Swat Valley: The Pot Boils Over

Any pretensions for an uneasy truce in the Swat Valley between the Pakistani government and the Taliban came to an abrupt end today, as the Taliban began to seize government buildings, and fighting erupted in Mingora, the main city of the valley.

Taliban militants began to siege the police building and many government offices were taken over. 46 government paramilitaries were reported to still hold the city’s electrical grid station. At least 18 civilians were reported wounded in the crossfire. Over the past week, sporadic fighting and casualties were reported around many other districts of Malakand, a region in Pakistan’s Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). That fighting now seems to be intensifying considerably across the NWFP and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Indeed, the government is encouraging citizens to flee for their safety, according to reports from Al Jazeera. CNN reports that a major offensive may begin as soon as Wednesday, 6 May 2009. As soon as the government warning was issued, residents of Mingora began to pile on buses to escape the expected fighting. The Pakistani government predicts that as many as 500,000 people may flee the region in coming days.

This number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) would exceed the numbers that fled in the wake of prior conflicts in the Swat Valley last year. In February 2009, it was reported that over 337,000 had fled ahead of the fighting. Though most of those returned to their homes after the cease fire between the Taliban and the government.

Forces Involved

UPDATE: Taliban forces cited in the AP as 7,000; Pakistani military forces at 15,000. (6 May 2009)

• Taliban: The militants are believed to have forces of about 7,000 insurgents in the Swat Valley and environs. According to the Pakistani military, 400 Taliban had advanced into the Buner area and had put up stiff resistance. Many of those were killed in the past week’s counterinsurgency by government forces.

• Pakistani military: Frontier Corps province forces bolstered by heavy armor, artillery and paratroopers positioned around the Swat Valley in preparation for an offensive. Totaling approximately 15,000 troops. While the Pakistani Army has a total force of 550,000 regular troops, there has not yet been a dramatic shift in defensive posture in the nation. About half of Pakistan’s forces, approximately 250,000 soldiers, remain deployed against the border with India, Pakistan’s traditional enemy.

• Pakistani police: This force has proven so far to be the least reliable of the government forces. When the Taliban first advanced through the Swat Valley region, 700 of total 1,700 police officers abandoned their posts. However, they are regrouping since their initial defeats. In the NWFP capital of Peshawar, antiterrorist police forces killed 88 suspected terrorists in the past few months.
  

The Taliban claims that it now controls 90% of Swat. However, if it spread its 7,000 troops across the Swat district, which is 5,337 square km (an area about the size of the state of Delaware), that would equate to a bit more than 1 man per square kilometer. It is unlikely there are any Taliban in much of the province. Instead, based on various reports, the more likely situation is that the Taliban are grouped in central locations: blocking major roads, seizing strategic facilities and key strongpoints, and patrolling the capital and other urban areas.

The question for both sides will be the amount of resolve, numbers, and reserves they bring with them to the conflict. This is not the first time the Pakistani military has attempted to wrest back control of Swat Valley. In the past, the Taliban has been able to keep control of this central and key region.

This time seems different. The government and the Pakistani people seem to be recognizing the degree to which the government has lost control of its territory. And the people of Swat seem somewhat reticent to greet the Taliban as welcome liberators. Part of this may be due to the presence of foreign fighters: Uzbeks and Tajiks.

Prospects for Peace

Not good, to begin with. The Taliban seem unapologetic and ready for a fight. For its own part, the Pakistani military seems ready to flex its considerable muscles and is likewise ready for a fight, albeit somewhat reluctantly.

The Taliban has been, so far, the mouse that roared. Its few thousand irregular insurgents, armed with the ubiquitous small arms of AK-47 and RPGs, have in the past beaten off poorly-paid Pakistani provincial forces, police and paramilitaries. Now, the regular Pakistani military seems to be bringing out, quite literally, its big guns for the upcoming fight.

Pakistan's Swat Valley Simmers

In Pakistan’s northern Swat Valley this week, the Pakistani Army and the Taliban have both been pushing and prodding each other in a turf war. Likewise, the Pakistani Army went on the full offensive across Swat, Buner and Dir.

The Army announced that it had recently killed 80 militants, including local Taliban commanders; a total of 170 - 200 have been killed since the Army’s offensive was launched on 26 April. The Taliban retaliated by beheading two captured soldiers.

