The market’s corrosive slide has had a surprising bounce over the past weeks. In fact, had you picked the bottom of a few weeks ago, and you would have been part of the best 2-week run of the S&P500 since 1974.
A cursory look at the last week’s close to this week’s close alone would not show that. The week-to-week change in the Dow was a modestly buoyed 54-point rise: from 7,223.98 on the close of 13 March to today’s close of 20 March at 7,278.38. That modest rise does not tell the complete story of the volatile market for the week.
Just as one comparing the present day’s close to the close of 7,270.89 on 25 February would have left out the volatile weeks in between.
Wall Street began with a rocky Monday, which saw an up-and-down day nearly as high as 7,400 and then falling back to near 7200. The Dow then had strong positive days Tuesday and Wednesday, including cresting over the 7,550 mark on Wednesday, 18 March, before it eroded, giving back nearly all the gains over Thursday and Friday. Friday alone the Dow sank back 122.42 points or –1.65%. The NASDAQ and the S&P500 were likewise off –1.8% and –2% respectively.
The rise of the Dow from less than 6,500 on 9 March to the over 7,550 intraday high on Wednesday represented a 16.15% rise in value. In the short term, that is a very bright reversal of the downward plummet of stocks. However, the Dow is still down 17% on the year.
AIG Bonus Pay — Cherry on Top?
The week’s financial news was filled with the comments about the AIG bonus pay of $165 million to its financial products unit managers and the government’s demand that it be returned, either voluntarily or through a special tax that sailed through Congress. Tim Geithner and Senator Christopher Dodd were both hammered and taken to task for letting provisions for such bonuses slip into the Congressional bailout package in the first place.
The bonuses were simply the “cherry on top” of a terrible heart-stopping dessert for the American tax payer. All of it is relative mountains-and-molehills compared to the amount of money already plowed into AIG. $182.5 billion of public money was invested into the company. The company is going to be forced to repay the costs of the bonuses to the taxpayers, and, on top of that, the individual compensation will now face a specially-passed 90% tax. As will any bonus compensation made to individuals with incomes greater than $250,000 working at companies that received $5 billion or more in federal bailout funds.
A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...
The U.S. Federal deficit for 2009 is likely going to be $1.8 trillion, and another $1.4 trillion for 2010. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that it projects Federal deficits to accrue another $9.3 trillion in debts between 2009 and 2017. The national debt already stands over $11.0 trillion (specifically $11,039,686,130,898.10 as of 19 March 2009).
The Federal Reserve waded into the situation by offering to buy back $300 billion of Treasury bills, and to acquire $750 billion of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities, and another $100 billion of their outstanding debts.
The gross U.S. debt had been as low as 58% of Gross Domestic Product in 2000. By the time of the end of the Bush administration, that had risen to about 75%. This year’s deficit alone will amount to 11.9% of GDP. The next year deficit will be an estimated 7.9%.
As the national debts pile on, so do the unemployment figures.
Job Losses Mount
The national average for unemployment in Febrary was measured 8.1% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, that rate may rise given new information out of leading industrial states like California and Ohio.
In California, the unemployment rate rose in February to 10.5%, the highest since April 1983. The 116,000 Californian jobs shed in February were the most lost in a single month in 19 years. Even the normally ebullient Silicon Valley has been hard hit. Last year, the unemployment rate was 5.1%. Today it is over 10%.
Likewise, Ohio faces a 9.4% unemployment rate, up from 8.4% in January — the worst situation since 1984. A year before it had stood at 5.9%. There were well over a half-million unemployed in Ohio in February 2009 — 566,000 — versus 349,000 unemployed a year ago in February 2008.
Global Setback
The U.S. economic recession is not a localized market issue. The International Monetary Fund acknowledged today that the entire global economy is now in a recession. The overall world’s production will slump 1% over 2009. Some economies will grow, but not as fast as they used to. Most will be in recession, and some be hit far harder than others. Japan, for instance is expecting a retraction of 5.8% in its GDP. Europe will be down 3.2% on average. The U.S. will have a relatively mild 2.6% retraction.
