Palestinians Seek $2.8 Billion for Reconstruction

On 23 February 2009, the U.S. pledged $900 million in aid to rebuild Gaza. Pooled with other top contributors, including Saudi Arabia ($1 billion) and Qatar ($250 million), would bring pledged support to the coastal strip territory to $2.15 billion.

Yet today it was announced the Palestinians are now seeking a total of $2.8 billion in foreign aid for reconstruction. This assessment is up by nearly 50% from initial estimated damages of $1.9 billion.

Because certain international donors will not deal with Hamas directly, it is likely that aid may be channeled through the Fatah government instead. Thus, the aid donations are being used as a “carrot” to get the two different Palestinian regimes cooperating with each other.

The strategy seems to be succeeding. At least initially. Hamas and Fatah are working to repair rifts between each other. Mutual recriminations are, for now, mostly on hold. Fatah made a goodwill gesture by freeing 42 Hamas loyalists. In response, Hamas leader Izzat Rashaq threatened that Fatah should release more or, “it will turn into a bomb that would explode in the face of Palestinian-Palestinian talks.”

The distrust still runs deep and dangerous. Fatah accuses Hamas of killing and imprisoning dozens of its loyalists during the battles with Israel. Hamas accuses Fatah of acting as spies, feeding Israel information about Hamas positions during the war. Yet for now, even media attacks against each other have been called off.

Meetings today between Fatah and Hamas will determine whether there will be a unity government formed to deal with the crisis.

U.S. Pledges $900 Million in Aid to Gaza

The total cost of the destruction of the war in Gaza was estimated initially at $1.9 billion (see the Global Understanding 19 January 2009 report). Now the U.S. is proposing picking up about half the cost of rebuilding via direct aid to the people of the devastated territory.

The U.S. must balance its involvement carefully. It must avoid fomenting anti-U.S. sentiment and touching off more unrest in the region. It must avoid antagonizing the Hamas-led local government, which will be made even more complex because the U.S. will not allow the donated funds to be handled by the Hamas government. It may stand accused of working as a collaborator with Israel for the political-economic control of the area.

Other Arab nations are also donating funds. Saudi Arabia is putting in $1 billion. Qatar is donating $250 million, and added another $30 million to U.N. projects in Gaza.

This puts the total pledged contributions to rebuild Gaza from three donors alone at over the recent estimations of damages: $1 billion (Saudi Arabia) + $900 m (U.S.) + $250 m (Qatar) = $2.15 billion pledges vs. $1.9 billion damages.

However, such pledges still need to be approved by the U.S. Congress, which is faced with a gigantic U.S. deficit and a local economic crisis of its own to deal with.

Financial aid may or may not be welcomed. It may or may not be siezed or diverted from its intended use. Many variables remain between the proverbial road paved with good intentions and the creation of actual paved roads.

Lastly, it must be recognized that any amount of economic contribution cannot ever directly heal the psychic traumas suffered by the population, fully heal the crippled and wounded, or raise the dead. There will be animosities, distrusts, and underminings of efforts for years to come. Such pains and hard hearts will be require time for any deep trust and for a lasting truce to build.

Gaza Withdrawal: Revised Casualty Figure: 1,284 Dead, 4,336 Wounded?

Israeli troops complete pullout from Gaza Strip

JERUSALEM (Associated Press) – Israel's last troops left the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, although the cease-fire was frayed when its navy opened fire toward beaches in northern Gaza, and smugglers' tunnels that were targeted in the 23-day campaign against Hamas were active again at the Egyptian border. [Read More]

The patterns which had fueled the most recent conflict are beginning again, in many ways returning back to status quo ante. The porous Egyptian border is being used to create a black and grey market for goods.

Returning life to the way things were before a war is generally considered good, when it is a resumption of normal, peaceful civilian life. If it is the resumptions of clandestine arms shipments and other illicit trading, then there will be little accomplished by the offensive to have curbed the systemic hostilities.

The Israeli government has conceded to open an investigation into allegations that white phosphorus (WP) was used against civilian populations. This may have impacts upon the United States’ own behavior, considering the controversy surrounding the use of white phosphorus by U.S. forces in Fallujah in 2005. Amnesty International’s Briefing on Applicable Law on Gaza clarifies the argument in terms of standards of international law.

First war tally: 1,284 Gazans dead, 4,336 wounded

KHAN YOUNIS (Associated Press), Gaza Strip – Squatting in the rubble, his briefcase perched atop his knees, the human rights researcher interviewed residents of a house shelled by Israel as he compiled a list of Gazans killed and wounded during Israel's offensive against Hamas.

Yasser Abdel Ghafar's work is part of a painstaking endeavor by the Palestinian Center for Human Rights to count the casualties of the 23-day war. The group released a final tally Wednesday, saying 1,284 Gazans were killed and 4,336 wounded, the vast majority civilians. [Read More]

The good news, such as it is, contends that according to these revised casualty figures, less people are dead and wounded than first reported. These revised figures from the Palestinian Center for Human Rights bring down the initial reports of 1,324 dead and 5,400 wounded. However, that latter figure is still the one cited by the Health Ministry. The difference comes from what constitutes a “casualty.” The ministry counted psychological trauma as well as physical injury, where the rights center did not. The rights group also contends the Health Ministry double-counted certain casualties.

