the attendees.

That is what would happen if we allowed the virus to remain uncontained, if we took no precautions to prevent the spread of the disease, and if the public remained unwary to seek medical assistance.

Take Care and Due Precaution

This is why minimizing exposure to the virus is so vital, and why those affected should not hesitate to seek help. The more the virus can be contained so it burns out before spreading, the better. The more people who go to the doctor when they feel as if something is just not right the better. Thus, while panic is unwarranted, precaution and care is quite important.

The U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) has a number of recommendations for preventing seasonal flu, and how to take care of yourself if and when you catch the flu.

Global Understanding wishes everyone the best and safest of spring seasons. Let’s hope this is an emerging crisis that becomes a non-issue with proper care and due diligence.

Influenza A (H1N1) - A Background in Pandemic

2009-04-30T09:13:00.000-07:00

Many people around the world have heard now of the outbreak of the flu, informally nicknamed the “swine flu,” or “Mexican flu,” yet which is officially designated as a strain of Influenza A virus subtype H1N1. It is actually a unique mutation, with a combination of four strains of flu, comprised of human, avian and two separate swine flu virus elements.

As of this writing, the virus is confirmed to have spread across thirteen separate nations in North America (Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico and the U.S.), South America (Peru), Europe (Austria, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, U.K.), Asia (Israel), and the Pacific (New Zealand). Beyond that, there are suspected cases in 25 more nations spanning every continent barring Antarctica.

In response, the Mexican government has already decided to shutter a great deal of places of education and business, and has cancelled many events to minimize public contact. Individual schools in the United States have also closed due to localized outbreaks. Many other nations have taken extreme, seemingly irrational proactive measures, such as slaughtering pigs, or putting a ban on pork products, though there has been no evidence of a pig being infected by this strain of virus.

As of 30 April 2009, there have been at least 3,964 suspected cases around the world, with the vast majority (2,498) occurring in Mexico. Out of those suspected cases there have been 265 cases confirmed by laboratories a being the H1N1 strain. It has caused 168 suspected deaths and 9 confirmed deaths, with most of those deaths occurring in Mexico.

This puts the mortality of the virus, so far, between 3.4% - 4.2%.

Comparison With Other Influenza Outbreaks

Influenza outbreaks and related hospitalizations and deaths occur annually, and each flu season varies greatly. Even during mild years, influenza takes more lives on an annual basis than many other causes of death.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 5-15% of populations are generally affected. Every year worldwide, three to five million people are stricken with severe illness due to influenza, and 250,000 - 500,000 die. That equates roughly to a global mortality rate of 0.004% - 0.0075% of the total world population, and 0.02% - 0.15% for those infected with the virus.

It is sometimes not the influenza itself that kills, but the pneumonia that sets in as the body’s immune system responds. Therefore, the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC) commonly combines annual mortality statistics as Pneumonia/Influenza, or “P&I,” and estimates an annual death rate in the U.S. of 36,000, and hospitalizations at over 200,000. The CDC estimates between 5% - 20% of the U.S. population is affected by flu every season. Annual U.S. deaths can therefore range between 30,000 to 50,000. Which equates to an annual mortality rate between 0.01% - 0.015% of the total population, or 0.05% - 0.33% of the infected population.

Thus note that most flu outbreaks infect a large population, but are generally mostly mildly debilitating. While deaths and hospitalizations occur, they are limited to a small percentage of the affected population; with usually far less than 1% mortality rate.

In comparison, consider the avian flu outbreak of 2003-2009. It was caused by a very different strain of A(H5N1), the total number of human cases was limited to 421, but the mortality rate was very high: 257 deaths, or 61%.

The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus in 2002-2003 also serves as a comparative example. Out of 8,273 cases reported, there were 775 deaths. This equates to a mortality rate of 9.6%.

Right now, the current rate of mortality for the A(H1N1) virus is half that of SARS, and far less than a tenth of the lethality of the avian flu outbreak.

Influenza vs. Cholera

Another comparison to give pause is that of cholera in Zimbabwe and sub-Saharan Africa over the past year. According to the U.N. Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, through 2 April 2009, in Zimbabwe alone there were 94,443 suspected cases of bacterial cholera and 4,127 deaths, for a fatality rate of 4.3%.

It has been confirmed to have spread to neighboring Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. Other cases are reported across sub-Sarahan Africa: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, and Togo.

It is too early to predict the rapidity of the spread and long-term mortality rate of the present A(H1N1) virus, yet to date its mortality rate is comparable to the African cholera epidemic. However, global reaction to the cholera outbreak remains muted in comparison to the front-page news of the A(H1N1) virus.

Present and Future Considerations

Unknowns still to be determined would be why the disease has proven fatal in Mexico (and one case of a Mexican child who came to the U.S. with the infection), while other cases around the world have not proven fatal.

GlobalSecurity.org has an article analyzing the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on the U.S. economy. Note that the actual effects of the actual present A(H1N1) influenza outbreak will vary widely from these estimates and that Health and Human Services (HHS)’s figures vary widely from those of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Related TED Talks

In 2006, Dr. Larry Brilliant talked about the eradication of small pox and polio, and how influenza pandemics occur. In his talk, he mentioned the Canadian organization GPHIN, and its role in identification of SARS. From that, with his $100,000 TED prize, he created InSTEDD, a global disease tracking organization based in Palo Alto, California.

Pulitzer-prize winner Laurie Garrett spoke at TED in 2007 about the 1918 flu pandemic, and what is different between then and now. Her words are quite illuminating towards how we can, and how we may not be able to, respond as communities and governments.

Both speakers focus on the avian flu, which is a different strain than the A(H1N1) “swine” flu. Yet the overall message and information remains relevant for knowing about how to face a global influenza outbreak.

Latest developments in Thailand

2009-04-24T23:44:00.000-07:00

The Prime Minister has withdrawn the decree imposing emergency rule, agreed to an independent inquiry into the clashes and called for constitutional reforms to heal the deep political rift; Red shirts plan a protest in Bangkok tonight; Detained red shirt leaders have been freed on bail; Thaksin is in Liberia.

"The lifting of the decree will send a signal to the world that Thailand is back to normal," the Prime Minister said.

"We will demand Abhisit's resignation, a dissolution of the House and the scrapping of all arrest warrants against the red shirts," said Somyos Prueksakasemsuk, a leader of the pro-Thaksin United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD).

Meanwhile, police are hunting for others blamed for Thailand's worst street violence in 16 years, as well as gunmen who attempted to assassinate the leader of a royalist, pro-government group.

In the post below, you will note that forensics analysis has traced the M-16 bullets fired in the 17 April 2009 assassination attempt of Sondhi Limthongkul, to the Thai First Army’s Ninth Infantry division. Could we see the police pitted against the army? Let's not forget, Thaksin is a former policeman.

Although Thai officials revoked Thaksin's passport after the latest violence in Bangkok, he has obtained, no less than a diplomatic passport from Nicaragua. Thaksin is in Liberia on a search for investment opportunities in mining, agriculture and gas.

Where Thailand goes from here, is anyone's guess. It is hoped that cool heads prevail. Given the deep and bitter divide between the parties and the long-running history of political instability, that seems very unlikely.

All eyes will be on the streets of Bangkok tonight, to see if the Red shirts do protest and if they do, what is the reaction by the police and the army. Stay tuned.

If ever there was a need for understanding, now is the time and Thailand is the place.

Thai Army Bullets Used in Sondhi Limthongkul Assassination Attempt

2009-04-23T18:31:00.000-07:00

Royal Thai Army Connection to Assassination

Forensics analysis conducted in the past week have traced the M-16 bullets fired in the 17 April 2009 assassination attempt of Sondhi Limthongkul, founder of the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) political party, according to reports from the Associated Press. The bullets were issued to the Thai First Army’s Ninth Infantry division.

How the army’s bullets came to be appropriated and used in the assassination attempt remains unknown. Likewise there have been no arrests. Yet it casts a cloud over the role of the military in Thai politics.

Meanwhile, Sondhi is reported to be doing better and is expected to be released from the hospital on Friday.

9th Division History

The Royal Thai Army’s 9th Division was originally known as the Royal Thai Army Volunteer Force, a Vietnam War-era unit that grew from a battalion (about 700-800 men) to a division size (11,266 men) between 1966 and 1968. The unit was incorporated into the Thai Royal Army as the 9th Division after its return from Vietnam in 1971. In 1981, it was assigned to the 1st Army’s area of operations, which is centered around Bangkok. It is responsible for internal security.

In 1997, the 9th Division was named in allegations of physical abuse of refugees fleeing the instability in Burma (now Myanmar). More recently, in 2002, the 9th Division was specifically mentioned in an Amnesty International report of the forcible deportation of 63 Myanmar refugees. Problems with diplaced persons and a flood of over half-a-million migrant workers have challenged Thailand for the better part of the last decade.