Furthermore, as proof of the violation of the peace deal brokered earlier in the year, the Pakistani Army announced it had captured three Taliban vehicles filled with explosives that were to be used in suicide attacks. Plus, a bank had been looted, the power grid had been attacked, and a bridge was partially blown up, all laid at the doorstep of the Taliban and its forces. Overnight curfews have been imposed, but the Taliban has taken to patrolling the streets with their own armed soldiers.

Eight Islamic Sharia-law judges, known as qazis, have been appointed, and a new Sharia appellate court, called the Darul Qaza, has been established. Yet the Taliban is rejecting these government measures.

The Pakistani government, for its part, seems to be preparing to use this week’s news as collective proof of the government’s good faith, and to regard the Taliban’s actions as a broach of the agreement, thereby possibly opening up a full resumption of military activities.

Indeed, according to Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Information Minister Sufi Muhammed, with the establishment of the new Sharia-based qazi courts, “Now anyone carrying arms would be treated as a rebel and would be prosecuted in the qazi court.” It is unlikely that the Taliban will comply with this government edict.

A major concern for the conflict is the prospect of civilian casualties and refugees. According to the Sunday Times, 2,000 hostages are being held as human shields in Pir Baba. The unrest has caused 90,000 refugees to flee the conflict zones in the NFWP; 30,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) were caused from the fighting in Lower Dir alone. However, the Pakistani government has been somewhat obscure on civilian casualties.

The Voice of America did not go into specifics of threats to the civilian populace, other than the passing reference to the execution of three civilians, instead focusing on the advance of Pakistani troops to the borders of Swat itself. If the Pakistani government declares the deal with the Taliban forfeit due to numerous violations, it is to be expected those troops will advance into the Swat Valley.

U.S. Pledges $900 Million in Aid to Gaza

The total cost of the destruction of the war in Gaza was estimated initially at $1.9 billion (see the Global Understanding 19 January 2009 report). Now the U.S. is proposing picking up about half the cost of rebuilding via direct aid to the people of the devastated territory.

The U.S. must balance its involvement carefully. It must avoid fomenting anti-U.S. sentiment and touching off more unrest in the region. It must avoid antagonizing the Hamas-led local government, which will be made even more complex because the U.S. will not allow the donated funds to be handled by the Hamas government. It may stand accused of working as a collaborator with Israel for the political-economic control of the area.

Other Arab nations are also donating funds. Saudi Arabia is putting in $1 billion. Qatar is donating $250 million, and added another $30 million to U.N. projects in Gaza.

This puts the total pledged contributions to rebuild Gaza from three donors alone at over the recent estimations of damages: $1 billion (Saudi Arabia) + $900 m (U.S.) + $250 m (Qatar) = $2.15 billion pledges vs. $1.9 billion damages.

However, such pledges still need to be approved by the U.S. Congress, which is faced with a gigantic U.S. deficit and a local economic crisis of its own to deal with.

Financial aid may or may not be welcomed. It may or may not be siezed or diverted from its intended use. Many variables remain between the proverbial road paved with good intentions and the creation of actual paved roads.

Lastly, it must be recognized that any amount of economic contribution cannot ever directly heal the psychic traumas suffered by the population, fully heal the crippled and wounded, or raise the dead. There will be animosities, distrusts, and underminings of efforts for years to come. Such pains and hard hearts will be require time for any deep trust and for a lasting truce to build.

Gaza Withdrawal: Revised Casualty Figure: 1,284 Dead, 4,336 Wounded?

Israeli troops complete pullout from Gaza Strip

JERUSALEM (Associated Press) – Israel's last troops left the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, although the cease-fire was frayed when its navy opened fire toward beaches in northern Gaza, and smugglers' tunnels that were targeted in the 23-day campaign against Hamas were active again at the Egyptian border. [Read More]

The patterns which had fueled the most recent conflict are beginning again, in many ways returning back to status quo ante. The porous Egyptian border is being used to create a black and grey market for goods.

Returning life to the way things were before a war is generally considered good, when it is a resumption of normal, peaceful civilian life. If it is the resumptions of clandestine arms shipments and other illicit trading, then there will be little accomplished by the offensive to have curbed the systemic hostilities.

The Israeli government has conceded to open an investigation into allegations that white phosphorus (WP) was used against civilian populations. This may have impacts upon the United States’ own behavior, considering the controversy surrounding the use of white phosphorus by U.S. forces in Fallujah in 2005. Amnesty International’s Briefing on Applicable Law on Gaza clarifies the argument in terms of standards of international law.