The question will be how fast the global economy can spring back after sustaining such precipitous losses. It also doesn’t mean that the problems will go away. Even if the market sprang back 16% over the past few weeks trading, there are still tremendous problems to be burdened, including the incurred national debts of various stimulus packages which were used to get the market moving again.
Sustainability is not done by simple means and gross averages. One cannot water a plant “on average” by drowning it one day after weeks of drought. Likewise, the instability of the present up-and-down market is not a sign of good health. It came at a price, which will be burdened for years and decades to come.
Showing posts with label global. Show all posts
Showing posts with label global. Show all posts
Friday, March 20, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
Financial Crisis, 13 Mar 2009: Dow 7,223.98, +53.92 (+0.75%)
Today the market rose to close the week up, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over 7,200. It was up 53.92 points on the day (+0.75%), ending at 7,223.98. For the week the Dow bounced back nearly 600 points over the prior week’s close of 6,626.94, recovering all the losses of the prior week and well over its close at 7,062.93 of two weeks ago. That is a rise of over 9% for the week, and a net rise for March of 2.28%.
Though this is welcome news, having a “two-week high” is nothing to really get complacent about. World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of all economic stimuli giving the world economy a “sugar high” speaking in London before the start of the G20 Summit.
Another bit of good news for the “buy American” crowd was that the U.S. trade deficit fell 9.7% to $36 billion for the month of January. This was down $2 billion compared with expectations. Adjusted for inflation, the real trade deficit was $41 billion. However, this news must be couched in the fact that all global trade is significantly down for the year. And in the long run, it could hurt many industries and international relationships that rely upon global trade for their success.
Many elements of the world economy are still shaking out after the downturn. European powers are considering protectionism. They are still in a great deal of insecurity over their eastern European debt obligations. Austria, which had extensive dealings with eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, now finds itself in a greatly insecure position.
China is trying to avoid having its trade deficit with the U.S. shrink, and is mulling over the security of U.S. Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched a Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, to protect a maritime surveillance ship, the Impeccable, off the Chinese coast. Along with the other issues, a prognosis of uncertainty is developing between the U.S., the present pre-eminent world power, and China, the developing powerhouse of Asia.
So while the news for the week is extremely good for the short term, there remains a great deal of uncertainty for the coming year ahead.
Though this is welcome news, having a “two-week high” is nothing to really get complacent about. World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned of all economic stimuli giving the world economy a “sugar high” speaking in London before the start of the G20 Summit.
Another bit of good news for the “buy American” crowd was that the U.S. trade deficit fell 9.7% to $36 billion for the month of January. This was down $2 billion compared with expectations. Adjusted for inflation, the real trade deficit was $41 billion. However, this news must be couched in the fact that all global trade is significantly down for the year. And in the long run, it could hurt many industries and international relationships that rely upon global trade for their success.
Many elements of the world economy are still shaking out after the downturn. European powers are considering protectionism. They are still in a great deal of insecurity over their eastern European debt obligations. Austria, which had extensive dealings with eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain, now finds itself in a greatly insecure position.
China is trying to avoid having its trade deficit with the U.S. shrink, and is mulling over the security of U.S. Treasury bonds. Meanwhile, the U.S. has dispatched a Navy destroyer, the USS Chung-Hoon, to protect a maritime surveillance ship, the Impeccable, off the Chinese coast. Along with the other issues, a prognosis of uncertainty is developing between the U.S., the present pre-eminent world power, and China, the developing powerhouse of Asia.
So while the news for the week is extremely good for the short term, there remains a great deal of uncertainty for the coming year ahead.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Financial Crisis, 12 Mar 2009: Dow 7,170.06, +239.66 (+3.46%)
For the third straight day, the Dow Jones has ended higher. For the first time this month, the Dow closed above the 7,000 mark at 7,160.06.