Israel, for its part, disputes both figures, stating both reports severely undercount the number of combatants. It will take time to sort the truth from the propaganda. Yet for now, children are still having pieces of white phosphorus picked out of their wounds, detected only when smoke started pouring out from under their bandages.

Gaza Conflict Ceasefire: After 22 Days, 1,300 Dead, 5,400 Wounded

(CNN) -- More than 1,300 Palestinians died and about 5,400 others were wounded during Israel's three-week offensive in Gaza, the Web site of the Palestinian Authority's Central Bureau of Statistics said Monday.

Louay Shabana, head of the agency, said more than 22,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed. Shabana put the economic destruction at more than $1.9 billion.

A Palestinian man Monday prays in the rubble of his home, destroyed during Israel's offensive in Gaza.

While in the United States, citizens are preparing to usher in the 44th President with a gala inauguration, in Gaza, the rubble is just beginning to be sifted. More bodies will appear beneath the broken buildings.

Of the dead, 159, or 12.2%, were children.

The assessment of the damage at $1.9 billion is up from a $1.4 billion assessment on January 14, the 19th day of fighting. That is a 35.7% increase in assessed damage in the final days of the war. This could either represent a far greater amount of damage done in the last days of the war, or, more likely, a more complete survey of the damage inflicted which could only be accomplished once people had more of a chance to walk around in safety to inspect all of the buildings and infrastructure.

The estimated $1.9 billion in damage suffered in 22 days accounts for 38% of the Gaza Strip’s GDP. Presuming, of course, that its GDP for 2009 does not collapse given the international banking crisis, the 85% decline in the economy during the conduct of the war, and the consequent sufferance of the economy thereafter given the physical devastation.

The one-upsmanship and tit-for-tat in the propaganda machine continues. Both sides refused to agree to a cease fire with each other. Yet both independently and unilaterally declared a cease fire. Predictably, both sides are now claiming victory. Yet it is difficult for the ordinary Palestinian to consider their ruins and dead as “victorious” in any sense but Pyrrhic.

Consider supporting an aid agency of your choice committed to the Gaza crisis, such as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) or Save the Children.

Gaza Day 22: 1,203 Palestinians Dead, 5,300 Wounded; Israel Plans Unilateral Ceasefire

GAZA (Reuters) – Israel plans to halt its Gaza offensive without any deal with Hamas, an Israeli official said on Saturday, in an apparent effort to deny the Islamist group any gains from the three-week-old conflict.

Hamas leaders in exile have vowed to fight on, but many of the 1.5 million Palestinians enduring incessant bombardment and privation in Gaza seemed desperate for their ordeal to end.

"The goal is to announce, subject to cabinet approval, a suspension of military activities because we believe our goals have been attained," said the official, asking not to be named.

In today’s most recent developments, two more children have died at a U.N. school, killed by an Israeli tank shell fired in overnight fighting. That seems an ironically sharp twist to the comment “our goals have been attained.”

It is not one of the stated goals of the Israeli offensive to kill women and children. It just so happens that such results are inseparable byproducts of their military actions.

“These two little boys are as innocent, indisputably, as they are dead.”

—John Ging, head of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Gaza.

The Hamas leadership in Lebanon (Osama Hamdan) and Syria (Mohammed Nazzal, Khaled Meshaal) said fighting will continue until Hamas’ demands are met. Demonstrations in the West Bank in support of Hamas, however, have been monitored or broken up by the Palestinian Authority and are not now widely attended. In Israel, Palestinians and pro-peace Israelis have been shot at, shouted at, or otherwise dissuaded from public opposition. The demonstrations in the West Bank are now less militant for action against Israel, and more for a call of unity and reconciliation amongst Palestinians.

Jews Speaking Out Against Israel

Jews themselves are growing in opposition to the war. Canadian Jewish women occupied the Israeli consulate in Toronto. Protests have occurred in the U.S. and U.K. Gerald Kaufman, a Jewish Member of Parliament for the Labour Party, spoke out against Israel vehemently. Referring to his own grandmother, shot in bed by German soldiers during the Second World War, he compared her legacy to modern Israeli violence committed against Palestinians:

“My grandmother did not die to provide cover for Israeli soldiers murdering Palestinian grandmothers in Gaza. The present Israeli government ruthless and cynically exploits the continuing guilt from Gentiles over the slaughter of Jews in the Holocaust as justification for their murder of Palestinians. The implication is that Jewish lives are precious, but the lives of Palestinians do not count.”

Amongst the voices in opposition to the Israeli offensive is Canadian journalist Jesse Rosenfeld, who describes himself as “Jewish and Anti-Zionist.” His proposition for a solution to the crisis echoes Hamas’ requirements: “It is the same solution as before: if Israel would withdraw its siege, withdraw its troops and open the Gaza borders like the Palestinians in Gaza have demanded, there would not be a war right now.”

Israel’s counter-argument has been that the siege was a response to Hamas rocket fire. It is a chicken-and-the-egg argument of nationstate tit-for-tat. “You started it.” “No, you started it.”