The Royal Thai Army has been a decisive factor in the coups and political turnovers of recent years. It was instrumental in the 2006 coup which deposed Thaksin Shinawatra. At that time, the military supported the PAD’s goal of deposing the Thaksin government.

Even considering the assassination attempt of a major political leader, threats of additional armed attacks, and the calls for the present government to step down, the two-week state of emergency Thailand has been under will be lifted, according to current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

For now, Thailand seems to have weathered a major political crisis. Yet the political intrigues are likely far from over.

View of Geneva - Racism

2009-04-20T21:31:00.000-07:00

After the turmoil in Thailand, I was going to look at the unrest in India and Pakistan. However, plans of mice and men oft go astray.

The controversial U.N. anti-racism conference in Geneva, Switzerland caught mine and I am sure the attention of many other people. Controversial because Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was invited to deliver a keynote speech, in which he accused the West of making "an entire nation homeless under the pretext of Jewish suffering ... in order to establish a totally racist government in occupied Palestine."

As reported by CNN

"It is all the more regrettable that a number of Western governments and the United States have committed themselves to defend those racist perpetrators of genocide," Ahmadinejad said, echoing Tehran's official line on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Many delegates at the controversial U.N. anti-racism conference in Geneva, Switzerland, cheered his words as a minority of diplomats -- mostly from Europe -- collected their papers and briefcases and left the room. Cameras at the scene showed empty seats where delegates from Britain, Spain, France, Finland and Denmark had been sitting. Israel, the US, Australia, Canada, Germany, Poland and Italy boycotted the conference by not sending any representative.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a statement criticizing Ahmadinejad for using the conference "to accuse, divide and even incite." Ban said he had spoken to the Iranian president and asked him not to focus on "divisiveness" in his address. "It is deeply regrettable that my plea to look to the future of unity was not heeded by the Iranian president," Ban said.

Perhaps Peter Gooderham, Britain's envoy to the U.N. in Geneva, said what is on the minds of many people, "The UK unreservedly condemns Iranian President Ahmadinejad's offensive and inflammatory comments. Such outrageous, anti-Semitic remarks should have no place in a U.N. anti-racism forum.

While rejecting the boycott, Navi Pillay, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, urged reporters "not allow this one intervention to mar the conference. "I prefer to move on," she said at a news conference after Ahmadinejad's speech. She also criticized the delegates who walked out during his speech, saying his "unsavory remarks" did not "provide justification for anyone to walk out of the conference." She said that she regrets and is "shocked" by the U S decision to boycott the conference.

As reported by Associated Press

The United States understands racism well, it has been and still is an integral part of that nation’s history. Many hope that the election of the nation’s first African-American President would go a long way to bring change and tolerance.

The Southern Poverty Law Center, in its annual hate group report, "The Year in Hate" found the number of hate groups grew by 54 percent since 2000. The study identified 926 hate groups -- defined as groups with beliefs or practices that attack or malign an entire class of people -- active in 2008. That's a 4 percent jump, adding 38 more than the year before.

Don Black, a 55-year-old former Ku Klux Klan Grand Wizard claims the number of registered members and readers on his white nationalist Web site surged to unprecedented levels in recent months. On the day after Obama's historic election, more than 2,000 people joined his Web site, a remarkable increase from the approximately 80 new members a day he was getting, Black said. His Web site, which was started in 1995, is one of the oldest and largest hate group sites. The site received so many hits that it crashed after election results were announced. The site boasts 110,000 registered members today, Black said. "People who had been a little more complacent and kind of upset became more motivated to do something," said Black, who also said he joined his first hate group at age 15.

Hate groups cited by the law center include white nationalists as well as neo-Confederates, neo-Nazis, skinheads, Klansman and black separatists. Skinheads and Klansman saw an increase in membership, while neo-Nazi groups saw a slight decline, according to the law center's report.

Most of the hate groups are located in the South, but the state with the highest number of documented hate groups is California with 84.

Obama serves as a "visual aid" that is helping respark a sense of purpose in current supporters and lure new members, said neo-Nazi David Duke, the former Klan leader who was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives in the 1980s. Duke said he fears "the white European-American" heritage will soon be destroyed. He added that his Web site sees around 40,000 unique visitors a day, up from 15,000 a day before Obama won the election.

Racist anger toward Obama was evident even before he became president. Two weeks before Obama won, authorities said they foiled a skinhead plot to assassinate him. The two suspects, based in Tennessee, also apparently planned to shoot and decapitate dozens of African-Americans, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives said.

White supremacist groups have gained traction, a reversal from the decline the groups experienced since 2000, according to the law center report. One of the smaller Ku Klux Klan groups, the United Northern and Southern Knights, more than doubled its chapters, widening its geographic reach from eight to 24 states, according to the report.

The image of a black man in the White House angers white racists, who fear nonwhites gaining too much power, said Jack Glaser, associate professor of public policy at the University of California-Berkeley.

But racist fears can also be more mundane and personal: Nonwhites in the White House could lead to nonwhites in their neighborhoods, which could lead to interracial dating, a great taboo among hate groups.

"Obama poses a large cultural threat to white racists," Glaser said. "This may explain some of the uptick in hate groups."

Immigrants are another target of hate groups, according to the report. In a deteriorating economy, illegal immigrants have been blamed by hate groups for allegedly taking subprime loans, according to the report.

Scapegoating occurs most often in times of economic distress, according to experts studying hate crimes. From the Holocaust in Europe to abuses against Irish Catholic immigrants in the 1830s in the United States, people are most likely to lash out against others when they feel vulnerable or need to displace their economic frustrations on others, psychologists say.

In the city of Detroit, Michigan, where the weak economy has taken a particularly devastating toll, Jeff Schoep serves as the commander for the National Socialist Movement, one of the largest neo-Nazi groups in the United States.

Schoep said he has seen membership grow by 40 percent in recent months, mostly because of the dire economic circumstances. It is the "most dramatic growth" he has seen since he joined the movement in the mid-1990s. The group does not reveal membership numbers to the media, he said.

"You have an American work force facing massive unemployment," Schoep said. "And you have presidents and politicians flinging open the borders telling them to take the few jobs left while our men are in soup kitchens."

Experts studying hate crimes say there is no reliable way to link the growing number of hate groups with an increase in hate crimes, since many of the attacks go unreported.

The FBI's uniform crime report found 7,163 hate crime incidents in 2005. However, a special report by the government that same year said the number could be 10 times higher because many of the crimes aren't reported.

The most recent FBI statistics in 2007 saw a slight uptick in hate crimes to 7,624.

Some hate groups such as the National Socialist Movement do not publicly condone violence or terrorist acts."Violence is absolutely counterproductive," said Duke, the former Louisiana legislator and neo-Nazi.

But experts say there is a link between joining a hate group and committing violent crimes. Recently in New Orleans, Louisiana, a grand jury indicted four people in the alleged shooting of a woman who tried to leave a Ku Klux Klan initiation, the Southern Poverty Law Center reported.

More commonly, members of hate groups engage in vandalism such as an incident in Los Angeles, California, this month where vandals slashed tires and sprayed the word "Nazi" on two cars and a house, according to the center. The attack occurred in a neighborhood with signs displaying support for Obama.

Dr. Alvin F. Poussaint, a professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School who studied the issue of hate crimes, said people in hate groups can feel paranoid about a specific group of people. This panic leads them to feel threatened, and they may react with violence, he said. "Their thinking is very distorted," Poussaint said.

As posted by Arun alias Axee on www.tickledbylife.com

How times have changed! Black dog is not thrown out of the field!

South Africa: Circa 1893. Scene: Railway platform Pietermaritzburg railway station.

A train is halted unceremoniously, by the then white majority. A two legged Indian, “black dog” all suited and booted like an Englishman, was unceremoniously thrown out, onto the platform as he was travelling in the first class.

Travelling on business, from Durban to Johannesburg, as an educated, qualified lawyer, who was then, the first so-called “coloured” lawyer admitted to the Supreme Court, he was travelling with a valid ticket.

There he was lying, on the platform. A human being, with his pride hurt to the hilt. Prejudice towards his skin colour had showed him this day. He resolved here, that he would put an end to this evil. He did so, through sheer grit and determination, in times to come.

South Africa: April 18, 2009. Scene: Day one of the inaugural Match of IPL: Mumbai Indians versus Chennai Kings.

The match begun, Sachin Tendukar, an Indian cricketer who is recognized and respected by the world as an all time great player, is in full form and flow and in command of the situation.
Runs are flowing from his bat, despite his age.

Suddenly, the game gets held up; as a four legged “Black Dog” enters the field and holds up the play, for a good 10 minutes! A game that is being aired all over the globe, with millions of viewers glued to their TV sets, comes to a grinding halt!

The world sees a real four legged “Black Dog” holding up the proceedings. Efforts are underway quickly to get rid of the “Black Dog”! Committees designed by organizers for such exigencies, get into the act! The dog is neither lassoed nor is it thrown out! All efforts fail. Patience is not lost. TV Cameras continue to record and report.