A Dimmed Light Shines Brighter
General Electric, even though it was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s from AAA to AA+, jumped up $1.08 a share, up 12.72%, to $9.57. Investors had worried the downgrade would have been even worse.
If Not a Bottom, a Ledge
Meanwhile other aspects of the economy looked to be settling according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Retail spending in February, though still down slightly by 0.1%, was not as bad off as some forecast. Excluding automotive industry, it was actually up 0.7%. Overall retail spending in January, even including the automotive market, was actually up 1.8%. Unemployment remains a chief worry to the sustainability of the consumer spending rate.
The present week has been a welcome relief to a market that has seemed nearly in free-fall since October of last year. While prospects are still too murky to determine if this is a bottom to the crevasse, it is possibly at least a ledge that the market has landed safely upon.
Madoff Guilty
Today also marks the day that Bernie Madoff pled guilty to running a massive corrupt investment scheme that lost billions. “I operated a Ponzi scheme,” he told the U.S. District Court judge.
Go to G20
The leaders of the G20 are preparing to meet this week. The U.S. is proposing two major initiatives:
Stay tuned for the news from the G20 summit later this month.
A Dimmed Light Shines Brighter
General Electric, even though it was downgraded by Standard & Poor’s from AAA to AA+, jumped up $1.08 a share, up 12.72%, to $9.57. Investors had worried the downgrade would have been even worse.
If Not a Bottom, a Ledge
Meanwhile other aspects of the economy looked to be settling according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Retail spending in February, though still down slightly by 0.1%, was not as bad off as some forecast. Excluding automotive industry, it was actually up 0.7%. Overall retail spending in January, even including the automotive market, was actually up 1.8%. Unemployment remains a chief worry to the sustainability of the consumer spending rate.
The present week has been a welcome relief to a market that has seemed nearly in free-fall since October of last year. While prospects are still too murky to determine if this is a bottom to the crevasse, it is possibly at least a ledge that the market has landed safely upon.
Madoff Guilty
Today also marks the day that Bernie Madoff pled guilty to running a massive corrupt investment scheme that lost billions. “I operated a Ponzi scheme,” he told the U.S. District Court judge.
Go to G20
The leaders of the G20 are preparing to meet this week. The U.S. is proposing two major initiatives:
- Push for a 2-year stimulus plan from all G20 nations equal to 2% of that nation’s GDP. The U.S. stimulus plan signed by President Obama is already equivalent to 3% of GDP.
- Expand the IMF’s emergency fund for developing nations from $50 billion to $500 billion. The U.S. would contribute $100 billion to that fund and would seek other nations to underwrite the other $400 billion in necessary funds.
Stay tuned for the news from the G20 summit later this month.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Financial Crisis, 11 Mar 2009: Dow 6,929.68, +3.19 (+0.05%)
Today the market flirted with the 7,000 mark, crested it, and then spent the day in up-and-down trading. A late-in-the-afternoon rally almost brought the Dow to a close at the 7,000 mark, before a final tumble to close just 3 points higher than the previous day.
The intraday low was 6,867.55, meaning that the present support for this level is not firmly established. With the Dow plunging and rising hundreds of points per day, we will likely see a great deal of volatility yet to come.
The general trend for the day was a rapid peak in the AM, followed by a long steady decline. The reversal of that trend to the end-of-the-day rally somewhat mirrors the experience of 6 March 2009, when the market hit new recent lows.
The good news is that at 6,929.68, the Dow has recovered 7.6% from the low of 6,440.08. The unknown propositions are whether it will be able to remain above that point, and whether we have reached a valley, or a bump on the downward slope.
The airline industry, for one, sees that there may be some fair weather flying ahead. Delta, for one, saw “revenue trends stabilizing and not getting worse.” BofA-Merrill Lynch even upgraded JetBlue.