First war tally: 1,284 Gazans dead, 4,336 wounded

KHAN YOUNIS (Associated Press), Gaza Strip – Squatting in the rubble, his briefcase perched atop his knees, the human rights researcher interviewed residents of a house shelled by Israel as he compiled a list of Gazans killed and wounded during Israel's offensive against Hamas.

Yasser Abdel Ghafar's work is part of a painstaking endeavor by the Palestinian Center for Human Rights to count the casualties of the 23-day war. The group released a final tally Wednesday, saying 1,284 Gazans were killed and 4,336 wounded, the vast majority civilians. [Read More]

The good news, such as it is, contends that according to these revised casualty figures, less people are dead and wounded than first reported. These revised figures from the Palestinian Center for Human Rights bring down the initial reports of 1,324 dead and 5,400 wounded. However, that latter figure is still the one cited by the Health Ministry. The difference comes from what constitutes a “casualty.” The ministry counted psychological trauma as well as physical injury, where the rights center did not. The rights group also contends the Health Ministry double-counted certain casualties.

Israel, for its part, disputes both figures, stating both reports severely undercount the number of combatants. It will take time to sort the truth from the propaganda. Yet for now, children are still having pieces of white phosphorus picked out of their wounds, detected only when smoke started pouring out from under their bandages.

Gaza Conflict Ceasefire: After 22 Days, 1,300 Dead, 5,400 Wounded

(CNN) -- More than 1,300 Palestinians died and about 5,400 others were wounded during Israel's three-week offensive in Gaza, the Web site of the Palestinian Authority's Central Bureau of Statistics said Monday.

Louay Shabana, head of the agency, said more than 22,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed. Shabana put the economic destruction at more than $1.9 billion.

A Palestinian man Monday prays in the rubble of his home, destroyed during Israel's offensive in Gaza.

While in the United States, citizens are preparing to usher in the 44th President with a gala inauguration, in Gaza, the rubble is just beginning to be sifted. More bodies will appear beneath the broken buildings.

Of the dead, 159, or 12.2%, were children.

The assessment of the damage at $1.9 billion is up from a $1.4 billion assessment on January 14, the 19th day of fighting. That is a 35.7% increase in assessed damage in the final days of the war. This could either represent a far greater amount of damage done in the last days of the war, or, more likely, a more complete survey of the damage inflicted which could only be accomplished once people had more of a chance to walk around in safety to inspect all of the buildings and infrastructure.

The estimated $1.9 billion in damage suffered in 22 days accounts for 38% of the Gaza Strip’s GDP. Presuming, of course, that its GDP for 2009 does not collapse given the international banking crisis, the 85% decline in the economy during the conduct of the war, and the consequent sufferance of the economy thereafter given the physical devastation.

The one-upsmanship and tit-for-tat in the propaganda machine continues. Both sides refused to agree to a cease fire with each other. Yet both independently and unilaterally declared a cease fire. Predictably, both sides are now claiming victory. Yet it is difficult for the ordinary Palestinian to consider their ruins and dead as “victorious” in any sense but Pyrrhic.

Consider supporting an aid agency of your choice committed to the Gaza crisis, such as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) or Save the Children.

Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA): 620 Dead, 400 Abducted, 100,000 Refugees

Readers Caution: The following report contains graphic descriptions of brutality and violence.

While Gaza maintains the top headlines, deep in the bowels of Africa the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has spread its brand of violence across four nations. Uganda, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo), and the Central African Republic (CAR) have all reported violent attacks and increasing incursions.

Since an offensive started during the Christmas Massacres of 2008, 620 are dead, 400 were abducted, and 100,000 refugees have fled their homes. The death toll is difficult to establish. The figure of 620 comes from a report released today by Human Rights Watch. It covers the period from 24 December 2008 to 13 January 2009. Other organizations have cited 400 or 500. The latter figure was used by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) condemnation of the events occurring. Yet one this is certain: the number is rising.

Yet the UNSC has little direct sway over events. The Lord’s Resistance Army is not a member of the United Nations. Thus sanctions and threats hold little influence over their actions. The facts on the ground show who has power. And the LRA is not withholding any of its power, which it has unleashed upon innocent people region-wide.

Disfigurement, dismemberment, looting, raping, sexual slavery, kidnapping, and the burning of schools, churchs, even whole villages make it sound like this was a modern day advent of the Vikings. Some science fiction dystopia. But this is not a historical textbook or a Hollywood movie. This is true, raw human brutality. Bats and axes used to cause the mass-murders have been found left behind at the scenes of carnage.

“Hundreds of people have been slaughtered and this just goes on,” said Joel Bisubu of Justice Plus. “We need food and medical supplies for the injured, but even more, we need protection.”