Finally, the “four legged black dog” is respectfully removed from the scene by a white Lady, using the lure of a cookie. Not a hair of that genuine “Black Dog” was ruffled in the bargain. It was lovingly and caringly, removed, by a white human being, in a dignified manner. The commentator too ironically remarked, ‘removed through the VIP stands’ exit!’

Wow! What a change! All of us as humans, witnessed and enjoyed that change as it happened. In these past 100 plus years change has indeed, happened. Happened for the good: to the whole world. Apartheid has melted away completely.

The respect that the dog commanded, made my mind rush back to the events, in 1893 on the platform of Pietermaritzburg railway station. A comparative of life then, and life now!

Come to think of it, the commentator himself used the word “lassie” and never uttered the words “dog” or a “black dog.” The dog in question, indeed, had its day! A field day, on a billion dollar field. It never bought a ticket for this field day, and it was not thrown out!

We need understanding

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the world to rally against the threat that intolerance could rise as a result of the economic crisis, saying “the time is now” to stamp out racism. On opening the conference in Geneva, Ban said that racism including anti-Semitism and Islamophobia need to be tackled. He went on to say, “There comes a time to reaffirm our faith in fundamental human rights and the dignity and worth of us all.”

The above shows that there is a crying need for Global Understanding. As Ban said, now is the time. Let us try to live together in harmony, is the motto of the Global Understanding Institute (GUI). The Global Understanding movement was formed in 2006 and launched on Valentine's Day of that year (14 February 2006).

It was formed by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.

We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.

We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.

GUI is now on Twitter (http://twitter.com/GUInstitute) where you can catch up on the real-time updates. If you would like to play a role in promoting global understanding, please contact Peter Corless at 650-906-3134 (mobile); or by email at petercorless@mac.com. You can also find Peter on Facebook and on LinkedIn:

View from South East Asia - Repercussions of the recent unrest in Thailand

2009-04-18T20:08:00.000-07:00

Asia Times Online http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia.html continues to produce quality reporting on Thailand. The editor, Shawn Crispin is based there and really has his finger on the pulse. His latest article is ‘Shooting the messenger in Thailand’ (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae02.html).

It a good read about the recent shooting of People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protest group leader Sondhi Limthongkul. He ends the article with the sombre warning, “The fear now is that Friday's assassination attempt could indicate that the UDD and Thaksin's supporters aim to bypass the courts and mete out justice as they see fit on Thailand's increasingly mean streets.”

Another good article from Asia Times is ‘ASEAN's Pattaya problem' (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD18Ae01.html) by Donald K Emmerson. He reminds us that in the last seven months, Thailand has had four different prime ministers, including one interim premier.

He comments that “ASEAN has long insisted on occupying the driver's seat in vehicles for cooperation between Southeast Asia and countries outside the region. One of these formats is ASEAN Plus Three (APT), the Three being China, Japan, and South Korea. Another is the East Asia Summit, which adds Australia, India, and New Zealand to the APT.

When Thai strife stymied summitry in Pattaya, both of these vehicles were derailed. ASEAN may or may not be outmoded as a vehicle for beneficial comity among Southeast Asians alone. But a second effect of the Thai debacle is to throw into serious doubt the right of ASEAN to drive the larger regional car.“

He continues, “But it is unlikely that many of ASEAN's disappointed leaders, as they were evacuated from Pattaya or turned back en route, blamed the waste of their time on Thailand's failure to handle the demonstrators more democratically. More likely was the opposite conclusion: that the Thai government should have cracked down harder on the protests to stop them from getting out of hand.“

What does the future hold?

Donald K Emmerson ends his article with this comment, “Who will lead ASEAN? On present evidence, for the next four to five years, it will be one authoritarian government after another. What is the future of democracy in Southeast Asia? As of now, and for the same near term, not as bright as might be hoped. “

In rotation, Vietnam will be the next Chair of ASEAN in 2010. The protests that forced the cancellation of the Asean summit in Thailand last weekend will likely lead Vietnam to move slower on political liberalisation, experts said Monday.

"Thailand used to be one of the democratic models for Vietnam, but these incidents in Thailand certainly will make Vietnamese leaders more cautious about democracy," said Professor Trinh Duy Luan, director of Vietnam's Institute for Social Studies.

Officially, Vietnam's government expressed "regret" over the postponement of the Asean summit. " In our view, this is a regrettable event, affecting not only Thailand's image but Asean's process of cooperation," said Nguyen Hong Cuong, director of the Asean Department at Vietnam's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Cuong noted that several agreements on Asean cooperation scheduled to be adopted at the summit had been postponed.

The state-run newspaper Vietnam News reported Monday that Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung hoped that "political stability" would soon return to Thailand, for the sake of its national development its responsibilities as rotating chair of Asean.

But some analysts said the repercussions of Thailand's demonstrations were likely to slow moves in Communist Vietnam to allow greater freedom of organisation and more room for civil society groups.

For several years, the country's National Assembly has debated reforms to the national Law on Associations, which regulates the formation of any kind of civic group. Under current law, all such groups must be affiliated with a government agency or government-chartered "mass organisation," such as the Women's Union or the Union of Science and Technology Associations.

Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam specialist at the Australian Defence Force Academy, said Vietnamese leaders opposed to liberalisation would use the Thai unrest to support strong single-party rule.

"Like any instability in the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, Vietnamese television will show that violence extensively," Thayer said. "The subtext is 'This is what you get when you have a multiparty democracy.'"

Vietnamese television news has been running footage of the protests in Thailand since they began over the weekend.

Nguyen Tran Bat, chair of the Vietnamese consulting firm InvestConsult, agreed that moves to broaden civil society in Vietnam would be limited.

"Vietnam will allow people to have more rights, but in order to facilitate leadership, it will not consider them as natural rights," Bat said. "The concept of what democracy is will certainly be considered more cautiously by Vietnamese leaders."

Being a member of the United Nation Security Council, Vietnam has already chaired the Council for one month and will do so again later this year. It is hope that this experience will bode well when Vietnam chairs ASEAN next year.

We need understanding

Asia is a region in turmoil, from the troubles in Thailand to massacres in Mumbai and threats in Korea. If ever there was a crying need for Global Understanding, now is the time and Asia is the place. In future blogs, we will explore the situation in the other hotspots around Asia.

For now, let us try to live together in harmony, which is the motto of the Global Understanding Institute (GUI). The Global Understanding movement was formed in 2006 and launched on Valentine's Day of that year (14 February 2006).

It was formed by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.

We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.

We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.

GUI is now on Twitter (http://twitter.com/GUInstitute) where you can catch up on the real-time updates. If you would like to play a role in promoting global understanding, please contact Peter Corless at 650-906-3134 (mobile); or by email at petercorless@mac.com. You can also find Peter on Facebook and on LinkedIn:

Who are the Blue Shirts and what about the Black Shirts

2009-04-17T18:01:00.000-07:00

In my previous blog, I referred to the rainbow on Thailand's streets. There are Yellow Shirts, Red Shirts, Blue Shirts and Black Shirts. We know who the Yellow and Red Shirts are, but what about the Blue and Black Shirts?

I came across Kevin Butters Twitter account that mentions them. Kevin originates from the UK and settled in Chiang Mai, Thailand around three years ago, having spent time living and working in China.

“ The Blue Shirts emerged when the Red Shirts began to mount a serious challenge to the government. First, they said they only wanted to protect public utilities, like the airport. But the Red Shirts soon accused them as being thugs hired by the government. Nirmal Ghosh writes about the confrontation between the Blue Shirts and Red Shirts which may shed light about the real leaders of the Blue Shirts.

In the early morning they (Red Shirts) began marching up the hill to the Royal Cliff Resort, venue of the summit, but came face to face with a few hundred of the pro-government militia, well organized with freshly printed dark blue T-shirts saying ‘Protect the Institution' – institution being the a reference to the monarchy.

All the blue shirts were armed with sticks, clubs and iron rods.The face-offs occurred at two locations, each with around 1,000 red shirts against about 150 blue shirts. The men in blue held pictures of the king and queen.

The blue shirted men – clearly a militia – essentially took shelter behind the army, whose officers made no attempt to disarm them.According to two sources, the blue shirts had been organized by the mayor of Pattaya, who is the son of ‘Kamnan Poh' – a controversial strongman of the province.

What are the reactions of Thai residents who are not directly involved in the political crisis? When the Red Shirts were leaving the ASEAN Summit venue in Pattaya, a group of people wearing black shirts began throwing stones at them. Who are they?

Indeed, the situation is becoming more and more unpredictable. The red shirts are able to move their forces from place to place. While the yellow shirts - the ones who closed the airport last Nov and Dec - have not yet re-appeared, the emergence of the blue shirts cannot bode well. It is even more troubling that on their very first appearance, the blue shirts provoked violence. “

http://visitchiangmaionline.blogspot.com/

Global Understanding Institute - Now On Twitter!