The issue about whether we’ve reached bottom requires everyone to consider “capitulation.” When some people simply abandon their positions in the market and take their losses. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch is not convinced we’ve reached a point of capitulation yet, and warns that to be too overly bullish at present may be mistaking a bear market rally for the real McCoy of a reversal of a down trend.
The intraday low was 6,867.55, meaning that the present support for this level is not firmly established. With the Dow plunging and rising hundreds of points per day, we will likely see a great deal of volatility yet to come.
The general trend for the day was a rapid peak in the AM, followed by a long steady decline. The reversal of that trend to the end-of-the-day rally somewhat mirrors the experience of 6 March 2009, when the market hit new recent lows.
The good news is that at 6,929.68, the Dow has recovered 7.6% from the low of 6,440.08. The unknown propositions are whether it will be able to remain above that point, and whether we have reached a valley, or a bump on the downward slope.
The airline industry, for one, sees that there may be some fair weather flying ahead. Delta, for one, saw “revenue trends stabilizing and not getting worse.” BofA-Merrill Lynch even upgraded JetBlue.
The issue about whether we’ve reached bottom requires everyone to consider “capitulation.” When some people simply abandon their positions in the market and take their losses. Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch is not convinced we’ve reached a point of capitulation yet, and warns that to be too overly bullish at present may be mistaking a bear market rally for the real McCoy of a reversal of a down trend.
Financial Crisis, 10 Mar 2009: Dow 6,926.49, +379.44 (+5.8%)
Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) roared back up 379.44 points to close at 6,926.49, up 5.8% on the day. This raised the Dow to close to its February close, just above 7,000.
The good news in perspective shows how far the market has yet to recover. It was still down over 2,000 points on the calendar year 2009, which it began over 9,000. For the full twelve month proceeding period, it is far off the 13,000+ value it held back in May 2008. It is estimated by Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group LP that 40-45% of the world’s wealth has been destroyed by the downturn.
Yet for Wall Street and for those dependent on their portfolio, 10 March 2009 was a welcome relief.
The market cited the reason for the significant uptick was surprising news from Citibank, which internally shared a memo it had made a profit in the first two months of 2009. That message leaked to the market, and there was a definite bounce.
Other good news included Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, saying that the “uptick” rule, which curbs short selling, may be reimposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. While in prior days many free market philosophies would have seen this as government interference, in today’s market active involvement of watchdogs is seen as a healthy thing for all parties.
The good news in perspective shows how far the market has yet to recover. It was still down over 2,000 points on the calendar year 2009, which it began over 9,000. For the full twelve month proceeding period, it is far off the 13,000+ value it held back in May 2008. It is estimated by Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone Group LP that 40-45% of the world’s wealth has been destroyed by the downturn.
Yet for Wall Street and for those dependent on their portfolio, 10 March 2009 was a welcome relief.
The market cited the reason for the significant uptick was surprising news from Citibank, which internally shared a memo it had made a profit in the first two months of 2009. That message leaked to the market, and there was a definite bounce.
Other good news included Rep. Barney Frank, Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, saying that the “uptick” rule, which curbs short selling, may be reimposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission. While in prior days many free market philosophies would have seen this as government interference, in today’s market active involvement of watchdogs is seen as a healthy thing for all parties.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Financial Crisis, 24 Feb 2009: Worldwide Slump, Latvia Collapses
Mountain View, CA (Global Understanding)
Markets around the world are reeling at the pressures brought about by the global economic crisis. It cuts across all sectors: financial, credit, manufacturing, exports, energy, transportation, tech. There are few safe haven economies, few stocks, few sectors. According to reports from the Davos conference, the global crisis in the past five tumultuous quarters has already destroyed 40% of the world’s wealth.
Latvia Collapses, Eastern Europe Teeters
In addition, governments are continuing to collapse due to the strain of recession. First there was Iceland. Now the east of Europe braces itself. Latvia is in the throws of a 12% retraction of its economy. Under intense domestic pressure, including violent protests in January, Latvia’s Prime Minister and government resigned on Monday (22 Feb 2009). The IMF plan to rescue its economy is at risk of faltering. Swedish banks, who hold much of Latvia’s debt obligations, are worried over default.
