Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Financial Crisis, 25 Feb 2009: Dow 7,270.89, -80 (-1.09%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sagged again the day after President Barack Obama made his first speech to a joint session of Congress.

The index closed at 7,270.89, down 80.05, off -1.09%. In intraday trading, the index had early in the day slammed down to 7,156.68, and spent the rest of the day trying to rise. Just before 3:30 pm New York time, the Dow hit 7,404.94 for the intraday high. In the last minutes of the day, it suddenly backslid 130 points.

Each trading day during this past week, the market has been pressing at a “floor” of 7,200, searching for support. If the Dow can establish this as a firm basis of trading is uncertain. It has broken through that floor each day, closing below it on Monday. It recovered and closed above the 7,200 mark in the past two days.

For most of December, the index had a “floor” of about 8,500. It briefly peaked at over 9,000 in the first week of January. After that, the lastest phase of hemorrhaging began.

From 20 January to 9 February, the “floor” sunk to around 8,000. Since 10 February, the index dropped further, breaking the 8,000 mark. It hovered around 7,500 on 17-18 February, then bounced like a half-inflated ball down to the range of 7,100 - 7,400.

It is still too early to tell how the market will shift next. Some commodity prices, like gold, have stabilized or drifted downwards, while others are heading up again, like oil.

As technical analysis fails in the face of raw numbers and statistics, it is possible for rhetoric, public goodwill and trust, as well as firm and necessary action, to turn the tide of events. Therefore, today’s analysis will leave the new U.S. President with the last word:
If we come together and lift this nation from the depths of this crisis; if we put our people back to work and restart the engine of our prosperity; if we confront without fear the challenges of our time and summon that enduring spirit of an America that does not quit, then someday years from now our children can tell their children that this was the time when we performed, in the words that are carved into this very chamber, “something worthy to be remembered.”
— President Barack Obama

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