2009-04-17T00:34:00.000-07:00

You can now follow updates of the Global Understanding Institute on Twitter.

http://twitter.com/GUInstitute

A view from Southeast Asia - Focus on Thailand

2009-04-16T23:40:00.000-07:00

Thanks Peter for the timely update. As we can see, Thailand's troubles are far from over.

If the reports are true that Thaksin operatives, have during the past two years clandestinely funnelled small arms through Cambodia to his supporters, this does not bode well for the Land of Smiles.

If Twitter reports are true that Sondhi Limthongku, the founder of the PAD, was shot by a machine gun that sprayed over 100 bullets, this is a very dangerous turn of events. If the machine gun was in the hands of a Thaksin supporter, this is a serious escalation.

One person, whose view of Thailand I respect greatly, is my editor at Asia Times Online. Shawn Crispin has written a great article titles "Smoke, Mirrors and Lies' which can be viewed at http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD17Ae02.html.

I have made contact with a couple of people in Thailand but they are a little pre-occupied at present and hope to interact next week. Stay tuned.

If ever there was a time for a little understanding, in Thailand, now is the time. Let cool and sensible heads prevail.

Breaking News: Thailand: Sondhi Limthongku, Leader of Thai "Yellow Shirts" Shot, Wounded

2009-04-16T21:15:00.000-07:00

According to Bloomberg, Reuters, Associated Press, and other news reports, Sondhi Limthongku, the founder of the Thai political party People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), was shot in an apparent assassination attempt early on the morning of Friday, 17 April 2009, at around 5:45 am local time. Two or more gunmen shot out the tires of Sondhi’s car while it was stopped at a gas station, then shot and wounded Sondhi, his bodyguard and driver.

(Video of Sondi’s bullet-ridden car.)

Sondi’s political party, commonly referred to as the “Yellow Shirts,” was the group responsible for the 2005-2006 political crisis which resulted in the exile of the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. As the political crisis continued through 2008 to the present, PAD was also responsible for seizing the Bangkok Suvarnabhumi International Airport last year in a massive civil protest in November 2008, which resulted in the ouster of a government supportive of the exiled former Prime Minister.

Thaksin’s supporters, who are known as the National United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), are commonly referred to as the “Red Shirts.” They are the group responsible for the recent unrest in the streets which has resulted in several deaths and dozens of injuries. Their desire is to disband the Parliament and to call for a new election.

(Al Jazeera English Interview with Sean Boonpracong, spokesman for UDD, 12 April 2009)

The attack may increase tensions between the two political parties, and may spur additional levels of violence. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who is supported by Sondhi and the PAD, has imposed emergency rule in Bangkok this week as violence and protest continue to destablize life and commerce.

A view from Southeast Asia – Focus on Thailand

2009-04-16T02:07:00.000-07:00

The most recent event of note, here in Southeast Asia, is the recent turmoil in Thailand. This has been brewing for such a long time, since former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed in 2006. This is the same year that the Global Understanding Movement (GUM) was formed. We have no connection to Thaksin being deposed! Since then, a rainbow has graced the streets of Bangkok and other cities.

There have been the red-shirt supporters of Thaksin and the yellow-shirt supporters of those opposed to Thaksin and his allies. Then there have been the blue-shirt people wearing masks in Pattaya, who were there to supposedly protect the ASEAN meeting and show their opposition to the red shirts.

In the build up to the September 2006 military coup, which saw Thaksin removed from office, there had been pressure put on Thaksin and his policies by a group called the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD).

The PAD were not a political party, but a political pressure group formed by individuals concerned by the power wielded by Thaksin and the direction he was taking Thailand. PAD had some influential backers including those with links to the media, army and Royal Palace.

Supporters of PAD adopted the yellow shirt and made international headlines at the end of 2008, when television viewers around the world were shown images of the occupation of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi airport. The main distinguishing feature was the yellow shirts worn by the protesters, adopted by the protesters to show their allegiance to the king.

The Red Shirts managed to force the abandonment of the meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Pattaya, where several world leaders were scheduled to attend, by breaking into the venue. Some leaders were whisked away by helicopter, including Vietnam’s Prime Minister.

Thaksin, a multibillionaire media tycoon was elected in 2001 on a populist platform that promised universal healthcare and cash handouts to poor villagers. He was ousted from power in a bloodless army coup in 2006 and has been in exile abroad since being sentenced last October to two years in prison after being convicted of a corruption charge by Thailand's Supreme Court.

It’s reported that he’s been in negotiations to recover US$2.2 billion of family-owned assets that are now frozen in Thai banks. Those negotiations reportedly stalled because of the military's unwillingness to negotiate and the government's efforts to have Thaksin extradited to serve a two-year prison sentence for criminal conflict of interest charges.

Last Wednesday, Thailand's government announced it has revoked Thaksin’s passport with effect from April 12th because he stands accused of helping to stoke the recent anti-government hostility. Thaksin frequently addressed his followers by video or letter and called for his followers to engage in a revolution.

"Now that they have tanks on the street and the soldiers are coming out, so it is time for the people to come out for a revolution," Thaksin said. He later pushed for an end to violence. "We absolutely reject any form of violence, and reject the efforts of such enemies to tarnish what we stand for, to portray us as a mob, and to legitimize a crackdown on our people," he said in an open letter to the Thai people.

"I reiterate my call here to all my fellow Thais that our struggle for democracy must be non-violent. We must build the future we seek through the force of our ideas and our principles, and resist all the suppressive and aggressive attempts by the state and state-sponsored thugs to provoke us and incite us to violence," he said.

On April Fool’s Day, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said the government wanted to avoid violence, he offered to negotiate directly with the exiled Thaksin. "If talks can bring peace to the country, I am ready to meet him anywhere, because Thaksin is the only person that can end the siege."

Thasin responded, "Negotiation is out of the question. We are talking about the nation's future now."

After the Red Shirts withdrew from their blockade of the Prime Minister’s office, PM Abhisit Vejjajiva said, “The government does not view its success on this occasion as a victory over the protesters and should this be considered a victory, it is one for all Thai people."

Where now?

The recent events, following on from previous disruptions that were shown on TV screens around the world, have badly affected Thailand’s tourism industry, which accounts for about 12% of the country’s GDP.

Thaksin’s trusted aide and former minister in Thaksin’s government, Jakrapob Penkair, now leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) distinguished himself throughout the chaos and some say he could emerge as the opposition's next prime ministerial candidate. This is of course presuming that Thailand will continue to have elections.

Some observers say that this is only one battle in the war. Thai society is on-edge because nobody knows what will happen when the highly revered 81-year-old monarch, King Bhumibol eventually passes away. He is of ill health and many wonder how long he will live. When he does, many predict that pent-up frustrations will boil over.

A key-player is Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, whom Thaksin recently alleged together with his close associate General Surayud Chulanont, were among the masterminds behind the 2006 coup. This is a public accusation that the royal advisory body was acting outside of its legal mandate.

Some say that Thaksin's calls for a national uprising were no idle threat and that the protest group, could in the weeks ahead stir more trouble at the provincial level.

There are reports that Thaksin operatives had for the past two years clandestinely funnelled small arms through Cambodia to his supporters in various north-eastern provinces, where Thaksin's grassroots support runs deep. The arms had been moved and distributed with the help of former Communist Party of Thailand (CPT), an ideologically driven insurgent group active in the 1960s and 1970s that frequently criticized the royal family during its years of armed resistance. The group was disbanded in the 1980s, but some of its former student leaders were among Thaksin's top aides while he was in government.

It is without doubt that Thailand has not seen the last of public discontent; there are other battles to be fought before the war is won. When and where, nobody knows.

How about a little understanding?

The motto of the Global Understanding Institute is: Let us live together in harmony

The Global Understanding Institute seeks to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.

We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbours. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.

At this stage, I don’t know how the Global Understanding Institute can play a role in Thailand, but that is not going to stop us from trying to find out. I am actively reaching out to Thai friends, who represent all colours of the rainbow, to see what can be done.

We may not be successful, but at least we must try. If any readers of this post can assist in this worthy goal, please contact me. Together, let’s try to make a difference.

A view from Southeast Asia

2009-04-15T22:27:00.000-07:00

As you will read from http://www.globalunderstandinginstitute.org/aboutus.html, the Global Understanding Movement (GUM) was launched on Valentine's Day in 2006 by a group of like-minded individuals who wish to see a peaceful world, where children can be brought up in a safe and clean environment. Where children learn the difference between right and wrong; between hate and love; war and peace; moral and immoral behaviour; honesty and dishonest intentions; legal and illegal actions; ethical and unethical activities.

We seek to share understanding of the world around us through provision of global and local forums to exchange and express views for all interested and concerned citizens of the world. We owe it to each other to communicate in a polite, logical and rational manner that takes into consideration racial, religious and political sensitivities.