All of Eastern Europe is teetering on the brink. The Ukraine, a far larger nation than Latvia, is likewise facing a 12% contraction of its economy. An outstanding debt obligation of $1.7 trillion from Eastern European nations towards the rest of Europe represents a hanging sword over the Euro zone economies.
If even 10% of the debt of Eastern Europe defaults, as many fear including Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the 15 February Daily Telegraph, it can cause a panic in the Western European economies and lead to a global economic collapse.
The Human Toll: 400,000 More Children Projected to Die in 2009
To put the global crisis in perspective, the World Bank now estimates that an an additional 400,000 children around the world will die in 2009 due to their families falling into extreme poverty. That is an increase in the overall global death rate of 6 per 100,000.
It is the equivalent of taking the entire urban population of a city the size of Miami, Florida, or Oakland, California, and starving it to death.
Though times are tight, consider providing to an international relief organization this year. You may save a life, or a whole family.
Markets around the world are reeling at the pressures brought about by the global economic crisis. It cuts across all sectors: financial, credit, manufacturing, exports, energy, transportation, tech. There are few safe haven economies, few stocks, few sectors. According to reports from the Davos conference, the global crisis in the past five tumultuous quarters has already destroyed 40% of the world’s wealth.
Latvia Collapses, Eastern Europe Teeters
In addition, governments are continuing to collapse due to the strain of recession. First there was Iceland. Now the east of Europe braces itself. Latvia is in the throws of a 12% retraction of its economy. Under intense domestic pressure, including violent protests in January, Latvia’s Prime Minister and government resigned on Monday (22 Feb 2009). The IMF plan to rescue its economy is at risk of faltering. Swedish banks, who hold much of Latvia’s debt obligations, are worried over default.
All of Eastern Europe is teetering on the brink. The Ukraine, a far larger nation than Latvia, is likewise facing a 12% contraction of its economy. An outstanding debt obligation of $1.7 trillion from Eastern European nations towards the rest of Europe represents a hanging sword over the Euro zone economies.
If even 10% of the debt of Eastern Europe defaults, as many fear including Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writing in the 15 February Daily Telegraph, it can cause a panic in the Western European economies and lead to a global economic collapse.
The Human Toll: 400,000 More Children Projected to Die in 2009
To put the global crisis in perspective, the World Bank now estimates that an an additional 400,000 children around the world will die in 2009 due to their families falling into extreme poverty. That is an increase in the overall global death rate of 6 per 100,000.
It is the equivalent of taking the entire urban population of a city the size of Miami, Florida, or Oakland, California, and starving it to death.
Though times are tight, consider providing to an international relief organization this year. You may save a life, or a whole family.
Monday, February 23, 2009
Financial Crisis, 23 Feb 2009: Dow 7,114.78, -3.41%
Mountain View, CA (Global Understanding Institute)
Today was another bottom-bursting day for the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJI) plunged 250.89 points, or 4.31%, to settle at 7,114.78. The last time the index closed this low was in 1997, over a decade ago.
The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 (SP500) was also down 26.72, or 3.47%, closing at 743.33. Both indexes are off by about 50% from their highs back in October 2007, and are back to levels of April-May 1997.
The NASDAQ index was also down 53.51, or 3.71%, closing at 1,387.72.
Dow Down and Chernin On the Way Out
Speaking of a falling of the value of the Dow, News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA), the company that bought the venerable Dow Jones corporation for $5 billion in 2007, dropped $0.26, or 4.3%, to close at $5.78.
News Corp announced the planned departure of Peter F. Chernin, its #2 executive under Rupert Murdoch, when his contract comes due in June. Mr. Chernin, a Democrat, was known to have significant contentions with members of the Murdoch family, and with other executives in the Fox News division. This latest plunge brings News Corp down to about a quarter (25.53%) of the value its 52-week high of $22.64.