Rosenfeld likewise opined, “Israel's goals in this war are not something they will achieve. They will not get Hamas to agree to stop the rocket-fire. That is something that will only come politically. Eventually it will have to get to that point, but Israel will kill a lot more Palestinians in the process.”

Mutually Assured Mass Manipulation

Both Israel and Hamas are intentionally ignoring the dirty secrets and blatant truths, overstating or understating their actions and positions to garner international support. Propaganda is nothing new. Each of the powers-that-be are playing to the gallery and shedding crocodile tears.

The casualties, however, are real.

Today I shall leave the final comments to Bill Moyers.

Gaza Day 20: 1,105 Palestinian Dead, 5,100 Wounded; Lull in Fighting

GAZA (Reuters) – Israel said its Gaza offensive could be "in the final act" on Friday as it dispatched envoys to discuss truce terms after Hamas made a ceasefire offer to end three weeks of fighting that has killed more than 1,100 people.

Today, rocket fire from Hamas was non-existent. Israel hit another 40 targets in Gaza, including attacks on U.N. facilities, which Israel has expressed remorse over. Many more were killed in fighting. The civilian death toll now stands at around 700.

In the most recent rocket attacks on Thursday, Hamas managed to wound six Israelis. The absence of their firing on Friday may represent a willingness of Hamas to let diplomacy to work.

Gaza Day 19: 1,010 Dead, 4,700 Wounded; 13 Israelis Dead.

GAZA (Reuters) – Hamas officials were negotiating a ceasefire on Wednesday as Israeli forces kept up the pressure on the Islamists in the Gaza Strip, where the Palestinian death toll rose above 1,000 after 19 days of air and ground attacks.

The Gaza-based Palestinian Center for Human rights said more than 670 civilians were among the dead. Ten Israeli soldiers and three civilians hit by rockets fired from the Gaza Strip have been killed since Israel launched its campaign on December 27.

In Northern Israel, rockets were fired from Lebanon at Israel’s north border region. Such attacks have been increasing over the past week. Osama bin Laden also released a tape calling for others to join in this as jihad, or holy struggle.

This remains an issue of national will. Leaders have a penchant to be willing to fight to the strength of their last adherent. Israel, who is in overall control of the tempo of military operations, seems to be willing to punitively kill anyone taking up arms against their incursion.

Political drama is at play here. In many ways, the Palestinians are playing the role of victim, decrying the attacks after firing rockets at the Israelis. The Israelis are playing the role of victim, showing the attacks upon their land while brutally repressing the Palestinians. Both, while claiming to be victims, are also claiming to be strong in the face of their enemies. Gaza is willing to accept the cost of the war in terms of life and destruction to the infrastructure and economy. Israel is willing to accept the cost in terms of international relations, and economic costs of the offensive. Which are not insignificant. Ynet.com estimated the cost of this war at $265 million over the first six days, and the per-day-of-fighting cost rising to $52 million. The cost of the war would surely have risen since then based on the commitment of additional forces.

Let’s do some quick estimation via mathematics:

6 days @ $29-39 million/day = $265 million subtotal
13 days @ $52 million/day = $676 million subtotal
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19 days fighting = $951 million total

The IDF had an auxilliary budget of $211 million in reserve as contingency for such operations. Yet this fund likely was already spent in the first week of fighting. There has also been a cost of $9 million in property damage in Israel, and, including retail losses, the total civilian economy cost is likely about $16 million per week. That is a significant rise in the rate of civilian cost. Over the past three years, the residents of the region near Gaza had been compensated NIS 143 million ($36.44 million) for direct and indirect losses.

This has caused the Israeli shekel to have fallen in world currency markets, as Israel is expected to assume debts to fund the war.

It sounds almost reptilian. Chilling to consider one might simply compare over 1,000 deaths, and 5,700 casualties total, to the loss of about a billion dollars in money, and a percentage hit on one’s currency valuation. But there you have it. The cost of this war to Israel has been $951 million dollars, for the infliction of 5,700 casualties upon Gaza (both military and civilian).

That is a cost of approximately $167,000 per casualty inflicted.

In return, one could consider the cost Hamas has burdened to inflict the 13 casualties on Israel. Right now, it is incalculable. The destruction of its property, the ruination of its civic institutions and governmental facilities, and the degredation of its economy has no methodology or mechanism for tracking right now. The personal and societal cost to be burdened by Gaza is surely in the hundreds of millions or billions. Yet we have no estimation at this point, and insufficient evidence to begin to calculate it. In the aftermath of the war, however, the cost of this war will sink in, as families and businesses across Gaza try to rebuild.

This is what happens when war mentality sets in. The cost of war, the price, the toll it takes, means little if one expects to be dead when the bill comes due. Winning is all that matters. Not the cost of that victory.

I learned an expression a long while ago while working at West End Games as a strategic simulation game designer. “All generals study tactics. Good generals study strategy. Great generals study logistics.”

One would hope the various commanders on all sides review the cost of this war, and in the end, realize the price of peace is far less, and the benefits of coexistence much more appealing.