Justice Plus is a Congolese NGO. Joel Bisubu is quite familiar with the carnage of Sub-Saharan Africa, having reported on it for years.

“People are forced to choose between peace and justice. But you can't have peace without justice. The people who are dead are dead. But if you try to compromise peace for justice, that doesn't help.”

— Joel Bisubu, regarding the Congolese civil war, 2006

Human Rights Watch, though, backdates the latest outbreak of violence to a combined offensive begun by Uganda, with the support of Sudan, Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo:

“The LRA attacks followed the beginning of a joint military operation on December 14, led by the Ugandan army with support from the Congolese, Southern Sudanese, and Central African Republic armies. The Ugandan army attacked the LRA headquarters in Congo's Garamba National Park, near the border with Sudan.

Following the attack, the LRA dispersed into several groups, each of which targeted civilians along its path. The rebels waited until December 24 for the most devastating of their attacks, waiting until people had come together for Christmas festivities, then surrounding and killing them by crushing their skulls with axes, machetes, and large wooden bats. Most of the few who survived also had head wounds, but two 3-year-old girls had serious neck injuries, suffered when LRA combatants tried to twist off their heads.

In the village of Batande, three miles from Doruma, near the Sudanese border, the LRA killed at least 80 people on December 25 when village residents had gathered for Christmas lunch after the morning church service. LRA members surrounded the people, tied them up with rope or rubber strips from bicycle tires, and then separated the men and boys from the women and girls. They took the men and boys about 40 meters from the church and killed them immediately with blows to the head. They took the women and girls into the forest in small groups and raped many of them before crushing their skulls.”

It is obvious that “Operation Lighting Thunder” the military offensive designed to purge the region or force the LRA to sign a peace deal, only stirred the hornet’s nest. After the 14 December campaign opened against them, all pretense of ethical behavior and all the laws of war were thrown out the window. Any Christian beliefs once espoused by the Lord’s Resistance Army were buried alongside the bloody bodies and burned up in the flames of torched houses of worship.

Episcopal Reaction in Sudan

The death of a Christian lay reader, Wilson, who tried to rescue two young boys abducted in the Episcopal Diocese of Mundri, has spurred a call to action. Matthew Davies of Episcopal Life covers the story in full detail, including more history regarding the conflict. His article describes how Wilson and another young man learned that the LRA had kidnapped two children, and set off in pursuit. When they caught up to the LRA, they were brutally killed. Yet in a way, Wilson’s efforts succeeded. The boys, though horribly traumatized by the event, were left alive alongside the road by the departing soldiers.

Others have not been so lucky. A reverend’s daughter abducted along with 11 others from a village. Entire villages of elderly people, women and children being forced to flee dozens of miles head of the fighting. The dead and the wounded.

Alexander Baumgarten, international policy analyst for the Episcopal Church's Office of Government Relations, has called for U.S. Episcopalians and others to focus their support on two particular partner organizations: Resolve Uganda and Enough! Project. While the news is very grim, the summation of optimism can still be found in the words of Janet O’Neill, of Episcopal Relief and Development:

"We need to act to shine whatever light can be brought into this dark, dark situation. We must pray for peace, advocate for peace, demand that politicians in the region pursue a settlement with the LRA. We must mobilize resources to ensure that the lack of food and shelter can be met and the basic humanitarian needs are provided."

— Janette O'Neill, Episcopal Relief and Development Fund

The key question is whether a settlement can be achieved with people who commit such atrocities with impunity. While it would be heartening to see true Christ-like conversions to a life of peace and goodwill from an existance of rapine and murder, many of the soldiers of the Lord’s Resistance Army are not likely to give up the lifestyles they have become accustomed to. It is time work towards such miracles for the people of Africa.

Gaza Day 20: 1,105 Palestinian Dead, 5,100 Wounded; Lull in Fighting

GAZA (Reuters) – Israel said its Gaza offensive could be "in the final act" on Friday as it dispatched envoys to discuss truce terms after Hamas made a ceasefire offer to end three weeks of fighting that has killed more than 1,100 people.

Today, rocket fire from Hamas was non-existent. Israel hit another 40 targets in Gaza, including attacks on U.N. facilities, which Israel has expressed remorse over. Many more were killed in fighting. The civilian death toll now stands at around 700.

In the most recent rocket attacks on Thursday, Hamas managed to wound six Israelis. The absence of their firing on Friday may represent a willingness of Hamas to let diplomacy to work.