Stimulus in Time?
In an indirect reply to Republican Governor Jindal of Louisiana, Barack Obama spoke at the National Governors’ Association dinner about whether the stimulus was partisan pork (Jindal’s contention) or bipartisan recognition of necessity (Obama’s position).
Yet there is a sharp rise in concern about the Federal deficit. Overall, 59% of surveyed Americans in a Washington Post-ABC News poll described themselves as “very concerned” with the budget deficit, up 10 percentage points over when President Bush was in office. Under President Bush the U.S. debt grew from approximately $5 trillion to $10 trillion, the projected debt is presently at $10.85 trilion (as per the Brillig.com U.S. National Debt Clock). It is likely to rise to more than $12 trillion in 2009 through bailouts, the stimulus package, and a revenue shortfall due to the recession.
One looming question remains: whether the medicine of the stimulus package can be administered to the patient quick enough to prevent more castastrophic organ failure in the meanwhile. One dire scenario paints a default of the U.S. public debt by summer 2009. China has started to lose its appetite for U.S. dollars, and will have to afford its own $600 billion internal stimulus bill in 2009.
He also needs to, and has pledged to bring down the ballooning Federal deficit so that longer term massive budgetary hemmoraghing can be staunched. It is already at $1.3 trillion and may rise as high as $1.5 - $2 trillion in 2009. Plans released today by the Obama administration set goals of having the deficit to $533 billion by 2013.
In order to pull off this massive restructuring of the U.S. economy, indeed, the global economy, many things have to go right. It will take a combination of best faith efforts, cooperation, innovation, good governance, and the right amount of sheer luck for all the factors to fall into place.
Today was another bottom-bursting day for the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA:DJI) plunged 250.89 points, or 4.31%, to settle at 7,114.78. The last time the index closed this low was in 1997, over a decade ago.
The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 (SP500) was also down 26.72, or 3.47%, closing at 743.33. Both indexes are off by about 50% from their highs back in October 2007, and are back to levels of April-May 1997.
The NASDAQ index was also down 53.51, or 3.71%, closing at 1,387.72.
Dow Down and Chernin On the Way Out
Speaking of a falling of the value of the Dow, News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA), the company that bought the venerable Dow Jones corporation for $5 billion in 2007, dropped $0.26, or 4.3%, to close at $5.78.
News Corp announced the planned departure of Peter F. Chernin, its #2 executive under Rupert Murdoch, when his contract comes due in June. Mr. Chernin, a Democrat, was known to have significant contentions with members of the Murdoch family, and with other executives in the Fox News division. This latest plunge brings News Corp down to about a quarter (25.53%) of the value its 52-week high of $22.64.
Stimulus in Time?
In an indirect reply to Republican Governor Jindal of Louisiana, Barack Obama spoke at the National Governors’ Association dinner about whether the stimulus was partisan pork (Jindal’s contention) or bipartisan recognition of necessity (Obama’s position).
U.S. popular sentiment is overwhelmingly on the President’s side at this time. And that time is limited. A Washington Post-ABC poll projects about two-thirds (64%) of Americans support the $787 billion stimulus bill.You know, when I hear people say, “Well, there’s a lot of waste in this program,” well -- from my perspective at least, keeping teachers in the classroom is not wasteful; from my perspective, tax cuts to 95% of working families is not wasteful; from my perspective, providing all of you additional resources to rebuild roads and bridges and levees and dams that will enhance the quality of life of your state but also make it more economically competitive -- that’s not wasteful.
And so, if we agree on 90% of this stuff, and we’re spending all our time on television arguing about 1, 2, 3 percent of the spending in this thing, and somehow it’s being characterized in broad brush as wasteful spending, that starts sounding more like politics. And that’s what right now we don’t have time to do. ...