We seek to foster multicultural, pluralistic communities and to create peace between neighbors. This is based on the fundamental principles of human and humanitarian rights. Our goal is to aid any interested and concerned citizen of the world to understand others, to be understood themselves especially during times of crisis or conflict, and to bring peace and reconciliation where there are differences.

I have the honour of being the Founder of the Global Understanding Movement and together with some friends here in Hanoi, I began the movement by creating a forum for discussion in the wake of the outrage of the September 2005 Jyllands-Posten Muhammad cartoons controvery.

That was then and since that historic moment, the call has been taken up by Peter, who founded the Global Understanding Institute (GUI). Peter is working hard to register GUI as a Not for Profit organisation.

I am still in Hanoi, thankful for Peter's lead and hoping that more people will heed the call and join the movement. If you are interested in making the world that we live in, a better place for ourselves and our children, I urge you to be in contact with either Peter or myself.

I am going to contribute to this blog, from time to time, with a view from Southeast Asia. I was born in Hong Kong and have lived in Asia for more than 40 years. Therefore, I have a detailed perspective and can be considered an informed 'foreigner'.

Actually, I was once described as a 'reverse banana' (white on the outside and yellow on the inside). At the time, I thought it was somewhere between being cute and being an insult. Over the years, I have come to realise that it is quite true!

If you have a comment, agree or disagree with anything that I write, please feel free to contact me. I have written quite a lot about Vietnam (http://www.tckgroup.org/news.html). If you want to know more about me, feel free to visit http://www.tckgroup.org/team.html.

Until my next blog!
Karl

Financial Crisis, 27 Mar 2009: Weekly Wrapup

2009-03-27T23:53:00.000-07:00

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) roared back over the past week. Monday saw the Dow rise to 7,775. The rest of the week challenged that level of support, which seems to be holding strong. Wednesday saw the Dow drop to around the 7,550 level in intraday trading, but by the close that day the Dow was back to 7,749.

Thursday saw the highest level of support, closing at 7924.56. Friday’s close reflected some profit-taking for a generally good week for Wall Street. For the week, the Dow was up nearly 500 points.

DJIA
Weekly Closes
March 2009
06 March : 6,626.94
13 March : 7,223.98
20 March : 7,278.38
27 March : 7,776.18

The economic news was not uniformly good. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon warned that the global recession could lead to instability and social unrest around the world. Dominique Strauss-Kahn of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made the prospect for the world even more dire, citing millions dropping into poverty and the spectre of war breaking out.

The contraction of the world’s markets will take months to shake out across the globe. Yet for this week the U.S. economy rebounded dramatically, producing one of the best single-month rises in many years.

Financial Crisis, 20 Mar 2009: Weekly Wrapup

2009-03-20T13:39:00.000-07:00

The market’s corrosive slide has had a surprising bounce over the past weeks. In fact, had you picked the bottom of a few weeks ago, and you would have been part of the best 2-week run of the S&P500 since 1974.

A cursory look at the last week’s close to this week’s close alone would not show that. The week-to-week change in the Dow was a modestly buoyed 54-point rise: from 7,223.98 on the close of 13 March to today’s close of 20 March at 7,278.38. That modest rise does not tell the complete story of the volatile market for the week.

Just as one comparing the present day’s close to the close of 7,270.89 on 25 February would have left out the volatile weeks in between.

Wall Street began with a rocky Monday, which saw an up-and-down day nearly as high as 7,400 and then falling back to near 7200. The Dow then had strong positive days Tuesday and Wednesday, including cresting over the 7,550 mark on Wednesday, 18 March, before it eroded, giving back nearly all the gains over Thursday and Friday. Friday alone the Dow sank back 122.42 points or –1.65%. The NASDAQ and the S&P500 were likewise off –1.8% and –2% respectively.

The rise of the Dow from less than 6,500 on 9 March to the over 7,550 intraday high on Wednesday represented a 16.15% rise in value. In the short term, that is a very bright reversal of the downward plummet of stocks. However, the Dow is still down 17% on the year.

AIG Bonus Pay — Cherry on Top?

The week’s financial news was filled with the comments about the AIG bonus pay of $165 million to its financial products unit managers and the government’s demand that it be returned, either voluntarily or through a special tax that sailed through Congress. Tim Geithner and Senator Christopher Dodd were both hammered and taken to task for letting provisions for such bonuses slip into the Congressional bailout package in the first place.

The bonuses were simply the “cherry on top” of a terrible heart-stopping dessert for the American tax payer. All of it is relative mountains-and-molehills compared to the amount of money already plowed into AIG. $182.5 billion of public money was invested into the company. The company is going to be forced to repay the costs of the bonuses to the taxpayers, and, on top of that, the individual compensation will now face a specially-passed 90% tax. As will any bonus compensation made to individuals with incomes greater than $250,000 working at companies that received $5 billion or more in federal bailout funds.

A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...

The U.S. Federal deficit for 2009 is likely going to be $1.8 trillion, and another $1.4 trillion for 2010. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that it projects Federal deficits to accrue another $9.3 trillion in debts between 2009 and 2017. The national debt already stands over $11.0 trillion (specifically $11,039,686,130,898.10 as of 19 March 2009).

The Federal Reserve waded into the situation by offering to buy back $300 billion of Treasury bills, and to acquire $750 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities, and another $100 billion of their outstanding debts.

The gross U.S. debt had been as low as 58% of Gross Domestic Product in 2000. By the time of the end of the Bush administration, that had risen to about 75%. This year’s deficit alone will amount to 11.9% of GDP. The next year deficit will be an estimated 7.9%.

As the national debts pile on, so do the unemployment figures.

Job Losses Mount

The national average for unemployment in Febrary was measured 8.1% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, that rate may rise given new information out of leading industrial states like California and Ohio.

In California, the unemployment rate rose in February to 10.5%, the highest since April 1983. The 116,000 Californian jobs shed in February were the most lost in a single month in 19 years. Even the normally ebullient Silicon Valley has been hard hit. Last year, the unemployment rate was 5.1%. Today it is over 10%.

Likewise, Ohio faces a 9.4% unemployment rate, up from 8.4% in January — the worst situation since 1984. A year before it had stood at 5.9%. There were well over a half-million unemployed in Ohio in February 2009 — 566,000 — versus 349,000 unemployed a year ago in February 2008.

Global Setback

The U.S. economic recession is not a localized market issue. The International Monetary Fund acknowledged today that the entire global economy is now in a recession. The overall world’s production will slump 1% over 2009. Some economies will grow, but not as fast as they used to. Most will be in recession, and some be hit far harder than others. Japan, for instance is expecting a retraction of 5.8% in its GDP. Europe will be down 3.2% on average. The U.S. will have a relatively mild 2.6% retraction.

The question will be how fast the global economy can spring back after sustaining such precipitous losses. It also doesn’t mean that the problems will go away. Even if the market sprang back 16% over the past few weeks trading, there are still tremendous problems to be burdened, including the incurred national debts of various stimulus packages which were used to get the market moving again.

Sustainability is not done by simple means and gross averages. One cannot water a plant “on average” by drowning it one day after weeks of drought. Likewise, the instability of the present up-and-down market is not a sign of good health. It came at a price, which will be burdened for years and decades to come.

Financial Crisis, 13 Mar 2009: Dow 7,223.98, +53.92 (+0.75%)

2009-03-13T13:15:00.000-07:00

Today the market rose to close the week up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over 7,200. It was up 53.92 points on the day (+0.75%), ending at 7,223.98. For the week the Dow bounced back nearly 600 points over the prior week’s close of 6,626.94, recovering all the losses of the prior week and well over its close at 7,062.93 of two weeks ago. That is a rise of over 9% for the week, and a net rise for March of 2.28%.

Though this is welcome news, having a “two-week high” is nothing to really get complacent about. World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of all economic stimuli giving the world economy a “sugar high” speaking in London before the start of the G20 Summit.

Another bit of good news for the “buy American” crowd was that the U.S. trade deficit fell 9.7% to $36 billion for the month of January. This was down $2 billion compared with expectations. Adjusted for inflation, the real trade deficit was $41 billion. However, this news must be couched in the fact that all global trade is significantly down for the year. And in the long run, it could hurt many industries and international relationships that rely upon global trade for their success.

Many elements of the world economy are still shaking out after the downturn. European powers are considering protectionism. They are still in a great deal of insecurity over their eastern European debt obligations. Austria, which had extensive dealings with eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, now finds itself in a greatly insecure position.

China is trying to avoid having its trade deficit with the U.S. shrink, and is mulling over the security of U.S. Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched a Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, to protect a maritime surveillance ship, the Impeccable, off the Chinese coast. Along with the other issues, a prognosis of uncertainty is developing between the U.S., the present pre-eminent world power, and China, the developing powerhouse of Asia.

So while the news for the week is extremely good for the short term, there remains a great deal of uncertainty for the coming year ahead.

Financial Crisis, 12 Mar 2009: Dow 7,170.06, +239.66 (+3.46%)

2009-03-12T13:59:00.000-07:00

For the third straight day, the Dow Jones has ended higher. For the first time this month, the Dow closed above the 7,000 mark at 7,160.06.