— President Barack Obama
Yet there is a sharp rise in concern about the Federal deficit. Overall, 59% of surveyed Americans in a Washington Post-ABC News poll described themselves as “very concerned” with the budget deficit, up 10 percentage points over when President Bush was in office. Under President Bush the U.S. debt grew from approximately $5 trillion to $10 trillion, the projected debt is presently at $10.85 trilion (as per the Brillig.com U.S. National Debt Clock). It is likely to rise to more than $12 trillion in 2009 through bailouts, the stimulus package, and a revenue shortfall due to the recession.
One looming question remains: whether the medicine of the stimulus package can be administered to the patient quick enough to prevent more castastrophic organ failure in the meanwhile. One dire scenario paints a default of the U.S. public debt by summer 2009. China has started to lose its appetite for U.S. dollars, and will have to afford its own $600 billion internal stimulus bill in 2009.
He also needs to, and has pledged to bring down the ballooning Federal deficit so that longer term massive budgetary hemmoraghing can be staunched. It is already at $1.3 trillion and may rise as high as $1.5 - $2 trillion in 2009. Plans released today by the Obama administration set goals of having the deficit to $533 billion by 2013.
In order to pull off this massive restructuring of the U.S. economy, indeed, the global economy, many things have to go right. It will take a combination of best faith efforts, cooperation, innovation, good governance, and the right amount of sheer luck for all the factors to fall into place.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
ƒ((Think+Act)•(Local+National+Regional+Global))
The old “think global, act local” paradigm needs to be both local and global thinking and acting. If we just think about what is going on overseas, and we do not act upon it, it is the political equivalent of the mathematician who mentally solved for preparing a month’s worth of meals and starved to death because he left the implementation of the proof to others. We have to think local and act local. Plus, we have to think global and act upon such thoughts. We also need to think in scalable terms. “Local” can be defined as a neighborhood or village. Or a city, a county, or even a state. There are holistic paradigms beyond the nation as well: regions, alliances, continents. Where do we focus ourselves? Locally? Nationally? Internationally? The right answer is a Boolean “AND” statement.
This global crisis is unprecedented. Because we are mutually interdependent as national and regional economies we cannot just solve our issues at home, or foist them off on others abroad.
There are a few events coming up to deal with economic events, both on a local, national, and global basis:
Local:
If you have more thoughts on the state of the economy in your area or around the world please share your thoughts. We can also use a “Economic Crisis” volunteer group to work more on collective information gathering, analysis and policy work. Please contact us if you would like to share your experience, knowledge, and ideas, and to become involved.
Peter Corless.
petercorless@mac.com
650-906-3134 (mobile)
This global crisis is unprecedented. Because we are mutually interdependent as national and regional economies we cannot just solve our issues at home, or foist them off on others abroad.
There are a few events coming up to deal with economic events, both on a local, national, and global basis:
Local:
- Puppy Love (Economic Recovery Meeting), Mountain View, CA, Saturday, 7 February, 12:00 - 6:00 pm, 551 Chiquita Avenue, Mountain View, CA
- Economic Recovery Potluck (Economic Recovery Meeting), Palo Alto, CA, Sunday, February 8 from 1:00 PM - 3:00 PM, 400 Miramonte Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94306
- Financing the United Nations: More Effective Funding for Global Priorities, 11 February 2009, 9:30 AM - 2:30 PM, Global Policy Forum, New York City
- Forum on the Solidarity Economy 2009: Building Another World, 19-22 March 2009, University of Massachusetts, Amherst
- LUX ’09 International Forum - Globalisation of Solidarity, 22-25 April 2009, Schifflange, Luxembourg
- World Economic Forum, various annual and special events
If you have more thoughts on the state of the economy in your area or around the world please share your thoughts. We can also use a “Economic Crisis” volunteer group to work more on collective information gathering, analysis and policy work. Please contact us if you would like to share your experience, knowledge, and ideas, and to become involved.
Peter Corless.
petercorless@mac.com
650-906-3134 (mobile)
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