A Dimmed Light Shines Brighter

General Electric, even though it was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s from AAA to AA+, jumped up $1.08 a share, up 12.72%, to $9.57. Investors had worried the downgrade would have been even worse.

If Not a Bottom, a Ledge

Meanwhile other aspects of the economy looked to be settling according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Retail spending in February, though still down slightly by 0.1%, was not as bad off as some forecast. Excluding automotive industry, it was actually up 0.7%. Overall retail spending in January, even including the automotive market, was actually up 1.8%. Unemployment remains a chief worry to the sustainability of the consumer spending rate.

The present week has been a welcome relief to a market that has seemed nearly in free-fall since October of last year. While prospects are still too murky to determine if this is a bottom to the crevasse, it is possibly at least a ledge that the market has landed safely upon.

Madoff Guilty

Today also marks the day that Bernie Madoff pled guilty to running a massive corrupt investment scheme that lost billions. “I operated a Ponzi scheme,” he told the U.S. District Court judge.

Go to G20

The leaders of the G20 are preparing to meet this week. The U.S. is proposing two major initiatives:

Push for a 2-year stimulus plan from all G20 nations equal to 2% of that nation’s GDP. The U.S. stimulus plan signed by President Obama is already equivalent to 3% of GDP.

Expand the IMF’s emergency fund for developing nations from $50 billion to $500 billion. The U.S. would contribute $100 billion to that fund and would seek other nations to underwrite the other $400 billion in necessary funds.

Many of the nations, however, are so strapped for cash and credit that they are not willing to make such a commitment.

Stay tuned for the news from the G20 summit later this month.

Financial Crisis, 11 Mar 2009: Dow 6,929.68, +3.19 (+0.05%)

2009-03-11T13:02:00.000-07:00

Today the market flirted with the 7,000 mark, crested it, and then spent the day in up-and-down trading. A late-in-the-afternoon rally almost brought the Dow to a close at the 7,000 mark, before a final tumble to close just 3 points higher than the previous day.

The intraday low was 6,867.55, meaning that the present support for this level is not firmly established. With the Dow plunging and rising hundreds of points per day, we will likely see a great deal of volatility yet to come.

The general trend for the day was a rapid peak in the AM, followed by a long steady decline. The reversal of that trend to the end-of-the-day rally somewhat mirrors the experience of 6 March 2009, when the market hit new recent lows.

The good news is that at 6,929.68, the Dow has recovered 7.6% from the low of 6,440.08. The unknown propositions are whether it will be able to remain above that point, and whether we have reached a valley, or a bump on the downward slope.

The airline industry, for one, sees that there may be some fair weather flying ahead. Delta, for one, saw “revenue trends stabilizing and not getting worse.” BofA-Merrill Lynch even upgraded JetBlue.

The issue about whether we’ve reached bottom requires everyone to consider “capitulation.” When some people simply abandon their positions in the market and take their losses. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch is not convinced we’ve reached a point of capitulation yet, and warns that to be too overly bullish at present may be mistaking a bear market rally for the real McCoy of a reversal of a down trend.

Financial Crisis, 10 Mar 2009: Dow 6,926.49, +379.44 (+5.8%)

2009-03-11T08:46:00.000-07:00

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) roared back up 379.44 points to close at 6,926.49, up 5.8% on the day. This raised the Dow to close to its February close, just above 7,000.

The good news in perspective shows how far the market has yet to recover. It was still down over 2,000 points on the calendar year 2009, which it began over 9,000. For the full twelve month proceeding period, it is far off the 13,000+ value it held back in May 2008. It is estimated by Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group LP that 40-45% of the world’s wealth has been destroyed by the downturn.

Yet for Wall Street and for those dependent on their portfolio, 10 March 2009 was a welcome relief.

The market cited the reason for the significant uptick was surprising news from Citibank, which internally shared a memo it had made a profit in the first two months of 2009. That message leaked to the market, and there was a definite bounce.

Other good news included Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, saying that the “uptick” rule, which curbs short selling, may be reimposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. While in prior days many free market philosophies would have seen this as government interference, in today’s market active involvement of watchdogs is seen as a healthy thing for all parties.

Zimbabwe: Once a Breadbasket, Now a Basketcase

2009-03-09T22:00:00.000-07:00

Back in 2002, Robert Mugabe ordered 2,000 white farmers to cease production on their farms. The Economist and The Atlantic began speaking about changing the nation from the Breadbasket of Africa to the Basketcase of the continent. The Atlantic’s December 2003 article is particularly damning, and the news has only grown grimmer since.

Just today, the World Health Organization released information that over 4,000 people have died of cholera, and and another 89,000 have been infected. The “good news” is that the number of diagnosed cases has dropped to 4,000 - 4,500 per week, down from a peak of 8,000 per week at the height of the crisis. However, the casualty figures are still likely to continue, especially in the hinterlands of the nation, where the death rate is far higher than in the urban areas due to lack of water treatment and medicine.

The GDP per capita for the nation was $2,400 in the year 2000. By 2004, it had fallen to $1,700 (as per the 2004 CIA World Factbook). In the latest reports, GDP per capita had plunged to $200. While we may rue our financial crisis, in Zimbabwe in 2008, inflation had driven prices up by 11.2 million percent.

All forms of social services are collapsing, from education to healthcare to basic security. Human rights are in shambles. Corruption is rampant. Arrests of dissidents and opposition figures, disappearances as well as torture, remain a daily factor of life.

A possible positive sign of economic change was mentioned today. Representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met with representatives of the Zimbabwe government to begin talks about restoring ties to the nation, which nearly had its membership in the IMF revoked in 2006.

However, whatever path Zimbabwe will take out of its current predicament will be a long road, simply trying to restore itself to a level of peace, productivity and prosperity it once knew years ago.

Financial Crisis, 9 Mar 2009: Dow 6,547.05, –79.89 (–1.21%)

2009-03-09T17:57:00.000-07:00

Another down day for the Dow. The index tried to rise in early trading to an intraday high over 6,700 right after 10:00 AM, then eroded all the rest of the day.

Today the Dow closed at 6,547.05, down nearly 80 points over the close of Friday, 6 March 2009, but still higher than Friday’s intraday low — which was below 6,500.

With the crisis occurring to the traditional Dow leaders, new names are starting to be elevated to the venerable list of top 30 “blue chip” stocks. Names being put forward in a report from Reuters include Cisco Systems and Google. Visa, with a market capitalization of $42 billion, has also been put forth as a contender to replace Citibank.

The market is already going through a shakeup. It it likely time to reflect the new reality of the market, and also give some thought to the shape of things to come.

Financial Crisis, 6 Mar 2009: Dow 6,626.94, +32.50 (+0.49%)

2009-03-06T13:08:00.000-08:00

The Tao of Dow

The week ended on a massive rally. An brisk morning start began Wall Street’s day 50 points higher than the prior evening’s close, and a quick surge led the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) to an early intraday high of 6,755.17.

However, the swift exuberance was extinguished shortly after 9:45 AM, and the rest of the day was a rocky decline, dipping below the 6,500 level before before 3:00 pm. The intraday low of 6,470.11 was hit right around 3:24 pm. Then, something sparked in the market, and the last half-hour was filled with a massive upsurge to close at 6,626.94. For the day, the Dow was up +32.50 (+0.49%).

It was the silver lining to a terrible week. Had the last half-hour not occurred, the market would have been down over 400 points on the week. As it was, it was “only” down a little over 300 points, from 6,932.23 Monday’s opening to Friday’s close at 6,626.94. This is net drop of 4.4% for the week as a whole. Except for one thing.

The prior week’s Friday close was 7,062.93. Given a Friday-to-Friday analysis, the week was down just shy of 436, or –6.17%.

The market had held up reasonably well for the first half of the week, cresting the 6,950 point twice in the week (Monday and Wednesday). Yet resistance collapsed on Thursday and Friday with the terrible economic news of more job losses and talks of insolvency for General Motors.

Unemployment Rate Crests 8.0%

As reported by Madlen Reed of the Associated Press, the U.S. government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics released figures that the economy has been shedding well over 600,000 jobs each month for the past quarter:

Month	Job Losses	Jobless %
December 2008	681,000	7.2%
January 2009	655,000	7.6%
February 2009	651,000	8.1%

One can read the Bureau’s report directly online. The release of the Employment Situation begins grimly:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to fall sharply in February (-651,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 7.6 to 8.1 percent… Payroll employment has declined by 2.6 million in the past 4 months. In February, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all major industry sectors…

The number of unemployed persons increased by 851,000 to 12.5 million in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 8.1 percent. Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by about 5.0 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 3.3 percentage points.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs increased by 716,000 to 7.7 million in February. This measure has grown by 3.8 million in the last 12 months.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 270,000 to 2.9 million in February. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed was up by 1.6 million.

As major corporations continue to have unstaunched losses, and as Wall Street melts, the possibility is for small corporations and individuals to move into market segments to compete — if, and this is a big if — they are able to free their own capital or to raise funds from other sources, and if market conditions and regulations allow them to enter business unfettered.

Otherwise, key opportunities will pass for small businesses and individuals too, causing markets to shut down completely.

The stimulus bill, ideally, is geared to address joblessness immediately. Without a change in the current economy, joblessness will rise to well over 10-12% in the span of the next quarter or two, causing even more chaos.

Rent and Torn

While everyone is focused presently upon the home buyers fiasco, increasing unemployment can also lead to massive disruptions to renters also. Property management companies are being hit as people have to leave their present rentals as jobs dry up, or they may decide to room together to save rent, Many newly completed apartment complexes or recently purchased properties are finding they are already underwater and priced out of the present market.

The UK is seeing a rapid decline in rental values over the past year, upwards of 11.7% in areas around London, and 14.3% around Manchester, as the economy tightens and more home owners put unsold properties out for let.

New York City is likewise seeing a decline in rentals, too. Given various incentives being offered by landlords, rates have been calculated to have dropped upwards of 10-15%, as reported by the New York Times on 30 January 2009.

The word “recession” has been used so far, though the use of the term “depression” is now starting to be considered, such as by this article in the Salt Lake Tribune. We would have to reach an unemployment rate of 10% and be in this crisis for three years before it formally qualifies according to technical definitions. The old joke cited by Amity Shlaes indicates the key difference: “A recession is when you lose your job. A depression is when I lose mine.”

Yet for many in the United States today, the symptoms already clearly indicate the condition. Such patients cannot afford to wait for the formal diagnosis. And for millions this is not an easy joke to laugh off.

Financial Crisis, 5 Mar 2009: Dow 6,594.44, -281.40 (-4.09%)

2009-03-05T19:34:00.000-08:00

Wednesday, 4 March 2005 was an up-day in the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose in intraday trading nearly to the 7,000 level. All of that was erased on 5 March, opening below 6,800, and plunging all day long in a frenetic sell-off. The Dow closed lower than 6,600, establishing a new low that hasn’t been seen since 1997.

The financial system, indeed the "civilized" world, is undergoing a massive unwinding of a multi-decade debt orgy. The process is painful and shows no signs of letting up anytime soon, even as many on Wall Street continue to try and pick the bottom, including erstwhile bears like Doug Kass and Steve Leuthold .
— Aaron Task, TechTicker, Finance.Yahoo.com

Key companies that comprise the Dow were hammered. Citibank (C) dipped momentarily below $1 a share, closing at $1.02, with an Earnings Per Share over the past year of –3.88. It was down –9.73% on the day. General Motors (GM) closed at $1.86, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of –38.74, making holding onto the shares practically toxic. It plummeted –15.45%.

The technical analysis is important to listen to. There is no predictive bottom.

The Russell 2000 continues to get destroyed here… There’s clearly nothing at all to suggest anything bullish on any of these charts on any of these time frames…

Don’t get locked into any one belief. Especially when you look at every objective fact on every single one of these time frames that just continues to scream “bear market.”

There’s nothing fundamental here to suggest a turnaround. It’s, you know, it’s, it’s basically as I said, a bad bet.
– Brian Shannon, AlphaTrends.net.

Tonight, many are wondering where the bottom may be. 6,500? 6,000? 5,000? Even predictions of 4,000 are starting to be heard. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to predict what will happen when we hit any fathomable bottom. By then, what is certain is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will likely need to reconsider what the top 20 “blue chip” stocks are in the modern economy. The world will likely be reeling for the better part of the next decade from the destruction of value measured in the trillions.

This is not to act as a prophet of doom or pray for the worst. The worst is happening, regardless of our collective desires. Partially because of our unsustainable collective desires of the past.

Financial Crisis, 2 Mar 2009: Dow 6763.29, -299 (-4.26%)

2009-03-03T07:16:00.000-08:00

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was hammered for another drop of 299 points, or 4.26% of its value.

I’ll leave commentary and analysis to the folks at Minyanville: Market Still in the Maw of the Bear.

Financial Crisis, 25 Feb 2009: Dow 7,062.93, -119.15 (-1.66%)

2009-02-27T15:38:00.000-08:00

Today began and ended badly, with a bit of modest hope in the middle.

At the opening bell, the Dow opened far below the close of the prior day, at 7,099.49. Within the first hour, it had sunk to an intraday low of 7,033.62. The rest of the morning was an uphill struggle. By noon the index climbed to 7,180, but met resistance which it was unable to overcome.

The rest of the afternoon was filled with Wall Street digesting the most recent proposal for the U.S. government to salvage ailing Citicorp, along with news of the worst annualized quarterly dip in GDP for the past 25 years: a drop of 6.2% in the fourth quarter of 2008.

During the afternoon, the market eroded. From the intraday high of 7,195.46, prices tumbled first after the 2:00 pm bell, then after the 3:00 pm bell, and finally, in the minutes before the closing 4:00 pm bell, until the market closed at 7,062.62, thus setting a new annual low.

In all, the U.S. market has already lost 18%-20% of its value since the beginning of the year.

Market Index Performance
27 February 2009

DJIA
Day: -119.15, –1.66%
Week: –4.1%
February: 11.7%
Year-to-Date: –19.5%

S&P500
Day:
Week: –4.5%
February: 11%
Year-to-Date: –18.6%

NASDAQ Composite Index (COMPX)
Day: –13.63; –0.98%
Week: –4.4%
February: 6.7%
Year-to-Date: –12.6%

Wilshire 5000
Day: –145.50, –1.91% (7,473.97)
Week: –4.96% (from 7,863.89)
February: –10.42% (from 8,343.79)
Year-to-Date: –20.2% (from 9,364.50)

Sources:

William Hennelly, TheStreet.com
finance.yahoo.com;
www.wilshire.com/Indexes/Broad/Wilshire5000

Financial Crisis, 25 Feb 2009: Dow 7,181.78, -88.81 (-1.22%)

2009-02-26T14:44:00.000-08:00

Once again the Dow closed down below 7,200. It was up for most of the day, peaking in the morning hours above 7,400 (7,204.31 to be precise), before cascading down the rest of the day.

This is the fourth day this week the Dow sunk below 7,200, and the second day this week it closed below that point. Based on the trend established after declining from the highs over 9,000 around early January, the Dow seems poised to fall to 7,000.

Tomorrow may prove a crucial test of support above that number.

Palestinians Seek $2.8 Billion for Reconstruction

2009-02-26T08:20:00.000-08:00

On 23 February 2009, the U.S. pledged $900 million in aid to rebuild Gaza. Pooled with other top contributors, including Saudi Arabia ($1 billion) and Qatar ($250 million), would bring pledged support to the coastal strip territory to $2.15 billion.

Yet today it was announced the Palestinians are now seeking a total of $2.8 billion in foreign aid for reconstruction. This assessment is up by nearly 50% from initial estimated damages of $1.9 billion.

Because certain international donors will not deal with Hamas directly, it is likely that aid may be channeled through the Fatah government instead. Thus, the aid donations are being used as a “carrot” to get the two different Palestinian regimes cooperating with each other.

The strategy seems to be succeeding. At least initially. Hamas and Fatah are working to repair rifts between each other. Mutual recriminations are, for now, mostly on hold. Fatah made a goodwill gesture by freeing 42 Hamas loyalists. In response, Hamas leader Izzat Rashaq threatened that Fatah should release more or, “it will turn into a bomb that would explode in the face of Palestinian-Palestinian talks.”

The distrust still runs deep and dangerous. Fatah accuses Hamas of killing and imprisoning dozens of its loyalists during the battles with Israel. Hamas accuses Fatah of acting as spies, feeding Israel information about Hamas positions during the war. Yet for now, even media attacks against each other have been called off.

Meetings today between Fatah and Hamas will determine whether there will be a unity government formed to deal with the crisis.

Request for Proposals: Global Model: Economic System

2009-02-25T18:16:00.000-08:00

Global Model: Economic System
Draft 0.1
Author: Peter Corless
Date: 25 February 2009
Time: 7:07 PM Pacific Standard Time
Location: Cupertino, California

The current global crisis will require a very large, consistently-updated model of the global economy to determine the relative health and changing dynamics of geographic areas as well as markets, governments, businesses, and economic sectors.

The Global Understanding Institute has a long-term vision to building a Global Model: a simulation system of the Earth, including various natural and human systems, including present states, changes and rates of change, stochastic events, trends and probable equilibrium outcomes.

Different elements of natural and human systems will need to be put into such a global model, including human demographic, social, political and economic activities. Because of the present global economic crisis, this latter model is a critical priority.

The Global Understanding Institute would wish to see proposals for what data should comprise a relatively useful and accurate global model of economic activities.

Proposals should include reliable, technically accurate and confirmable public and private data sources, whether from markets, governments, NGOs, or analysts. A bias for the model should be in the free, public source of data. Private, proprietary data sources would be inappropriate for a public benefit educational institute, unless such data was provided at a no-cost basis, both license-free and royalty-free.

Methods to maintain the model would need to detail the relative rate of data updates (intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, annually, or at some other period basis, or done on a special irregular basis), the method to compare, confirm, and/or validate the data via other sources or statistical methods.

The model should be in an emergent state and tolerate growth of its analysis. Increasingly complex mathematics may be used over time. For instance, replacing initial simple arithmetic models with algebraic formulae, trigonometry, or calculus. Both standard and special ad hoc data importation methods should be allowed for new data entry, importation of new data feeds, new methods of analysis, and generally encourage the system to watch for emerging trends and increasingly sophisticated systems of analysis as the model grows and matures.

Data tracked by the system should also enable rating systems for reliability or confidence of data. For instance, a national government or U.N. source backed by strong research and clear methodology may have a higher data reliability than a subjective consumer or business confidence survey conducted over a small statistical sampling.

Data contention should not be precluded by the model. Different government sources may conflict with other government estimates. Revisions of data may also need to be tracked, such as initial estimates and revised, final figures.

The overall model should allow for both actual state analysis and hypothetical projected models based on variations in date and data into past, alternate present, or projected future scenarios. Systems for “scenario modelling” should allow data users to relatively easily grab economic models based on nations, regions, market segments, and date ranges.

Data should be able to be modelled at international and national levels, yet subnational models, such as by state, province, county, metropolitan area, postal code, or other internal subnational districting are highly encouraged and recommended for mature, industrialized nations.

Goal

The goal is for such a model to be able to show to a typical layperson any nation or region in the world, to identify relative economic conditions of any place on the globe. A user should be able to tell relative, general, and absolute, specific elements of economic prosperity and stability, crises and concerns, employer and employee information, macroeconomic and key microeconomic data.

While any layperson should have benefit of such a model, professional economists and researchers around the would should have a common global database for shared research-quality data.

Availability of such a model should enable governments, businesses and any member of the general public to better understand and respond to local and global economic situations. Hypothetical modelling tools should allow healthy competition between proponents of different economic theories to project alternative solutions to key global and regional economic crises and conflicts.

Submissions

All submissions must be made on a voluntary, non-proprietary basis. Submissions should include all appropriate elements, including theoretical and applied mathematical models, descriptions of pragmatic purposes and utility value of various data elements, as well as sections on the lifecycle of data management: population, upkeep, revision, deprecation, etc.

Contacting Us

All contact by bona fide parties interested in responding to the RFP or other participation in the Global Model should be sent to Peter Corless, petercorless@mac.com, 650-906-3134 (mobile).

What we need:

Request For Proposal submissions.
Request for Information (RFI), including more detailed requirements and clarifications.
Volunteers interested in participating in a pilot project (please send a letter of interest, along with their resume or CV). Economists, financial sector analysts, statisticians, and IT professionals with database and data modelling background are most highly desired.
Potential fiscal sponsors for grants and funding, or a larger, more-established stakeholder willing to act as host or incubator for the project.
Potential partners interested in pooling or donating data, researchers, or IT resources.
Liaisons with international, governmental, or professional groups or NGO stakeholders who wish the data to conform to rigors of control or formal standards.

Please pass along this idea to any and all appropriate and likely interested parties. For the good of the world, and on behalf of all of those who would like to see us rise out of our present global systemic crises, thank you!

-Peter Corless.
petercorless@mac.com
650-906-3134 (mobile)

Financial Crisis, 25 Feb 2009: Dow 7,270.89, -80 (-1.09%)

2009-02-25T15:23:00.000-08:00

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sagged again the day after President Barack Obama made his first speech to a joint session of Congress.

The index closed at 7,270.89, down 80.05, off -1.09%. In intraday trading, the index had early in the day slammed down to 7,156.68, and spent the rest of the day trying to rise. Just before 3:30 pm New York time, the Dow hit 7,404.94 for the intraday high. In the last minutes of the day, it suddenly backslid 130 points.

Each trading day during this past week, the market has been pressing at a “floor” of 7,200, searching for support. If the Dow can establish this as a firm basis of trading is uncertain. It has broken through that floor each day, closing below it on Monday. It recovered and closed above the 7,200 mark in the past two days.

For most of December, the index had a “floor” of about 8,500. It briefly peaked at over 9,000 in the first week of January. After that, the lastest phase of hemorrhaging began.

From 20 January to 9 February, the “floor” sunk to around 8,000. Since 10 February, the index dropped further, breaking the 8,000 mark. It hovered around 7,500 on 17-18 February, then bounced like a half-inflated ball down to the range of 7,100 - 7,400.

It is still too early to tell how the market will shift next. Some commodity prices, like gold, have stabilized or drifted downwards, while others are heading up again, like oil.

As technical analysis fails in the face of raw numbers and statistics, it is possible for rhetoric, public goodwill and trust, as well as firm and necessary action, to turn the tide of events. Therefore, today’s analysis will leave the new U.S. President with the last word:

If we come together and lift this nation from the depths of this crisis; if we put our people back to work and restart the engine of our prosperity; if we confront without fear the challenges of our time and summon that enduring spirit of an America that does not quit, then someday years from now our children can tell their children that this was the time when we performed, in the words that are carved into this very chamber, “something worthy to be remembered.”
— President Barack Obama

The Spectacular, Sudden Crash of the Global Economy

2009-02-24T21:15:00.000-08:00

A good analysis of how bad things are getting.

Financial Crisis, 24 Feb 2009: Dow 7,350.94, +236 (+3.32%)

2009-02-24T15:58:00.000-08:00

Today Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief and bounced back up nearly all losses it suffered the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) index ended the day at 7,350.94, up 236.16, or +3.32%.

Market bottoms will be tested in the next weeks. If the Dow can hold at this level, then it may avoid settling down below 7,000. But if the gains of this day are eroded by futher bad news, then additional erosion or a precipitous drop can follow.

Today the question was raised whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average index should be overhauled. Periodically the Dow’s select list of stocks are modified. Old titans of industry are replaced by tested up-and-comers to the blue chip category. Certainly General Motors (GM) and Citigroup (C) are highly challenged stocks.

This sort of reshuffling at the top indicates major market changes in basic valuation. Analysts looking for more cross-market performance levels prefer to look at the broader Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 or the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000. The former gives more of a “market leadership” view, while the latter is the near equivalent of the entire valuation of the entire U.S. stock market, comprising all the valuations of the companies within the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ and the American Stock Exchange.

A Somewhat Poorer Standard & Poor’s 500

The S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) closed at 743.33 on 23 Febuary, and bounced back up 29.81 (+4.01%) to 773.14 on 24 Febuary. It is down 48.39% from its 52-week high of 1,440.24.

On 9 October 2007, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 1,565.15. Since then, the value of the index has slid 52.51%.

Wilting Wilshire

The Wilshire 5000 (^DWC) currently stands at 7,833.85. It had a one day bump up +308.23 (+4.1%) from its near-yearly low yesterday.

The Wilshire 5000 index is down 45.69% from the 52-week high of 14,423.75, which it hit on 16 May 2008. It is down 50.44% from the index’s all-time high of 15,806.69 which it hit on 9 Oct 2007 (the same day the S&P500 had its all-time peak).

50% in 500 Days

In the past 504 days, since 9 October 2007, the U.S. stock market has lost more than 50% of its value. It was the historical capital market equivalent of “gone in 60 seconds.” Or, at least, half-gone.

At first, the trend was not greatly noticeable. After hitting its all-time high on 9 October 2007, the value of the market eroded slightly over most of the subsequent year. Over 11 subsequent months, specifically the following 329 calendar days, the market flitted downward slowly.

By 2 September 2008, the S&P 500 was holding up at 1,277.58. While that was already down 18.37%, this was not specifically alarming. The Wilshire 5000 likewise had drifted down to 13,064.50, off 17.35% from its high. These losses were gradual over the year. The oncoming crisis was already being predicted, and increasingly made a focus of speculation and analysis.

It was only after this point that the market begin its precipitous slide. The steepest drop came in the first weeks of October. The worst was 20 November 2008, when the S&P 500 hit 752.44, and the Wilshire 5000 bottomed out at 7,471.44.

Precarious Point

The present lows this week are a second testing of the lows hit on 20 November 2008. If the market continues to settle out here, any “third test” of the low may break through a technical resistance point, and the entire market can plummet to another lower basis. How far would it plunge? 500? 1,000? 1,500? This is why it is called speculation. Different models, based on different assumptions, can produce different results.

All the economy needs is another stochastic shock, more disappointing news, or the shift of another international indicator, and it can precariously tumble once more. Yet given the strong positive bounce between the 23rd to the 24th of February, it seems possible that the present resistence level of the market seems strong. We may have reached a bottom for now.

Let’s see what a week’s more data shows.